1
Forum Settings
       
Reply To Thread

The unfairness of mog bonanza towards PS2 playersFollow

#27 Jul 01 2008 at 5:04 AM Rating: Decent
Living on a Prayer
******
30,114 posts
Smiley: lol
#28 Jul 01 2008 at 5:09 AM Rating: Decent
Fynlar wrote:
Quote:
And as I pointed out in the other thread that was already made about this, it was still completely random odds that your number would be chosen, no matter whether the numbers the moogles gave had a pattern or not.


That's horse sh*t and you know it. If you really think this was just a mistake on SE's part and not intentionally designed to ***** people over... wow, just wow.


Seriously? SE just wanted to ***** over PS2 players? Why?

A larger percentage of jp players play on PS2 than anywhere else. Did SE just want to ***** over jp players? Maybe they don't like Sony - another jp company and wanted to back Microsoft?

This is nothing but bad programming - which can warrent being upset over - but, I'm sorry, it is not a conspiracy.
#29 Jul 01 2008 at 5:12 AM Rating: Good
***
2,081 posts
Quote:
SE just wanted to ***** over PS2 players? Why?


Limitations....
____________________________
When I'm good they never remember,
When I'm bad they never forget
#30 Jul 01 2008 at 5:23 AM Rating: Good
*
154 posts
Against all my better judgment, I find myself pretty annoyed by this, as a PS2 player with 50 moogle-generated marbles and 4 exp scrolls to show for it.

I think those people who let moogles pick their numbers were doing so specifically because a random number generator should do a better job of creating a diverse portfolio of marbles to mitigate risk as much as possible.

This subtle, yet fatal flaw in the diversification is akin to, say, creating a stock portfolio of diverse companies that all happen to be located in South Florida. Sure, you're protected from business risk, but whoops, here comes a hurricane. And then you're screwed.

Not winning anything is something I can handle, but I have to admit this is something that gets under my skin a bit.


P.S. I don't know jack about programming or anything of the sort, so please forgive me if I've been whooshed in any way.
#31 Jul 01 2008 at 5:55 AM Rating: Decent
***
1,428 posts
The fact the pattern exists for ps2 and not pc dictates that the numbers were generated client side. I did have all numbers randomly generated and although I didn't pay attn, yes they all followed the even odd rules. I agree this would not made any difference in the winning number, but as stated I choose the random from moogle as I believed it to be as random as possible. At one point I had some numbers repeat, which as seemed odd as I had only done 60 marbles. But if we are following a pattern then this does limit the amount of actual numbers generated also.
#32 Jul 01 2008 at 6:04 AM Rating: Decent
***
1,996 posts
And if the random number that SE selected would have been a EOEOE thris thread would have been full of PC people whining that PS2 had an advantage.


Heck, even if ps2 could only generate the number '11111' randomly you still have the same chance so long as the winning number is randomly selected.
#33 Jul 01 2008 at 6:06 AM Rating: Good
**
368 posts
Do not think about it as picking 1 number from 100,000. Think of it as 2 people each picking a number from 1-100,000 and then seeing if they picked the same one. Except in this version one person is given only some of the numbers so if the other person chooses one of those there is no chance of winning. Odds don't matter when the die is loaded.
#34 Jul 01 2008 at 6:15 AM Rating: Default
**
303 posts
If you honestly think SE "randomly" chose the winning numbers, you should go lay down in the street. They never said once they were going to randomly pick the numbers. They also have to make sure the economy gets enough/doesn't lose too much money during this whole thing. The 5 numbers they picked were picked because it generated the return they were looking for.

*fixed grammar error*

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 10:16am by FetalDave
#35 Jul 01 2008 at 6:20 AM Rating: Good
FetalDave wrote:
If you honestly think SE "randomly" chose the winning numbers, you should go lay down in the street. They never said once they were going to randomly pick the numbers. They also have to make sure the economy gets enough/doesn't lose too much money during this whole thing. The 5 numbers they picked were picked because it generated the return they were looking for.

