The unfairness of mog bonanza towards PS2 playersFollow

I fail to see how anyone was wronged here.

Even if this was true, the randomly chosen numbers very easily could have alternated between even and odd.

Plus, you chose to let the moogle pick numbers for you.

And, once you saw those numbers, you decided to keep your marbles instead of dropping them to take new ones.

But, this is a fun read, so carry on.

Thayos if I could rate you down I would. I and others were wronged as the "random" number was not random. The moogle lied to me. However as stated it does not make a difference as long as the winning number was in fact random, and that we will never know.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 1:49pm by shibaaa

I don't put faith in "fortune tellers" and not even sure where that came from. I put faith in the "quick pick" being a truly random selection of numbers.

This is probably what it will come down to in the end.

I did--and I saw a bunch of people who are struggling to understand probability and statistics but have a lot of very strong opinions on the subject.

All my numbers were picked on PS2 by the moogle but unless the random number was flawed but flawed in a different way than the PS2 number generator (obviously if they are flawed in the same way this favors our PS2 generation), I didn't have any less of a chance of winning than anyone else.

HOWEVER! We do have a legitimate gripe--if our numbers HAD been chosen we'd have won less than the players who did win given that there would likely be more people who won which would devalue gil just a bit more and thus not go as far. That's a legitimate flaw in the system.

Of course I don't see people complaining about this in this topic. I see them complaining about conspiracies and displaying a profound lack of understanding of the basics of probability and statistics.

The "problem" here is that if the number rolled is:
1: Person A has 1/6 chance of winning, Person B has 100% chance of winning
2: Person A has 1/6 chance of winning, Person B has 0% chance of winning
3: Person A has 1/6 chance of winning, Person B has 0% chance of winning
4: Person A has 1/6 chance of winning, Person B has 0% chance of winning
5: Person A has 1/6 chance of winning, Person B has 0% chance of winning
6: Person A has 1/6 chance of winning, Person B has 0% chance of winning
Add them all up and you get 6/6 and 100% which are the same.. overall.

But I don't think most people playing on PS2 really wanted all of these "zeros" or were aware that this would be how the bonanza truly played out, even at the "bonus" of having greatly increased odds if the number happened to be in your limited "random" random.

If there are 32 alternating Even/Odd combinations for a 5-digit number and only 2 patterns that the PS2 could generate, then the similar situation would be:
EOEOE: PC randoming player has 1/32 chance of matching this pattern, PS2 randoming player has 1/2 chance
OEOEO: PC randoming player has 1/32 chance of matching this pattern, PS2 randoming player has 1/2 chance
All 30 other patterns: PC randoming player has 1/32 chance of matching each one, PS2 randoming player has 0 chance.
Again, overall .. 32/32 vs 2/2, the odds are the same.
But that is a lot of "zeros" and with only 1 number being picked for rank 1, that's basically a hidden 2/32 odds lottery that the PS2 player must first win, to then end up with the "bonus" of having 16 times the odds of winning that a randoming PC user would have.

Yes, the moogle didn't force anyone to random their numbers, and everyone accepted the marbles they ended up with. But if I were aware that not every marble had an equal chance of winning something, then yes, I would've selected my numbers myself. I'd guess most people believed that these were randomly chosen.

Yeah, the problem with that (as I've indicated above) is that if you've got someone saying that you can only bet on 1, it's almost guaranteed that you're playing with a rigged die. (hint hint)

I'm sorry, I still don't see the huge foul here.

The moogles did their jobs. They gave you marbles with numbers on them. Because separate drawings were held for each category, your EOEOE number had the exact same chance to be picked as my OEOEE number.

The only way anyone could have possibly been "wronged" by this is if the moogle gave you DUPLICATE marbles.

Also, lets not forget... these were not secret numbers! Everyone had equal opportunity to look at their numbers, and decide whether to keep them.

Anyone who didn't like their EOEOE marbles could have dropped them to choose new marbles.


EDIT: If the winning numbers were not randomly generated, then yeah, that would be unfair, if some numbers never had a chance of winning to begin with. But, that's a separate issue.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 11:54am by Thayos

I'm a PS2 player, and I must ask...

Ever notice how the winning number..47396.. I think? Had a lot of people usually 1 number off or a few numbers off? How did people come about getting even close to that number to begin with?

I'm just asking, because that number is deliciously random - but a lot of people seem to have gotten close to that number. Was it a moogle number? Or a number people thought of themselves?

I'm asking that second question, because it could determine if this is indeed a PS2 glitch or very bad luck for us.

Probably next to none, but let's see nonetheless.

Except that it costs SE nothing to pay out to the winners. It's hard to "make out like Vegas" when the money you "save" is cash that you can create out of thin air any time you like.

And, beyond that, a quick look at the odds -- which are significantly in the player's favour -- makes it fairly obvious that SE wants to add gil to the game with this event. Not only is there no profit in holding on to an item that you can create as you please, but there is also no advantage in holding on to cash when your goal was to distribute it.

This is on POL's Web site: "The winning number will be randomly determined in a strictly supervised process."

Also, I've looked at the winning numbers, and see no signs of any kind of pattern. They just look like random numbers.

Until we have access to SE's number generation system -- and can run hundreds of tests on our own using it -- then any assertion that the winning number was rigged is just grasping at far, distant straws.