Jamaraq wrote:
If the winning numbers are chosen randomly, then the odds are exactly the same. PC or PS2.
Simple example. Imagine a regular 6 sided die. Person A can choose any number from #1 to #6. Person B can only choose #1 (due to "software limitations ;) ).
If you roll the die, both have 1/6th chance of winning. The choice Person A had is completely irrelevant for the chance to win.
Just because Mog Bonanza uses larger numbers, doesn't mean the odds become unfair to Person B compared to Person A.
However, I do like to add this: There has been roughly a month between the time you could purchase a marble and the announcement of the winning numbers. The general consensus is that SE took this time to make sure that the random numbers wouldn't result in messed up results (like 1 person with 10 characters for a total of 100 marbles winning one hundred times the jackpot, or 10 billion gil).
The pattern of EOEOE and OEOEO significantly reduces the available numbers, however. (I believe with a factor 16. 10x10x10x10x10 vs. 10x5x5x5x5, or 100,000 vs. 6250). So there are only 6250 available numbers which follow the PS2 pattern.
This would mean that these 6250 numbers would be chosen significantly more often than the non-pattern numbers. SE might have noticed this reviewing the numbers, and "fixed" the lottery by choosing numbers that didn't follow the pattern.
Conclusion: If the winning numbers were really chosen at random, then the lottery is fair. If SE reviewed everything and picked the winning numbers in such a way that not too many people would win 100mil, then the PS2 players were really %^$#ed over.
This was the best explanation so far on how it works... as long as the number was generated randomly any pattern didn't affect the outcome. (I can't guarantee it was random though...) In the above example where person A can choose any number (between 1-6, and they choose 4) and person B is given the number 1, and then the roll turns out to be 5. Neither person wins, but they really had the same chance of winning. Person B still feels slighted, because they had no chance to pick 5 so in their mind they "couldn't" win. Mathematically not the case... but they still feel that way.
SE, for the most part, didn't have to "fix" anything mathematical laws of probability would, for the most part, decide everything, depending of course on sample size, it's not like they didn't have the gil to hand out. As surprising as it is for most of us, there are already individual players with a billion gil, a few more wouldn't do much.
I'm on PS2 (and PC but with all the hackings I just don't play on it, it's a crappy PC anyway) and I had 110 marbles, 1 Main 10 mules.
As I'm sure some have learned through this process, computer random generators aren't really random. There are formulas and patterns to random generators on computers.
see here for details: http://www.random.org/
I covered all numbers 00-99 for the last 2 digits and then used the above website to generate the other 3 numbers.
For my Main I used 7 numbers of importance to me, and then let the moogle pick 3 cuz I was worried they'd use the same formula as the moogle to pick the number and I wanted to use the same system. I guaranteed myself the XP scrolls on everything but my Main and at least a Rank 4, but nothing else. I was worried my "system" wouldn't yield anything else and I'd miss some of the multiple possibilities but oh well.
And I got pretty much what was expected.
10 XP Scrolls on 10 mules that can't use them (Highest is 13 I might bother lol).
1 Rank 4
and pleasantly 3 XP scrolls on my main (3 numbers of significance ended in 1).
As you can see, I put a lot of thought in it (barely helped) but it was fun to dream of winning for a bit. The 3 numbers the moogle on PS2 generated were:
EEEOO
EEOOO
OEOEE
Just adding my experience and opinion to the group. The only question for me is whether or not the winning number was randomly generated, considering how many things we rely on SE for to generate (drop rates, NM spawn, Random, lotting....)
the Bonanza is the least of my concerns for fairness, SE really has no reason to ***** it's playerbase, as much as people think otherwise.