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The unfairness of mog bonanza towards PS2 playersFollow

#127 Jul 01 2008 at 12:48 PM Rating: Good
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To bring a bit of the lulz in here...this is how I 1st read the statement.

Fynlar wrote:
There isn't anything "clever" about a RNG. At least not anymore. At least there isn't supposed to be.


My Sig wrote:
75 Rng


:( /cry

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 1:50pm by spcwill
#128 Jul 01 2008 at 12:53 PM Rating: Good
spcwill wrote:
Lienna wrote:
Executives and programmers get paid whether they are in meetings or not.


Note to self, never ask Lienna to be the CFO of any future company you may create.


hopefuly you were being sracastic lol

Hell executives get paid when they are taking a nap. It's called salary, an executive who gets paid by the hour is called a consultant Smiley: wink

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 2:53pm by Lienna
#129 Jul 01 2008 at 1:14 PM Rating: Default
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An executive at my current company and/or a company I may run in the future who sleeps at work is called unemployed. Likewise, I would in no way hire someone as an executive that had a "Hey, I get paid either way" mentality.

Just because you hold a position of higher importance then others doesn't mean you work any less hard then other do.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 2:25pm by spcwill
#130 Jul 01 2008 at 1:16 PM Rating: Default
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This is what I cant figure out...they are all on the same servers as the rest of us. Perhaps it has to do with the PS2 itself? something somehwat common in creating a program that will generate a random number is using the CPU clock cycles, could there be something with how the PS2 works that is messing up the numbers? Too bad someone can't test that with a modded Ps2 or something heh that would certainly make for a good answer.


Yeah, it couldn't possibly be that they simply wanted to cheat us, and then have people like you try to defend them with lame excuses like "well, the moogle never actually SAID that his picks were truly random, blah blah blah!"

Couldn't be that, nuh-uh.


Quote:
If only it really was.


I supposedly don't know what SE's intent was, but you do, then? You must, if you even know that I'm "wrong" to begin with. So enlighten us, oh wise one. Try not to sound as lame as Lienna does in the process.


Quote:
Do you really think they specifically targeted the PS2 players to keep them from winning the lottery? Really?


Why not? It's their largest playerbase, is it not? Thus it stands within reason to say that singling them out would produce the greatest possible results without having to do the same thing for ALL of their players, which would have made it a lot easier for people to cry foul if they had.


Quote:
1) SE has nothing to gain from rigging this contest. There's no question they screwed up; I just don't see what they have to gain from doing it deliberately. What possible reason would SE have to rig this contest? From their (real world) business model, the amount of gil injected/removed from the FFXI economy has little direct impact. In fact, if they were going to rig the contest, it would make more sense to me if they maximized the number of winners, so as to make that many more players happy they won something, thereby prolonging their FFXI subscriptions.


News flash:

The longer it takes for players to get things accomplished in this game (whether it's racking up gil, or scoring some uber equipment, or whatever), the more money SE makes in subscription fees.

What do they have to gain by charging us craploads of gil for nearly every event they do anyway, even when there's no chance of winning anything particularly useful? Hell, for that matter, why do they care about our economy at all? It's simple: they want to keep you farming, and therefore playing their game, longer.

Therefore, your logic is somewhat backwards. Give everyone 100m gil and uber gear, and if anything it will make players quit the game sooner overall, because it only means they will have accomplished their in-game goals that much sooner.


Quote:
2) There are enough people posting shots of losing marbles, and enough people who play this game with entirely too much time on their hands, that they had to know that something as simple as this EOEOE/OEOEO would be discovered.


You know, this wouldn't really be the first time that SE has underestimated the creativity/knowledge of their playerbase.


Quote:
3) If they were going to rig the game by reviewing the numbers later and picking a number with a very low frequency, they wouldn't have bothered mucking up the RNG in the first place.


Less work to just take a bunch of numbers and rule them out from ever possibly winning, entirely.


Quote:
You really need to loosen the screws on your tinfoil hat.


Nah. I enjoy myself more when I don't really care about having the popular opinion solely because it's popular. Likewise, I enjoy this site more when I don't really care about karma.
#131 Jul 01 2008 at 1:17 PM Rating: Decent
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Just one more reason for the "PS2 users" to ***** about anything and everything that they can.

...I know for a fact; I play on the PS2, and I'm tired of everyone ******** about it! If you think that you're REALLY getting ****** out of everything, then SPEND SOME MONEY AND BUY A COMPUTER OR XBOX360!