*fixed grammar error*

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 10:16am by FetalDave


Smiley: tinfoilhat
#36 Jul 01 2008 at 6:25 AM Rating: Default
**
303 posts
Did you really think they would let this be "random"? No conspiracy theories, it's just simply irresponsible to allow something that could potentially ***** up the economy be left up to a random number generator. Why do you think it took them so long to pick the numbers?
#37 Jul 01 2008 at 6:31 AM Rating: Decent
Scholar
***
1,098 posts
I play on the Ps2 and i wrote down every marble on paper {yes every marble}. I got lots of XP scrolls coming to me but i think the purpose of this event was to get clueless people like me to buy mules. I moved massive amounts of stuff at the AH and it was fun for a month. We all know SE have people in a room somewhere getting paid to just think up ways to get our real money now they want virtual money too...this sucks.
____________________________




[ffxivsig]459049[/ffxivsig]
#38 Jul 01 2008 at 6:38 AM Rating: Good
*
222 posts
Even if the random numbers generated by the moogles for ps2 users specifically are actually generated in a specific pattern, the option to manually choose your numbers was available to players on every platform. I don't see any unfairness here.

Besides, why would SE bother to specifically single out ps2 users? Are you basing your claim on random numbers that only ps2 users were given? Have you confirmed that PC/xbox360 players were given random numbers that don't follow the pattern you saw with ps2 characters? I play on PC; I don't remember what the random numbers I got were and I don't have time to look at them again right now, but even if other people in this thread post random numbers they got on the PC version that don't follow this pattern, did you know that before you posted this?

I didn't win anything above the rank 5 prize myself, and of course was a little disappointed that I didn't win any of the higher ranking prizes, but I knew going into it that the chances I had of winning something big were pretty slim. I was a little superstitious and chose some of my numbers according to my own system, and had the moogle pick the rest.. didn't win anything big, but I don't blame anyone for it. It's just how these sorts of things go.
#39 Jul 01 2008 at 6:40 AM Rating: Excellent
*
158 posts
If the winning numbers are chosen randomly, then the odds are exactly the same. PC or PS2.

Simple example. Imagine a regular 6 sided die. Person A can choose any number from #1 to #6. Person B can only choose #1 (due to "software limitations ;) ).
If you roll the die, both have 1/6th chance of winning. The choice Person A had is completely irrelevant for the chance to win.
Just because Mog Bonanza uses larger numbers, doesn't mean the odds become unfair to Person B compared to Person A.

However, I do like to add this: There has been roughly a month between the time you could purchase a marble and the announcement of the winning numbers. The general consensus is that SE took this time to make sure that the random numbers wouldn't result in messed up results (like 1 person with 10 characters for a total of 100 marbles winning one hundred times the jackpot, or 10 billion gil).

The pattern of EOEOE and OEOEO significantly reduces the available numbers, however. (I believe with a factor 16. 10x10x10x10x10 vs. 10x5x5x5x5, or 100,000 vs. 6250). So there are only 6250 available numbers which follow the PS2 pattern.
This would mean that these 6250 numbers would be chosen significantly more often than the non-pattern numbers. SE might have noticed this reviewing the numbers, and "fixed" the lottery by choosing numbers that didn't follow the pattern.

Conclusion: If the winning numbers were really chosen at random, then the lottery is fair. If SE reviewed everything and picked the winning numbers in such a way that not too many people would win 100mil, then the PS2 players were really %^$#ed over.

EDIT: :O lots of replies in the time I wrote this. I'd like to add that I am not saying at all that SE deliberately put PS2 players at a disadvantage. In fact, I am convinced SE never realized that the PS2 only came up with random EOEOE and OEOEO patterns.

