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The unfairness of mog bonanza towards PS2 playersFollow

#227 Jul 03 2008 at 6:09 AM Rating: Good
Here you go.

Smiley: popcorn Smiley: boozing

Cheers!

Edited, Jul 3rd 2008 10:09am by catwho
#228 Jul 03 2008 at 6:14 AM Rating: Good
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The best part is how people don't understand that when gambling, the house always has the advantage, but do go on.

Smiley: popcorn
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#229 Jul 03 2008 at 7:02 AM Rating: Decent
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Thayos wrote:


You guys are talking like ALL ps2 users relied on the moogle, and that simply couldn't be further from the truth.



I play on PS2 and let the moogle pick 19/20 of my marbles. I don't really care about lack of winning but I feel that I was not fairly treated. When the bonanza was announced, three methods were presented for choosing numbers, one of which was letting the moogle pick. In this announcement, each method was portrayed as equally likely to win.

If the PS2 did not randomly generate numbers with the same available pool as the winning number came from, then the moogle generated numbers I received were not fair.

If you're going to have a lottery system that works everyone needs to play by the same rules. The fact that only PS2 users experienced this issue is another reason why the whole lotto was not fair. Then again, anyone who expects fairness from SE is bound to be disappointed.
#230 Jul 03 2008 at 7:02 AM Rating: Good
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Quote:
The best part is how people don't understand that when gambling, the house always has the advantage, but do go on.


There is a large difference between this and the house advantage. With house advantage you're not giving particular people advantages over everyone else on top of the advantage the house already has.

To compare this to gambling would more be like having a blackjack table where people in the second seat will always be given cards that add up to 22+
#231 Jul 03 2008 at 7:19 AM Rating: Decent
dandantlm wrote:
Totally messed up!! That explains why out of 30 marbles all I got was 2 ranks 5 items.


No, you only got 2 rank 5 prizes because the winning numbers were not what you got.

LOL it seems my fanclub is crossforum now haah.
#232 Jul 03 2008 at 7:22 AM Rating: Default
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Quote:
To compare this to gambling would more be like having a blackjack table where people in the second seat will always be given cards that add up to 22+


Your comparison assumes that SE had no chance of picking an EOEOE or OEOEO number. A better comparison would be that the second seat always gets a 16. Very low chance of winning, but still a chance if the dealer busts.

Of course, that example is flawed as well, because it assumes you didn't have an equal chance to win... and you did.

I'm not saying that this issue isn't an issue. It is. These numbers were assumed to be "random" and unfortunately followed a pattern. Patterns aren't random.

However, don't pretend that you didn't have a chance of winning. The fact that you DID NOT WIN does not prove that you COULD NOT HAVE WON. I didn't win either... and my numbers were generated on the 360. Does that mean I should be mad? No. I still had a chance.

Any EOEOE number is still a 1 in 10,000 chance of winning no matter how you look at it. You cannot use the final outcome to argue that you didn't have a chance to win. Anyone who didn't win can make that argument.

The only error here is that the randomness of the numbers was misrepresented. You still had the same chance to win. It sucks, sure. I didn't win either. Let's drop it.

Further discussion of this issue only shows a failure to accept reality.

Edited, Jul 3rd 2008 10:26am by shanecf

Edited, Jul 3rd 2008 10:30am by shanecf
#233 Jul 03 2008 at 7:26 AM Rating: Decent
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364 posts
As if this is the first thing that indicated playing on a PS2 is inferior to a PC or XBox360. Hell, even Sony quit supporting the HDD years ago. Be grateful that SE still supports and updates the game at all on that ancient piece of hardware. Programming for the PS2 isn't the same as a 360 or PC. Of course the RNG was going to be different, and attribute the poor job done more to laziness rather than some whacked out conspiracy theory that SE is "out to get PS2 players". It isn't as if PS2 players were stripped of their opportunity to pick their own numbers. Some people chose to let the system do the work for them. Well the games aren't mirror images of each other on every platform. There have always been game glitches specific to each one, so deal with it or get one of the other platforms if the one you are using is unfair to you.
#234 Jul 03 2008 at 7:28 AM Rating: Good
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PlanckZero wrote:
Quote:
The best part is how people don't understand that when gambling, the house always has the advantage, but do go on.


There is a large difference between this and the house advantage. With house advantage you're not giving particular people advantages over everyone else on top of the advantage the house already has.