****...;; Whiney bastards.;;
#132 Jul 01 2008 at 1:19 PM Rating: Decent
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Some of those execs (used to be one myself) get a salary and "Special Project" income, thats tied directly to finishing projects/goals. Often times the bonus would include a bonus itself for meeting or beating timelines.

There is also the matter of things that are "expensed" such as taxis, dinner, hotels that are paid for during the project depending on weather or not you will have to travel. If you have to travel the travel is paid for as well.

This also trickles down to lower level employess who have to work overtime to facilitate the execs, especially when the exec is traveling to a different time zone and needs staff available later in the day.

It always costs ...
#133 Jul 01 2008 at 1:23 PM Rating: Decent
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LOL @ the discussion about how much "extra" it cost the company to run the Mog Bonanza. Are you serious?
#134 Jul 01 2008 at 1:23 PM Rating: Default
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spcwill wrote:
To bring a bit of the lulz in here...this is how I 1st read the statement.

Fynlar wrote:
There isn't anything "clever" about a RNG. At least not anymore. At least there isn't supposed to be.


My Sig wrote:
75 Rng


:( /cry

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 1:50pm by spcwill


In game, I've actually had to spell out "ranger" or "random number generator" on a few occasions, simply to prevent people from asking "RNG?" later on, due to not knowing what one I was talking about >_>

I'll never sing "War~ What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!" in my LS again, either. I nearly got the boot.
#135 Jul 01 2008 at 1:23 PM Rating: Decent
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the real unfairness of mog bonanza was announcing 5 seperate numbers for each category. You know, only the number 12345 for all 5 categories. Match the last digit of 5 for an exp scroll, match all 5 for the grand prize.

At least, for next year, we know.
#136 Jul 01 2008 at 1:26 PM Rating: Decent
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novachrombot wrote:
the real unfairness of mog bonanza was announcing 5 seperate numbers for each category. You know, only the number 12345 for all 5 categories. Match the last digit of 5 for an exp scroll, match all 5 for the grand prize.

At least, for next year, we know.
How is that unfair? Just because you had the last three digits of the Rank 1 number on one of your marbles? What's the difference?
#137 Jul 01 2008 at 1:30 PM Rating: Good
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Anyone else who has programmed before and have an ounce of common sense think that if SE was going to do this that they would simply re-random all PS2 numbers so it wouldn't look as fishy?

...or does the theory go that SE WANTED to say "PS2 GTFO."

Everyone is entitled to an opinion. Luckily the rest of us are entitled to common sense.
#138 Jul 01 2008 at 1:30 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
the real unfairness of mog bonanza was announcing 5 seperate numbers for each category. You know, only the number 12345 for all 5 categories. Match the last digit of 5 for an exp scroll, match all 5 for the grand prize.

At least, for next year, we know.


I expceted this really.

If there was 1 winning number i.e. 12345

Then the person who picked 12345 would win a prize from all 5 rank groups.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 2:31pm by spcwill
#139 Jul 01 2008 at 1:30 PM Rating: Default
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Just one more reason for the "PS2 users" to ***** about anything and everything that they can.

...I know for a fact; I play on the PS2, and I'm tired of everyone ******** about it! If you think that you're REALLY getting @#%^ed out of everything, then SPEND SOME MONEY AND BUY A COMPUTER OR XBOX360!

sh*t...;; Whiney bastards.;;


Maybe if they started actually being fair toward the PS2 players, we wouldn't have this problem, now would we? (Speaking of which, I'm still waiting for my ability to disable weather effects, SE. There is really no excuse why we do not have it, considering we're probably the console that needs such a feature the most...)

This may come as a shock to you, but this game was originally designed for PS2, and I paid a good chunk of money on all the miscellaneous crap you need just to get the game running on said PS2 in an actual playable format, because there was no chance in hell that it would run on my ****-tacular computer. This was the logical decision for me because there are actually other games I wanted a PS2 for, which I could not say for the PC at the time (and now, I definitely could not say for the 360).

Unless you plan to either buy my new gaming rig, or at least refund all the money I spent getting this to play on a PS2, just quit talking.
#140 Jul 01 2008 at 1:32 PM Rating: Decent
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Harri wrote:
novachrombot wrote:
the real unfairness of mog bonanza was announcing 5 seperate numbers for each category. You know, only the number 12345 for all 5 categories. Match the last digit of 5 for an exp scroll, match all 5 for the grand prize.

At least, for next year, we know.
How is that unfair? Just because you had the last three digits of the Rank 1 number on one of your marbles? What's the difference?


