1
Forum Settings
       
Reply To Thread

The unfairness of mog bonanza towards PS2 playersFollow

#177 Jul 02 2008 at 9:05 AM Rating: Good
Jack of All Trades
******
29,633 posts
Quote:
Something that's been touched on but never directly said is the actual reason why this is unfair. Since the PS2 could only get numbers following OEOEO or EOEOE, that created a very large number of entries following those patterns. Since the number of possible combinations under those patterns is much smaller than the 10,000 actual combinations one could make, SE obviously had to pick a number that doesn't follow those patterns or else we would have an unbelievable number of people picking up the 100mil today.

It pains me to see people calling this a conspiracy theory or that it was completely fair. If a truly random number had been chosen, it could have had enormous effects on the economy across the board, effectively ******** the hell out of all new players or those that didn't win anything. Especially now that this pattern has come to light, it would have been very damaging to the economy if a number following OEOEO or EOEOE had been chosen.


This guy gets it, and also nailed the precise reason why they "had" to avoid alternating digit patterns for the winning numbers due to their "***** up".
#178 Jul 02 2008 at 9:09 AM Rating: Decent
***
1,056 posts
Ok, so I'm not sure if this has been posted yet or not, but I've read a lot of people wondering why it took SE so long to pick the numbers....

SE didn't take a long time to pick the numbers because they wanted to hand pick the winners and ***** over PS2 players, they took so long because they KNEW people were gonna make 3/4/5++ mules JUST FOR THIS, so they gave people plenty of time to make a mule and level it to 5 to buy the marble on it, keep the mule through not one, but TWO billing cycles, and find out that their mule (that they're probably going to delete the second they realize that they didn't win jack on it) only MAYBE won an exp scroll or two.

Face it, SE probably made on average an extra 4-5 bucks PER SUBSCRIBER these past two months. They woulda been stupid to have the drawing the same month that they picked the numbers.

I'm sorry, I just don't understand where you're all seeing where PS2 players "had no chance to win".
#179 Jul 02 2008 at 9:11 AM Rating: Decent
Thayos wrote:

Ok, I'm still not understanding why people are angry about this.

Five drawings were held, and -- unless SE hand-picked the results, which we have no evidence to support -- one number was chosen in each drawing.

In each drawing, the number 46237 (EEEOO) had as much of a chance being picked as 12345 (OEOEO).

Even if the moogles did follow an EOEOE formula, I don't see how that affected anyone's chances of winning the lottery.

As I've said... if people cared that much about which numbers they had, why didn't they pick their own? Or, why didn't they toss their EOEOE or OEOEO marbles, if they didn't like that configuration of numbers?


Thayos, I see where you are coming from but let's look at it this way.
Suppose every plyaer only chose the moogle option. Every single player, on every single platform. So we have

Playerx = 360 non EOEOE
Playery = PC non EOEOE
Playerz = Ps2 EOEOE

Scenario 1
SE hold random drawing: Number comes with EOEOE pattern.
Now since the ps2 was the only console to have random numbers with such a pattern, there is a boatload of winners and this floods the market. It stands to reason that upon examining the numbers SE would see that numerous PS2 players have this number, and there are multiple winners. They see this as a problem, and do another roll. They continue to do this until they get a number that they are comfortable with.

Scenario 2
SE holds random drawing: Number comes out with a non EOEOE pattern
Now since the ps2 was the only console to have random numbers with such a pattern, no PS2 player even has the possibility of winning in this lottery.

I don't know why you don't see a problem with that, but I think that eliminating 1/3 of the playerbase from winning anything is a very big issue.



blastfurnace wrote:

Personally I know I would have lost either way, based on the fact that I chose my own numbers...and knowing the winning numbers now. Had I went with mog picks for all my marbles it wouldn't have ended much differently. BUT, I find it retarded how many people bombard message boards with math geekery when an average Joe thinks they mighta got the short end of the stick. It's quite easy to realize that if someone thinks their random numbers have limitations, then their odds would be lower. That is, if they don't bow to the all father of mathdom (I dunno who it is...Odin, but more...mathy?). I really don't see alot of "ZOMG, FOUL!" posts...just, "Um...ok, why exactly did we get limited for our random pics?" I really don't see how it's lazy or just hellbound worthy that someone chose random and found out later that PS2 mogs were rigged. Seems like alot of PC peeps peeing on console peeps just for the hell of it.


Except it wasn't average joe that noticed it. It was the geeks who think that bad programming needs to be fixed.
#180 Jul 02 2008 at 9:19 AM Rating: Decent
**
512 posts
I got a random number from a moogle.

Since I didn't win, clearly I never had a chance from the begining.