To compare this to gambling would more be like having a blackjack table where people in the second seat will always be given cards that add up to 22+


That's not really true either. Because unless you are absolutely certain SE intentionally chose numbers out of the range, there was still a chance to win. It's more like the cards you're given always add up to 17. 17 can still win, but it's less likely. Yet at the same time, the guy next to you can get 17, but can also get 18, 19, 20 & 21. He's much more likely to win, but you still have a chance.
#235 Jul 03 2008 at 7:36 AM Rating: Default
Fynlar, I have the results of your analysis.

There is only one possible diagnostic: you suffer from a severe case of idiocy.

There is no known cure for that, expect to die in a funny way in the coming months and make appropriate preparations: ask your family or neighbours to relate your death to the Darwin Awards.

Edited, Jul 3rd 2008 11:37am by NotASock
#236 Jul 03 2008 at 9:44 AM Rating: Decent
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805 posts
Math is hard! Lets go shopping!

Its amazing how little attention people are paying to the math facts. See my earlier post. Assuming that SE picked a number at random (conspiracy theorists can now join in), a PS2 Moogle user had exactly the same odds as anyone else, even though it seems counter intuitive.



Edited, Jul 3rd 2008 1:45pm by Lokithor
#237 Jul 03 2008 at 11:24 AM Rating: Decent
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252 posts
I don't think I have heard a single argument against everyone’s odds being the same IF the drawing was truly random. However, let’s look at it from a slightly different angle. The winning number was 47396. What are the odds that a PS2 moogle assigned number would have been this one?

Fair, unfair, right, wrong, bad programming, or by design, the formula for the RNG's should have been the same across all platforms. The fact that it was not, and blatantly so, casts doubt on the entire event.
#238 Jul 03 2008 at 11:44 AM Rating: Decent
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57 posts
It all comes down to this. This is just a game, I played and only got 2 exp scrolls, and was happy that I won something. Yes I was surprised when there where 5 sets of numbers drawn, an wished SE would have made that more clear. Human error is always going to come in play no matter how well thought out the process is.
#239 Jul 03 2008 at 11:50 AM Rating: Decent
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2,232 posts
Quote:
I don't think I have heard a single argument against everyone’s odds being the same IF the drawing was truly random. However, let’s look at it from a slightly different angle. The winning number was 47396. What are the odds that a PS2 moogle assigned number would have been this one?


You have a cart/horse problem there.


#240 Jul 03 2008 at 1:49 PM Rating: Good
JustTroItIn wrote:
I don't think I have heard a single argument against everyone’s odds being the same IF the drawing was truly random. However, let’s look at it from a slightly different angle. The winning number was 47396. What are the odds that a PS2 moogle assigned number would have been this one?

Fair, unfair, right, wrong, bad programming, or by design, the formula for the RNG's should have been the same across all platforms. The fact that it was not, and blatantly so, casts doubt on the entire event.

There have been plenty, including actuall tests you, just like many others, dont understand the basics of prob/stat.

if you roll a 99999 sided dice, ANY number has the same chance of being picked.
#241 Jul 03 2008 at 2:13 PM Rating: Decent
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101 posts
The problem is this:

The EOEOE and OEOEO numbers selected were probably picked a lot more often than numbers that didn't fit that pattern (because the system was set up to pick those numbers automatically if the user wanted the moogle to pick for them). So, if we assume that SE would pick numbers that would not crash the economy (too many winners of the big prizes), then their hands were tied -- they couldn't pick an EOEOE or OEOEO number or there would be too many people winning the big prizes.

SE screwed this up big time, IMO -- and I didn't even participate in it. No bias here.
#242 Jul 03 2008 at 2:16 PM Rating: Good
Edited by bsphil
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21,739 posts
Ahh, nobody cared until they lost. Smiley: lol
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#243 Jul 03 2008 at 2:24 PM Rating: Good
Concepcion wrote:
The problem is this:

The EOEOE and OEOEO numbers selected were probably picked a lot more often than numbers that didn't fit that pattern (because the system was set up to pick those numbers automatically if the user wanted the moogle to pick for them). So, if we assume that SE would pick numbers that would not crash the economy (too many winners of the big prizes), then their hands were tied -- they couldn't pick an EOEOE or OEOEO number or there would be too many people winning the big prizes.

SE screwed this up big time, IMO -- and I didn't even participate in it. No bias here.


it doesn't matter. every number had the same chance of being picked. yes SE fuxored up the PS2 numbers somehow but, if one of those numbers were picked as the winner instead this thread would not have existed at all. However, none of that changes how probability works, winning numbers all had the same chance at being picked.
#244 Jul 03 2008 at 6:08 PM Rating: Excellent
Quote:
It's more like the cards you're given always add up to 17. 17 can still win, but it's less likely. Yet at the same time, the guy next to you can get 17, but can also get 18, 19, 20 & 21. He's much more likely to win, but you still have a chance.