It's about how I bought the marbels, nothing to do with the actual numbers.
I bought them anticipating 1 number being called. so I had identical marbles, except the first digit. If I knew a single number was being called for rank 5, I'd have gotten 0-9 in the last digit. Thus increasing my odds for getting rank 4.
I basically played for rank 1 only, cause I thought 1 number would be called and all prizes would be based off that number.

It's like buying a lotto ticket in real life, you don't buy different numbers every week, you stick with the same ones.

Again, I'll know for next year
#141 Jul 01 2008 at 1:32 PM Rating: Default
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...or does the theory go that SE WANTED to say "PS2 GTFO."


They've been indirectly saying this for a while now, where've you been?
#142 Jul 01 2008 at 1:33 PM Rating: Decent
novachrombot wrote:
the real unfairness of mog bonanza was announcing 5 seperate numbers for each category. You know, only the number 12345 for all 5 categories. Match the last digit of 5 for an exp scroll, match all 5 for the grand prize.

At least, for next year, we know.


uhh no it really didnt because if you had all 5 numbers you couldnt get a rank 1,2,3,4,5 prize you only got the max and someone who got 4 numbers only got a rank 2 and so on. It actually allowed for more prizes this way I think (might be 1=1 though I will have to think a bit more) because this way there are no 'wasted' numbers, since each one is unique which makes it seem less random but doesnt change the odds any.

Lets say for simplicity reasons the winning number was 12345.

Now to get rank two you would nee #2345, rank 3 would be ##345 and so on.
It doesnt matter what the other numbers are because if you won a rank 3 prize then you didn't get the right ones (remember you can only get the highest rank prize you win and the rest are not counted).

Ok so now lets say the rank 1 number is 12345 and the rank 3 number is X0987

It wouldnt matter if you got X6829 or X2345 you still didnt win, it is the same range of numbers(4 digits). and the same chance at getting all of them (barring the issue with PS2 RNG at this point) it is still a string of 4 numbers generated at random.

The people that are saying otherwise are just QQing because they were 1 gigit off winning or something like that. which honesly I have a marble like that and it means nothing. As someone mentioned in one of the se threads, there are 45 possible numbers that would be '1 digit' off the winning number, and with a ratio of 45:1 you are far more likely to be 1digit off than to have the winning number so the statement is completely false.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 3:36pm by Lienna
#143 Jul 01 2008 at 1:37 PM Rating: Decent
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novachrombot wrote:
Harri wrote:
novachrombot wrote:
the real unfairness of mog bonanza was announcing 5 seperate numbers for each category. You know, only the number 12345 for all 5 categories. Match the last digit of 5 for an exp scroll, match all 5 for the grand prize.

At least, for next year, we know.
How is that unfair? Just because you had the last three digits of the Rank 1 number on one of your marbles? What's the difference?


It's about how I bought the marbels, nothing to do with the actual numbers.
I bought them anticipating 1 number being called. so I had identical marbles, except the first digit. If I knew a single number was being called for rank 5, I'd have gotten 0-9 in the last digit. Thus increasing my odds for getting rank 4.
I basically played for rank 1 only, cause I thought 1 number would be called and all prizes would be based off that number.

It's like buying a lotto ticket in real life, you don't buy different numbers every week, you stick with the same ones.

Again, I'll know for next year
So just because YOU made incorrect assumptions about the drawing, it's unfair?
#144 Jul 01 2008 at 1:45 PM Rating: Good
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Now now kiddies, let's all play nice, shall we?

First of all, let me introduce you to the wonderful world of Java~
In the following method you will find a simple algorithm that makes a ##### random number without following any pattern. You are free to test it if you want.

AmrikValefor wrote:
public static int generateRandomNumber(){
int random = 0;
for(int i = 0; i < 5; i++){
random = (int)((Math.random()*9)*Math.pow(10, i)) + random;
}
return random;
}


This method does the following:
RN1 x 1 + RN2 x 10 + RN3 x 100 + RN4 x 1000 + RN5 x 10000
This, in turn, generates all the possible numbers between 0 & 99999.

Nevertheless, while some may say that the EOEOE & the OEOEO pattern can be present in such a random number algorithm, it is still possible to attain different patterns.
Personally, I am surprised that the DEVs screwed up with something this simple.

I mean, it only takes a fraction of a second to calculate 1 random number between 0 and 9 and save it up to make up a 5-digit number.

I believe that there was a mistake. For those of you that refuse to think that the PS2 random numbers weren't totally random and, forgive me for the heresy, that SE's DEVs had made an error, I pity you. Logic dictates that, in order to see this amount of numbers following the EOEOE & OEOEO pattern without seeing any other possible outcome, the algorithm was written to generate only those two patterns. Is that clear?