Edit 2: I am on PC myself, I got 30 marbles. Half picked random, half chosen by me. I won 2 exp scrolls. 1 from my own numbers, 1 from the moogle's. So I guess in the end, it doesn't really matter what system you were on.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 4:46pm by Jamaraq
#40 Jul 01 2008 at 6:45 AM Rating: Default
**
368 posts
Looking back I think I expressed myself poorly. I think the real problem is although we were given a game it feels as though it was not the one we were shown. It is as if there were a line in the bonanza description saying: "SE reserves the right to choose a number inaccessible to players." The fact that the odds given remained correct gives little comfort.
#41 Jul 01 2008 at 6:48 AM Rating: Good
**
303 posts
Jamaraq wrote:
If the winning numbers are chosen randomly, then the odds are exactly the same. PC or PS2.

Simple example. Imagine a regular 6 sided die. Person A can choose any number from #1 to #6. Person B can only choose #1 (due to "software limitations ;) ).
If you roll the die, both have 1/6th chance of winning. The choice Person A had is completely irrelevant for the chance to win.
Just because Mog Bonanza uses larger numbers, doesn't mean the odds become unfair to Person B compared to Person A.

However, I do like to add this: There has been roughly a month between the time you could purchase a marble and the announcement of the winning numbers. The general consensus is that SE took this time to make sure that the random numbers wouldn't result in messed up results (like 1 person with 10 characters for a total of 100 marbles winning one hundred times the jackpot, or 10 billion gil).

The pattern of EOEOE and OEOEO significantly reduces the available numbers, however. (I believe with a factor 16. 10x10x10x10x10 vs. 10x5x5x5x5, or 100,000 vs. 6250). So there are only 6250 available numbers which follow the PS2 pattern.
This would mean that these 6250 numbers would be chosen significantly more often than the non-pattern numbers. SE might have noticed this reviewing the numbers, and "fixed" the lottery by choosing numbers that didn't follow the pattern.

Conclusion: If the winning numbers were really chosen at random, then the lottery is fair. If SE reviewed everything and picked the winning numbers in such a way that not too many people would win 100mil, then the PS2 players were really %^$#ed over.

EDIT: :O lots of replies in the time I wrote this. I'd like to add that I am not saying at all that SE deliberately put PS2 players at a disadvantage. In fact, I am convinced SE never realized that the PS2 only came up with random EOEOE and OEOEO patterns.

Edit 2: I am on PC myself, I got 30 marbles. Half picked random, half chosen by me. I won 2 exp scrolls. 1 from my own numbers, 1 from the moogle's. So I guess in the end, it doesn't really matter what system you were on.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 4:46pm by Jamaraq


This is the best post I've seen thus far. 100% agree.
#42 Jul 01 2008 at 6:51 AM Rating: Decent
Scholar
Avatar
*****
12,820 posts
Jamaraq wrote:
So I guess in the end, it doesn't really matter what system you were on.


Because there's only "one" server, but many client types. (PS2/PS3/360/PC)

Though I guess because someone went with all marbles generated by the moogle and are on the PS2 they seen a pattern in the way the moogles picked it..so it was automatically assumed it's a PS2 exclusive thing, guess we just have to wait for someone on the 360 and PS3 and PC to post that used the moogle to auto generate all of their marble numbers.



Edited, Jul 1st 2008 7:52am by Theonehio
____________________________

#43 Jul 01 2008 at 6:51 AM Rating: Default
**
561 posts
Quote:
SE reserves the right to choose a number inaccessible to players."


Technically those on the ps2 could still have chosen their own numbers, and has the winning numbers followed the pattern of even, odd, even, odd then those on ps2 who used the moogle to choose would have had a much BETTER chance of winning the number 1 prize, but that aside this is s-e's fault as usual for a messed up program design. That can't be held accountable to the players, it's just sloppy programming. This time it's REALLY sloppy is all.
#44 Jul 01 2008 at 6:52 AM Rating: Decent
*
222 posts
FetalDave wrote:
If you honestly think SE "randomly" chose the winning numbers, you should go lay down in the street. They never said once they were going to randomly pick the numbers. They also have to make sure the economy gets enough/doesn't lose too much money during this whole thing. The 5 numbers they picked were picked because it generated the return they were looking for.