That's not really true either, because separate drawings were held, and each number had an equal chance of winning in each drawing.
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#245 Jul 03 2008 at 6:33 PM Rating: Default
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Ladies and Gentlemen! The winning numbers for the FINAL FANTASY XI 6th Anniversary Mog Bonanza event have now been randomly drawn under strict supervision.



My friend fynlar replied:

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Uhh, no. I know several people with Ebisu who play on PC only, and no, they don't cheat. It is harder, but not impossible. Stop sucking, perhaps?


Umm, yeah, I've got an ebisu......do you? Alrighty then you can take your seat.


Quote:
How do you figure that? I've seen my fair share of mobs who spawn with purple names. If you think this is a problem on PC that magically goes away on a PS2, you are sorely mistaken.


Because I run a ps2 AND a PC at camps and 100% of the time (not close to 100%.....100%) the mob spawns on PS2 first. Do you dual box on 2 platforms while camping? Alrighty then, you can take your seat.

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No, that just makes you a whiner.


Start a poll on who is the biggest whiner in this thread.......LOL.



I'm guessing your ps2 didn't come with a sarcasm detector if you really think people get upset because they can't see their amemet mantle. Bottom line: It was RANDOM and SUPERVISED, and 16000 post of complaining won't change the fact you lost fair and square (as did I).
#246 Jul 03 2008 at 6:49 PM Rating: Default
Jack of All Trades
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Umm, yeah, I've got an ebisu......do you? Alrighty then you can take your seat.


Yeah, I do, actually. Guess that backfired on you, huh? Did you try checking my profile lately?

By the way, your attitude is strangely familiar of those who think one knows nothing about a job unless one has it at level 75 himself. Which is a ridiculous way to think, if I do say so myself.

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Because I run a ps2 AND a PC at camps and 100% of the time (not close to 100%.....100%) the mob spawns on PS2 first. Do you dual box on 2 platforms while camping? Alrighty then, you can take your seat.


Ah, that would explain why all the PC players claim kings before I even see them appear on my PS2, right?

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Start a poll on who is the biggest whiner in this thread.......LOL.


At least my complaint is legitimate and on-topic, which is more than what can be said of you...

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Bottom line: It was RANDOM and SUPERVISED, and 16000 post of complaining won't change the fact you lost fair and square (as did I).


Duh. Congrats on being yet another person that totally missed the point of the thread.
#247 Jul 03 2008 at 6:58 PM Rating: Default
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Ah, that would explain why all the PC players claim kings before I even see them appear on my PS2, right?


I already said.......
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PS2 is the only possible way other than running a script you will ever ever claim anything against competition


A bot at kings?!?!?!? I never would have guessed!!!!

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Yeah, I do, actually. Guess that backfired on you, huh? Did you try checking my profile lately?


No.....I really don't spend my day checking random profiles. But I had the joy just now of looking at yours......The RDM with rajas ring.....and royal cloak.....and suppa while wearing a shield......and ogre ledelsens.......and a 3000 gil belt.....I'm just gonna leave you to posting and give you the win because if that is the gear you are featuring then this forum is about all you've got bub.


Quote:
Duh. Congrats on being yet another person that totally missed the point of the thread.



Sorry, reread your posts and I think I get the point now:


WWWWWWWWWWHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


#248 Jul 03 2008 at 7:22 PM Rating: Default
Jack of All Trades
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Quote:
A bot at kings?!?!?!? I never would have guessed!!!!


Doesn't even have to be a bot. Seen it happen even with people that definitely are not botting.

Quote:
No.....I really don't spend my day checking random profiles. But I had the joy just now of looking at yours......The RDM with rajas ring.....and royal cloak.....and suppa while wearing a shield......and ogre ledelsens.......and a 3000 gil belt.....I'm just gonna leave you to posting and give you the win because if that is the gear you are featuring then this forum is about all you've got bub.


That's obviously not a realistic gearset and it's just used to show off various things that I have or things that I'm wearing most of the time (which I never said had to be entirely uber/pimp things). How exactly am I going to wear a AF hat along with a Royal Cloak, or a Ebisu + Fortune Egg?