Was it fair for those who decided to use the random numbers in a PS2/PS3? Not really, for as they did not have an equal chance with those numbers like the other players who decided to pick random numbers with a different console. Even more importantly, while some of you may say that all the calculations were server side, that idea is based of the answer of an interview about a different matter. Is it so hard to imagine that they used another process to calculate the random numbers rather than to force an adaptation of an existing one?

Also, while the news archive did prove that the moogles never mentioned "random" in their text, the Bonanza moogles (ingame) did use said word, if I recall correctly. Even if it wasn't the case though, it is common sense to suppose so. Furthermore, this argument is based on the translated news archive rather than the original text in Japanese. Why is this important? Well, there have been mistranslations in the past. You can figure out the rest.

EDIT

I fixed up some grammar mistakes.


Edited, Jul 1st 2008 5:53pm by AmrikValefor
#145 Jul 01 2008 at 1:51 PM Rating: Decent
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I'm baffled that people trusted moogles to pick their numbers for them.

Quote:
What's this fuss about true randomness?

Perhaps you have wondered how predictable machines like computers can generate randomness. In reality, most random numbers used in computer programs are pseudo-random, which means they are a generated in a predictable fashion using a mathematical formula. This is fine for many purposes, but it may not be random in the way you expect if you're used to dice rolls and lottery draws.

RANDOM.ORG offers true random numbers to anyone on the Internet. The randomness comes from atmospheric noise, which for many purposes is better than the pseudo-random number algorithms typically used in computer programs. People use RANDOM.ORG for holding draws, lotteries and sweepstakes, to drive games and gambling sites, for scientific applications and for art and music. The service has been operating since 1998 and was built and is being maintained by Mads Haahr who is a Lecturer in the School of Computer Science and Statistics at Trinity College, Dublin in Ireland.
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#146 Jul 01 2008 at 1:58 PM Rating: Default
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Personally, I am surprised that the DEVs screwed up with something this simple.


Precisely; it wasn't a ***** up. They knew what they doing. (Take off every 'zig', etc etc)


Quote:
Also, while the news archive did prove that the moogles never mentioned "random" in their text, the Bonanza moogles (ingame) did use said word, if I recall correctly. Even if it wasn't the case though, it is common sense to suppose so. Furthermore, that retarded argument is based on the translated news archive rather than the original in japanese. Why is this important? Well, there have been mistranslations in the past. You can figure out the rest.


Seriously, all the arguments saying "the moogles never said they would pick truly random numbers" are full of crap and are just digging for excuses for SE. It was obviously intended (or at least, we were supposed to interpret it as such) as a way to get randomly picked numbers. As I've said, various real life lotteries have a similar feature, most likely as a means for the indecisive ones among us to go ahead and buy a ticket anyway without having to take time to choose our numbers.


Quote:
I'm baffled that people trusted moogles to pick their numbers for them.


Like I said, I didn't do this, but I still think it was still a dirtyhanded trick for SE to pull, regardless.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 6:02pm by Fynlar
#147 Jul 01 2008 at 2:55 PM Rating: Excellent
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Usually when sections of code need to be written for different systems, they have teams that do the job. I bet SE follows the same format - ps2 people, pc people, 360 people. Each team would program the code for that system's mogbonanza number generator. This is why I think it was a mistake rather than done on purpose.

I have 13 mules. For 10 of them I followed the recommendation that Cid made in the lead up to the drawing (band with a group and pick ending numbers 0-9). You are guaranteed an xp scroll per character and one rank 4 prize. I picked my numbers using 3 10-sided die for the first three, then went 0-9 in the 10's column one number per character, and 0-9 in the ones column for each character. I won what I expected to win for these characters and have no complaints.

For the last three mules, I followed Shantotto's strategy and had the moogles pick the numbers. This is what they picked:

11th mule
36389
25270
81216
32507
98985
54343
21452
05218
21278
10181

12th mule
34761
47218
58307
94127
74567
83278
16901
70529
90563
98707

13th mule
94127
47078
72569
58303
41274
54103
56383
74301
72965
92327

What I would like to know is: What are the odds that 30 randomly generated numbers would follow these patterns? I'm sure some people will get all upset that I didn't double-check and make sure my random numbers didn't follow a pattern, but geez, why would I even think that a system that games like FFXII, God of War, and Grand Theft Auto are played on couldn't generate 5 random digits? The SE programmers gave us a spiffy alternate world to play on, I just assumed they didn't make a coding error. Oh well, I will pay more attention next time.
#148 Jul 01 2008 at 3:01 PM Rating: Decent
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Usually when sections of code need to be written for different systems, they have teams that do the job. I bet SE follows the same format - ps2 people, pc people, 360 people. Each team would program the code for that system's mogbonanza number generator. This is why I think it was a mistake rather than done on purpose.


