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The unfairness of mog bonanza towards PS2 playersFollow

#52 Jul 01 2008 at 7:31 AM Rating: Good
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unfairness, I wonder how many of you are just pissed because you didn't win 100M.


More pissed that there was no chance at winning at all if you had the moogle pick on a PS2.

0% chance. None. Nada. Threw your gil away when there was no chance. I didn't win and I play on PC. I had a chance. I am content. My wife plays on PS2. She had no chance once she had the moogle pick.

Why the hell shouldn't there be complaints about it?

#53 Jul 01 2008 at 7:31 AM Rating: Default
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spcwill wrote:

The way PS2 people were "randomly" given numbers is to an E/O or O/E template. They way the winning numbers were picked wether fair or unfair made it impossible for a PS2 player to win anything but an exp scroll. Which is indeed a valid complaint.


Now to see how many "PS2 players" file this complaint as well.
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#54 Jul 01 2008 at 7:38 AM Rating: Good
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It is BS that the "random" number generator did not work the same across all platforms.

Let SE know how you feel: https://secure.playonline.com/supportus/index.html
#55 Jul 01 2008 at 7:40 AM Rating: Decent
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Because there's only "one" server, but many client types. (PS2/PS3/360/PC)

Though I guess because someone went with all marbles generated by the moogle and are on the PS2 they seen a pattern in the way the moogles picked it..so it was automatically assumed it's a PS2 exclusive thing, guess we just have to wait for someone on the 360 and PS3 and PC to post that used the moogle to auto generate all of their marble numbers.


FYI there is no PS3 type in the way you speak. We needed to download a PS2 patch to our PS3's to play FFXI on our PS3, so PS2 and PS3 are the same in the terms that you are meaning.
#56 Jul 01 2008 at 7:47 AM Rating: Good
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Waitaminute,

Are we pissed off because our numbers all followed the EOEOE or the OEOEO (jungle love) format?

Or are we pissed off because the winning numbers were NOT EOEOE or OEOEO (jungle love) format?

Because, it seems to me that there was nothing stopping whatever that picked the winning numbers from picking numbers that were EOEOE or OEOEO (jungle love).

Unless there was a conspiracy...

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 11:48am by Acturus
#57 Jul 01 2008 at 7:52 AM Rating: Good
Smiley: tinfoilhatSmiley: umSmiley: tinfoilhat


JUST BECAUSE YOU'RE PARANOID DOESN'T MEAN WE'RE NOT OUT TO GET YOU
#58 Jul 01 2008 at 7:59 AM Rating: Decent
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It's bogus that because it took SE to long to get my character back, that they restored my charcter to the point of where i was, just before i went to buy my bonanza balls, so when i could actually log in, i had no balls/tickets, and the moogles were done selling them.


Then they went ahead and charged me for the world transfer that was done when i was hacked, and when i called they confirmed i was due a refund, and its been a month and next week master-card can get the money back from S-E.




P.S congrats people who won.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 11:00am by Navir
#59 Jul 01 2008 at 8:02 AM Rating: Excellent
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So, on its face I don't have a problem with this (disclaimer: I played on PS2 but hand-selected my numbers.) If you let the Moogle select your marbles, then there are two random processes involved in the lottery:

1. The Moogle's selection of which numbers to play.
2. SE's selection of which numbers will be winners.

It's been a few years since advanced probability, but I seem to recall that in a situation like this with two processes, as long as at least one of them is working properly (can select from all possible numbers with an equal probably of selecting each number), you end up with a fair lottery after all. If that's the case, I'm okay with it.

HOWEVER.

I'm skipping the paranoid conspiracy theories here because they really don't make sense. Hanlon's Razor - "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity" - is what has me worried. If the Moogle's selection was biased due to poor random number generator design (which seems likely to me at this point), it makes me wonder if there were flaws in SE's method for selecting the winners.

The PS2 random number generator screwup by itself isn't a concern, but it casts doubt on SE's ability to properly generate random numbers in other circumstances.
#60 Jul 01 2008 at 8:05 AM Rating: Decent
Master ketrel wrote:
unfairness, I wonder how many of you are just pissed because you didn't win 100M.