I had serious doubts too that the winning numbers would be randomly generated when this event started. I may have missed it, but I never read anywhere anything about whether the winning numbers would be chosen randomly or not.

Then yesterday I saw this:

Quote:
FINAL FANTASY XI 6th Anniversary Mog Bonanza

Price: 1000 gil.
Mog Bonanza marbles available for purchase from May 16 till May 28.
The winning numbers will be announced on June 30.
Prizes available for collection from July 2 till July 31.

* The winning number will be randomly determined in a strictly supervised process.


On the main FFXI site. The wiki posted it yesterday (the 30th). The original announcement (posted on the wiki april 30th), said nothing about how the winning numbers would be determined.

Don't misunderstand - I'm not trying to defend SE here. I'm just posting what I've seen. In fact, I still wonder why nothing was said by SE about how the winning numbers would be chosen until they were actually announced - seems kind of weird.

I still only won the rank 5 prize (on my main and 2 mules) - 3 exp scrolls, max exp given per scroll is 1500 I believe? So I guess I paid 10k for 1500 exp three times - at least it made me laugh :P
#45 Jul 01 2008 at 6:54 AM Rating: Decent
***
1,015 posts
Figures, SE does something cool for the players and what's the first thing that happens? The crybabies who didn't win invent a conspiracy theory and whine that SE screwed them over.
#46 Jul 01 2008 at 7:04 AM Rating: Decent
***
1,755 posts
I couldnt actually buy any marbles cause I was busy over the purchase period and was too late to get em :p
#47 Jul 01 2008 at 7:16 AM Rating: Good
*
123 posts
Just looked over my wife's marbles at they ALL fit this pattern.

Insult to injury:

http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a380/methmonkey/Bonanza.jpg

This is a legitimate complaint... there's no way in hell to win anything but an exp scroll in this case. When having the moogle pick my wife assumed that it would be completely random and the the "drawing" would too. Well, they certainly didn't use the same "random" generator for the drawing did they? No EO/EO combinations in ANY of the winning numbers.

We weren't hanging our hopes on the bonanza, but GDI we expected it to be fair.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 11:19am by Aunan
#48 Jul 01 2008 at 7:20 AM Rating: Good
***
1,342 posts
Quote:
I'm sorry, it is not a conspiracy.


Not that I agree with either side...

In reality, it does not have to be a conspiracy to be true, just smart business.

If a company(SE) creates a game(Bonanza) where they fix the game to where a large group of people(PS2 players) pay to enter into a game where there is no chance of winning then SE just made out like Vegas.

Easiest way in the world to make money is a fix'd game where people in masses will never win, lol.

Edit:
Quote:
* The winning number will be randomly determined in a strictly supervised process.


I don't think the complaint is the winning numbers were selected in a bias way, but the way the random numbers were given to PS2 people.

The way PS2 people were "randomly" given numbers is to an E/O or O/E template. They way the winning numbers were picked wether fair or unfair made it impossible for a PS2 player to win anything but an exp scroll. Which is indeed a valid complaint.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 8:27am by spcwill
#49 Jul 01 2008 at 7:22 AM Rating: Decent
unfairness, I wonder how many of you are just pissed because you didn't win 100M.
#50 Jul 01 2008 at 7:24 AM Rating: Excellent
**
384 posts
hehe... Wait until Shantotto gets wind of this. I fear for the moogles.

Quote:

Wealth not obtained through one's own hard work is meaningless.
That is why your so-called Mog Bonanza fails to capture my interest.
But, if I were to play like those gil-starved adventurers.
I'd simply have you, the moogle, pick my ten numbers.
What's that, you ask?
What if the numbers should be off the mark?
I'd be full of pity for you.
Because it's me that you'll have to answer to!
Ohohohohoho!
#51 Jul 01 2008 at 7:29 AM Rating: Default
Posting in epic thread
Reply To Thread

Colors Smileys Quote OriginalQuote Checked Help

 

Recent Visitors: 97 All times are in CST
Anonymous Guests (97)