Still, you made the mistake of assuming I did not have Ebisu before you even asked me if I did have one, which says to me that you've either got way too much pride in your rod or you had a ***** of a time getting it. I'll just be the one to say right now, that rod isn't really rare anymore. I see it all over the place, so you're not exactly in high, exaulted status.
#249 Jul 03 2008 at 8:08 PM Rating: Default
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Quote:
That's obviously not a realistic gearset and it's just used to show off various things that I have or things that I'm wearing most of the time (which I never said had to be entirely uber/pimp things). How exactly am I going to wear a AF hat along with a Royal Cloak, or a Ebisu + Fortune Egg?


irrelevant. RDM main that even owns rajas ring doesn't get to have an opinion.


Quote:
Still, you made the mistake of assuming I did not have Ebisu before you even asked me if I did have one, which says to me that you've either got way too much pride in your rod or you had a ***** of a time getting it. I'll just be the one to say right now, that rod isn't really rare anymore. I see it all over the place, so you're not exactly in high, exaulted status.


1/108
1/202

About average. There are 3 on my server, which is way less than Aegis or Mandau. It's just another item to me. I wear it while choc digging since I don't even fish anymore. I seriously can't believe you are dissing the only good item in your profile though.....that seems a bit counter productive.


This is actually working out quite well for you though. All this talk about gear is actually diverting attention away from the fact you've posted 20+ times in a thread whining about not winning a random lottery.
#250 Jul 03 2008 at 8:38 PM Rating: Default
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Quote:
There are 3 on my server,


You know this how?

I've personally seen at least 10 or so, there's probably more, based on some of the long-term fishers I regularly see come up on the fish ranking lists.

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I seriously can't believe you are dissing the only good item in your profile though.....that seems a bit counter productive.


It's really not much different from a Lu once you already have the ability to fix a Lu, which is pretty much a given if you've gotten the Ebisu to begin with. Going from Lu->Ebisu made far less of a difference in my fishing ability than it did from (everything else)->Lu.

Long time/effort to obtain does not a good item make.

Quote:
This is actually working out quite well for you though. All this talk about gear is actually diverting attention away from the fact you've posted 20+ times in a thread whining about not winning a random lottery.


Only that isn't what the thread is about, and you still prove yourself unable to read or comprehend. Yay for you?
#251 Jul 03 2008 at 9:36 PM Rating: Default
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1,996 posts
Quote:
Quote:
Bottom line: It was RANDOM and SUPERVISED, and 16000 post of complaining won't change the fact you lost fair and square (as did I).


Duh. Congrats on being yet another person that totally missed the point of the thread.



Really? Really? I emphasize it was RANDOM and SUPERVISED as advertised on the POL site and I've somehow missed what the topic is about? Let's see if you yourself have anything to say about whether it was RANDOM and SUPERVISED........




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That's horse sh*t and you know it. If you really think this was just a mistake on SE's part and not intentionally designed to ***** people over... wow, just wow.



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Simple example. Imagine a regular 6 sided die. Person A can choose any number from #1 to #6. Person B can only choose #1 (due to "software limitations ;) ).
If you roll the die, both have 1/6th chance of winning. The choice Person A had is completely irrelevant for the chance to win.
Just because Mog Bonanza uses larger numbers, doesn't mean the odds become unfair to Person B compared to Person A.


If you are ever in the situation of Person B and you think that they aren't using a rigged die that either won't roll 1s or is significantly less likely to, we can also file you under the gullible/ignorant category.



Quote:

Again, if anyone really thinks that every number had the same 1/100000 chance to be picked now even after this information about the RNG not being really random came to light... I've got this bridge that I'd like to sell you...


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They just programmed it with a bunch of numbers, and made sure that the winning numbers were not among that list.



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Yeah, the problem with that (as I've indicated above) is that if you've got someone saying that you can only bet on 1, it's almost guaranteed that you're playing with a rigged die. (hint hint)



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There isn't any reason, other than wanting to make a RNG that appears random but really is not. Which you would do if you were trying to cheat people.



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Oh, give me a break. You act like it takes a @#%^in rocket scientist to see that there's obviously been foul play going on here.


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Yeah, it couldn't possibly be that they simply wanted to cheat us, and then have people like you try to defend them with lame excuses like "well, the moogle never actually SAID that his picks were truly random, blah blah blah!"

Couldn't be that, nuh-uh.



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I happen to think that they singled out the OEOEOs and EOEOEs as well as hand-picked the winning numbers.







Are you absolutely sure this thread isn't about this lotto being RANDOM and SUPERVISED???? Because it being "Rigged" is in nearly every one of your posts.....

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