Do you think there's nothing wrong that they never had a chance? Call it a conspiracy or not but it doesn't take a whole month to randomly pick 5 numbers and if the people in charge of that knew PS2 moogles were only popping out EOEOE or OEOEO numbers then something foul has indeed taken place. Whether or not there's anything that should or could be done about it now that it's over I don't know, but if they intend to have this event again in future then it's definitely something Square-Enix should look into.
#61 Jul 01 2008 at 8:09 AM Rating: Excellent
As someone pointed out, the majority of players in Japan are still on PS2. I wonder if this "bug" affected them as well.

So are the Japanese people now complaining about the NA button?

#62 Jul 01 2008 at 8:20 AM Rating: Good
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catwho, pet mage of Jabober wrote:
As someone pointed out, the majority of players in Japan are still on PS2. I wonder if this "bug" affected them as well.

So are the Japanese people now complaining about the NA button?



I would assume it did have an impact on them, based on the OP's pictures all being from a JP client.

Quote:
The PS2 random number generator screwup by itself isn't a concern, but it casts doubt on SE's ability to properly generate random numbers in other circumstances.


That's the bigger issue. If we can't trust them to randomly generate numbers in that instance, how can we for another?

I too picked my numbers on my own. I screwed myself out of anything but a few xp scrolls, and that's ok with me. But even if the final numbers are truly picked randomly, thus making everyone's chances the same to win, if certain players were denied true random selection when they were told it was random, is still a flaw in the system. I don't care if the odds are still the same to win, a flaw is a flaw.

I'm not calling Smiley: tinfoilhat on SE, but I will say Smiley: disappointed

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 12:21pm by chluke
#63 Jul 01 2008 at 8:21 AM Rating: Excellent
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Reposting my thoughts on this from the original thread on the matter http://ffxi.allakhazam.com/forum.html?forum=10;mid=121488315073009448;num=24;page=1


As people have said, yes technically the winning random numbers could have randomly just happened to come out to the OEOEO or EOEOE pattern and no one here would be complaining. The problem isn't that it didn't come out to this but as I believe some people have mentioned it is statistically unlikely for this to happen, far more unlikely than being picked if your numbers did not follow the patterns.

The fact that the random combinations generated by ps2 systems follows the EOEOE and OEOEO patterns means that certain combinations like the rank 1 winning prize, which followed the EOOOE pattern, do not exist.

This means that if every single ps2 player in the world had a different randomly chosen number selected then there would be a zero percent chance for even one of those people to win the rank 1 prize.

On a larger scale this means that if we had an infinity-1 number of ps2 players who were able to buy marbles to cover every single possible OEOEO and EOEOE pattern then there would be a zero percent chance to win the rank1 prize.

Now if there was no pattern and the numbers were truely generated then everything would be fine. In the above infinite marble example the EOOOE pattern would be just as likely as the EOEOE and OEOEO patterns and everything would be fair... but it isn't
#64 Jul 01 2008 at 8:33 AM Rating: Decent
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Clearly this is part of SE's subtle way of phasing out PS2 players. Crashing in Sea and patterned randoms are just the start of SE's master plan to force people to convert to other platforms so the game can expand beyond 'PS2 limitations'.

All kidding aside, this situation does seem suspect, especially with how many have come forward with supporting evidence. The question then would be, why would SE make the PS2 random system different from that of PC and 360? Is it really that hard for the PS2 to generate a 5 digit number randomly? As others have said, it then calls into question SE's method for selecting the winning numbers.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 11:35am by Rockster
#65 Jul 01 2008 at 8:35 AM Rating: Decent
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Why let the moogle choose anyway? If you pick your own numbers you get a 100% chance of getting an exp scroll with your 10 marbles.


I picked 5 of my own numbers, and let the moogle pick 5. I'm on PS2. I didn't win anything.
#66 Jul 01 2008 at 8:41 AM Rating: Default
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Hey! maybe the numbers are drawn on a PS2, giving you better odds! PC players were screwed over!

Seriously, your PS2 did not decide your numbers 4 screenshots did not provide your evidence.
#67 Jul 01 2008 at 8:44 AM Rating: Default
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Quote:

* The winning number will be randomly determined in a strictly supervised process.