EOEOE or OEOEO is not something that just accidentally ends up in a 5-digit RNG.
#149 Jul 01 2008 at 3:07 PM Rating: Good
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There isn't any reason, other than wanting to make a RNG that appears random but really is not. Which you would do if you were trying to cheat people.

You know what would be an even easier way to SE to have given out less gil? They could have had the lottery pay less.

You're actually arguing that SE created a flawed number generator with the express intent of keeping players from winning as much, when it would have been much easier to just make the prizes less. Do you really think a grand prize of 50m gil would have discouraged people from entering?

So, your argument has two rather significant flaws:
1) You assume that SE conspired to discreetly do something that they could have done in plain sight.
2) You assume that SE cares about hoarding virtual cash, when they can create more of it any time they want (and when it sure looks like the whole point of the event was to add cash to the economy).

None of that proves that your interpretation of events is wrong. However, you sure have to assume some strange things for it to be right.
#150 Jul 01 2008 at 3:38 PM Rating: Default
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You know what would be an even easier way to SE to have given out less gil? They could have had the lottery pay less.


Then the payouts most likely would have been stacked against the player, so only people who didn't know how to spend their money, wanted a prize other than the gil, or people with too much time/money on their hands to care would have bothered with it anyway.


Quote:
Do you really think a grand prize of 50m gil would have discouraged people from entering?


If the fee for a marble was the same, then yeah, it would have discouraged me. I'm sure not everyone else would say the same thing, but personally, I don't really care to lose 10 of my inventory slots in order to play a game where the payouts are stacked against me from the beginning.


Quote:
1) You assume that SE conspired to discreetly do something that they could have done in plain sight.


They ninja edit/fix stuff all the time... there's a LOT they don't tell us about their game, lol.


Quote:
2) You assume that SE cares about hoarding virtual cash, when they can create more of it any time they want (and when it sure looks like the whole point of the event was to add cash to the economy).


Wrong. The whole point of the event was for SE to collect a bunch extra in subscription fees. It didn't have to be that way, of course, but almost everyone I know made extra mules just for this event. And due to the way they released the winning numbers (waited over a month, when it should have taken maybe 2 minutes to generate the 5 necessary random numbers, and of course, they waited until the end of the month to release the numbers so that all the people who bought extra mules would be forced to pay for them for another month in order to get any rewards they might have won), it's obvious they did this purely for money. Not a big surprise, they are a business after all, but the way they handled the numbers just made it... incredibly obvious. To me it's kinda like restaurants that consider the tip to be counted in the cost of your meal (as in, you're forced to pay the tip they specify). That's just a sneaky way of raising the cost of your food while still advertising it to be a cheaper price. It's not so sneaky from my point of view, but whatever.

Yes, they can create more gil whenever they like, but how do they give it to any one person without making it appear like GM bias or anything like that? They don't, and that's where events like these come in.

I am curious to see, however, just how much gil actually was produced as a result of this event. I doubt we'll get any all-encompassing statistics of how many marbles were purchased and what prizes the winners chose, but if we had an idea of how many marbles were bought on a server and how many prizes were won on each server, we could at least guess how much maximum "potential" gil was generated.
#151 Jul 01 2008 at 3:38 PM Rating: Decent
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Dude, just shut up... people were under the impression that they were getting legitimate random numbers picked for them, not "random" in the sense of an essentially pre-programmed list of numbers that were guaranteed to be losses.


Of course, everyone won something, right? An EXP Scroll? I myself did not participate in this, but here's how i see it if *everyone* at least got an XP scroll...

You have real life "Lotto" games, like the Bonanza, right? So how many times have you heard "We're still looking for the lucky winner for ticket number #1234566! if you have it, come claim your prize now!". If it's true that everyone at least won something, It wouldn't really matter how they generated your number, as i think that it could be that what they did was took *all* of the numbers that people chose (or had chosen for them via the moogles), and then randomly selected from within that list. This would avoid the "This guy won, but 6 months later hasn't chosen his prize yet". So if that's how they did it, then hey, no worries about how your number was generated because you all had the same chance to win.

Anyway, all of this is speculation on all our parts. The winners got some nifty stuff (i mean c'mon...how many times have you sat there when a PT disbands and said "Damnit, i just need 1k more!". HERE'S YOUR SCROLL!). At least they did it, and it was something different. 6 years and this is the first of it's kind. Maybe they'll do it again each year? Stay tuned!
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