So, SE could be lying. If that's the topic of discussion then I'll quietly leave because it is a silly discussion.

If there are people who still don't understand that even if the numbers aren't generated randomly you have an equal chance to win provided the winning number is chosen at random then we have more to discuss until this is understood.
#68 Jul 01 2008 at 8:51 AM Rating: Decent
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Why let the moogle choose anyway? If you pick your own numbers you get a 100% chance of getting an exp scroll with your 10 marbles.


You can still have the moogles choose randomly and have a 100% chance at a scroll, it just takes a really long time to cycle through all the random numbers until you get one with a certain number at the end.

I personally decided to go with having almost all of my 40 marbles randomly because I figured that if i chose the numbers myself there would be a bias, like using numbers in the middle range more often than numbers at the extremities, or avoiding picking 0, or avoiding duplicating numbers, or following/avoiding certain patterns.

I figured "Hey, they're going to randomly pick the winner why not have my numbers randomly picked?"

Quote:

So, SE could be lying. If that's the topic of discussion then I'll quietly leave because it is a silly discussion.

If there are people who still don't understand that even if the numbers aren't generated randomly you have an equal chance to win provided the winning number is chosen at random then we have more to discuss until this is understood.


You should probably try reading the thread before you post.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 4:52pm by PlanckZero
#69 Jul 01 2008 at 8:55 AM Rating: Decent
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Asshandler wrote:
Quote:
Why let the moogle choose anyway? If you pick your own numbers you get a 100% chance of getting an exp scroll with your 10 marbles.


I picked 5 of my own numbers, and let the moogle pick 5. I'm on PS2. I didn't win anything.


Well that's all the evidence I need. Time to start the online petition.
#70 Jul 01 2008 at 8:56 AM Rating: Good
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If there are people who still don't understand that even if the numbers aren't generated randomly you have an equal chance to win provided the winning number is chosen at random then we have more to discuss until this is understood.


While this may be true if there was only one number drawn, there were 5 completely different numbers chosen for each category. What are the odds that all 5 numbers will follow an EOEOE or visa versa pattern. If a ps2 user had all of their numbers randomly generated, their odds were worse.
#71REDACTED, Posted: Jul 01 2008 at 9:00 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) +1
#72 Jul 01 2008 at 9:01 AM Rating: Excellent
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Jamaraq wrote:
If the winning numbers are chosen randomly, then the odds are exactly the same. PC or PS2.

Simple example. Imagine a regular 6 sided die. Person A can choose any number from #1 to #6. Person B can only choose #1 (due to "software limitations ;) ).
If you roll the die, both have 1/6th chance of winning. The choice Person A had is completely irrelevant for the chance to win.
Just because Mog Bonanza uses larger numbers, doesn't mean the odds become unfair to Person B compared to Person A.

However, I do like to add this: There has been roughly a month between the time you could purchase a marble and the announcement of the winning numbers. The general consensus is that SE took this time to make sure that the random numbers wouldn't result in messed up results (like 1 person with 10 characters for a total of 100 marbles winning one hundred times the jackpot, or 10 billion gil).

The pattern of EOEOE and OEOEO significantly reduces the available numbers, however. (I believe with a factor 16. 10x10x10x10x10 vs. 10x5x5x5x5, or 100,000 vs. 6250). So there are only 6250 available numbers which follow the PS2 pattern.
This would mean that these 6250 numbers would be chosen significantly more often than the non-pattern numbers. SE might have noticed this reviewing the numbers, and "fixed" the lottery by choosing numbers that didn't follow the pattern.

Conclusion: If the winning numbers were really chosen at random, then the lottery is fair. If SE reviewed everything and picked the winning numbers in such a way that not too many people would win 100mil, then the PS2 players were really %^$#ed over.



This was the best explanation so far on how it works... as long as the number was generated randomly any pattern didn't affect the outcome. (I can't guarantee it was random though...) In the above example where person A can choose any number (between 1-6, and they choose 4) and person B is given the number 1, and then the roll turns out to be 5. Neither person wins, but they really had the same chance of winning. Person B still feels slighted, because they had no chance to pick 5 so in their mind they "couldn't" win. Mathematically not the case... but they still feel that way.

SE, for the most part, didn't have to "fix" anything mathematical laws of probability would, for the most part, decide everything, depending of course on sample size, it's not like they didn't have the gil to hand out. As surprising as it is for most of us, there are already individual players with a billion gil, a few more wouldn't do much.

I'm on PS2 (and PC but with all the hackings I just don't play on it, it's a crappy PC anyway) and I had 110 marbles, 1 Main 10 mules.

As I'm sure some have learned through this process, computer random generators aren't really random. There are formulas and patterns to random generators on computers.

see here for details: http://www.random.org/

I covered all numbers 00-99 for the last 2 digits and then used the above website to generate the other 3 numbers.

For my Main I used 7 numbers of importance to me, and then let the moogle pick 3 cuz I was worried they'd use the same formula as the moogle to pick the number and I wanted to use the same system. I guaranteed myself the XP scrolls on everything but my Main and at least a Rank 4, but nothing else. I was worried my "system" wouldn't yield anything else and I'd miss some of the multiple possibilities but oh well.

And I got pretty much what was expected.

10 XP Scrolls on 10 mules that can't use them (Highest is 13 I might bother lol).
1 Rank 4

and pleasantly 3 XP scrolls on my main (3 numbers of significance ended in 1).

As you can see, I put a lot of thought in it (barely helped) but it was fun to dream of winning for a bit. The 3 numbers the moogle on PS2 generated were:

EEEOO
EEOOO
OEOEE

Just adding my experience and opinion to the group. The only question for me is whether or not the winning number was randomly generated, considering how many things we rely on SE for to generate (drop rates, NM spawn, Random, lotting....)
the Bonanza is the least of my concerns for fairness, SE really has no reason to ***** it's playerbase, as much as people think otherwise.





#73 Jul 01 2008 at 9:08 AM Rating: Default
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Simple example. Imagine a regular 6 sided die. Person A can choose any number from #1 to #6. Person B can only choose #1 (due to "software limitations ;) ).
If you roll the die, both have 1/6th chance of winning. The choice Person A had is completely irrelevant for the chance to win.
Just because Mog Bonanza uses larger numbers, doesn't mean the odds become unfair to Person B compared to Person A.


Just thought f something about this example. For one chosen number each yes this situation works. But with the bonanza we weren't limited to picking one number each.

If we looked at a different situation where Person A and Person B can pick up to 3 numbers under the same limitations then we have Person A having a 50% chance of winning and Person B still stuck with their 1/6 chance of winning.

This is more or less the situation we have here with the ps2's "random" patterns
#74 Jul 01 2008 at 9:19 AM Rating: Decent
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I cant believe people are posting stuff saying it was actully fair. I play on xbox but i will tell you its complete *********

Yes, you could pick all numbers yourself. Did everyone do this, no. I'm willing to bet people actually let the moogles pick the majority of the numbers, especially those with multiple mules.

Because the random number generator would only use ~6k numbers instead of 10k there would be much more overlap with numbers between players.

Imagine if the situation were reversed for a second now and the winning numbers on each rank all followed the pattern. There would be like 300+ rank1 winners 75% of which played on ps2, 75% of winners for rank2 on ps2, etc.

Would you think it was fair then? I mean, you did have the same chance to win with the numbers YOU picked, right?
#75REDACTED, Posted: Jul 01 2008 at 9:25 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) The man does know everything...
#76 Jul 01 2008 at 9:28 AM Rating: Decent
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lol @ all the people calling it a programming "mistake". You don't design what's supposed to be a RNG and then intentionally make it so that it will never pick certain numbers (and had we known this beforehand, it's really no shock that all the winning numbers fell under that category). Unless there's a new definition of random that I'm not aware of...


Quote:
Simple example. Imagine a regular 6 sided die. Person A can choose any number from #1 to #6. Person B can only choose #1 (due to "software limitations ;) ).
If you roll the die, both have 1/6th chance of winning. The choice Person A had is completely irrelevant for the chance to win.
Just because Mog Bonanza uses larger numbers, doesn't mean the odds become unfair to Person B compared to Person A.


If you are ever in the situation of Person B and you think that they aren't using a rigged die that either won't roll 1s or is significantly less likely to, we can also file you under the gullible/ignorant category.
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