My 1/10,000 chance failed, so the logical conclusion is that the event is rigged.
#181 Jul 02 2008 at 9:20 AM Rating: Default
I think it was a bad idea PERIOD to have a lotto type game. I knew something like this was gonna happen. Someone trying to find something bad about the system to use against SE. *sigh*

CANT WE ALL JUST GET ALONG? =(

Edited, Jul 2nd 2008 1:20pm by Neeny
#182 Jul 02 2008 at 9:24 AM Rating: Good
**
604 posts
This *****-up is statistically significant. Any real mathematician or statistician can see this. If this was a real life lottery people would be bringing in a multi million if not billion class action suit. As is, SE is lucky that there is no tax scheme for online currency yet, if there was, it is a an indictable federal offense to run a lottery this way (I remember the case for this but not off the top of my head). IMO as is they should have redone the lottery completely, kill all old balls and repick the number with all numbers generated server side. Easy way to do this is trade your old ball get a new one (with the option to reuse same number, pick a new number or random pick a new number).
#183 Jul 02 2008 at 9:36 AM Rating: Decent
**
288 posts
All I can say is I really doubt SE did this on purpose. They know the community, they know the fan sites, and they know that in doing something like this it would be caught pretty fast. As well as **** off a lot of people.

They had complete control over what number was picked.. they picked it. If they did do this on purpose, they went to a lot of trouble for nothing imo.
____________________________
Nobleblade ╬ Remora

#184 Jul 02 2008 at 10:07 AM Rating: Good
I'm not saying that they did this maliciously (thanks for the rates downs btw) - But I am saying that they almost assuredly went through several 'drawings' of the 'winning number' before they settled on what they presented to us AS the winning number, and unfortunately due to the statistical probability of PS2 players having more duplicate numbers across the playerbase with an EOEOE pattern than possible on the other two systems combined that did NOT use this pattern.....

Well let's just say I find it highly likely that SE figured this little error out long before we did, and didn't even bother to acknowledge it. Now you can say what you like about the system being fair - but anyone who has even taken a remedial math class knows that there are more possibilities with completely random numbers in an array of 5 positions, than there are with that same array only having even numbers in three positions and odd numbers in two. It's bad coding, and its definately not fair for one system to calculate a number in a completely different way than the other two.
#185 Jul 02 2008 at 10:11 AM Rating: Decent
**
512 posts
Quote:
they almost assuredly went through several 'drawings' of the 'winning number' before they settled on what they presented to us AS the winning number


Proof please.
#186 Jul 02 2008 at 10:20 AM Rating: Decent
**
828 posts
i know 2 different ps2 users one US and one Japan and both won rank 2 prizes. 1s taking black belt other wants rdm hat.

i personally had 1016 which is both so close and so far from a rank 2 prize and i play on vista. so settling for my rank 4 and rank 5 exp scrolls

dissapointed i didnt win 100 million but im not gonna kick up a fuss about it. ive never had a problem with money in game before so i certainly wont now. sure it would have been nice to afford a few luxuries like dusk+1 or something but if i wanted them so badly id craft and save for them.

if you lost get over it. if you won congratulations. end of the day you chose your numbers one way or another live with it. do you go buy a lottery ticket and get a "lucky dip" for the roll over then kick up a fuss cos it didnt win?
#187 Jul 02 2008 at 10:23 AM Rating: Decent
***
2,247 posts
Hmmmm clearly the problem here is there's too many math nerds, so everyone else unite for some epic math nerd wedging~!!!!
#188 Jul 02 2008 at 10:26 AM Rating: Decent
I thought this link was fitting.

http://failblog.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/calculus-fail.jpg
#189 Jul 02 2008 at 10:29 AM Rating: Decent
shanecf wrote:

Proof please.


1. I said almost assuredly. I did not say definately, but anyone with reasonable intelligence would consider that, in an MMORPG that has historically been plagued by RMT in every way imaginable, the winning numbers would be closely examined in order to ensure that valid players were winning prizes.

2. Does anyone have an account of one of their mules winning a top tier prize? I have heard of none, and while I realize that this is arguing by anecdote, I think it's safe to say that there are no level 1 mules running around with black belts or 100mil gil

3. The very way the numbers were chosen indicates that they never intended to take the first pick. If they had, the results would have been immediate, they would have just /random and given us the numbers. There would be no waiting period.

So take that with a grain of salt, but don't be so naive as to think that they just /random and took that initial number.



Edited, Jul 2nd 2008 2:32pm by TerrainFFXI
#190 Jul 02 2008 at 10:32 AM Rating: Decent
***
2,232 posts
Quote:
Proof please.


Conspiracy theorists don't need proof--they need sketchy half-assed motives....and to have the outcome be something they WANT to see happen.

Notice you'll almost never see a conspiracy theorist create a theory on something they don't want to be true. For whatever reason Fynlar has an agenda that SE hates PS2 players (and that maybe true, I'm not disputing that) and then uses it as proof that SE deliberately screwed over PS2 players in the mog bonanza.

There is a mystery with why all PS2 patterns were that way, but there's no mystery on why Fynlar would cry SE foul. :P
#191 Jul 02 2008 at 10:35 AM Rating: Good
***
2,915 posts
Dzian wrote:
do you go buy a lottery ticket and get a "lucky dip" for the roll over then kick up a fuss cos it didnt win?


If you choose to have the system randomly pick your numbers, and then find out that system intentionally could only pick from certain numbers instead of all available numbers in the series, yes. Especially if someone else playing the same lotto, and also having theirs randomly picked by the system, had a working machine which used random numbers from the full array. Now imagine if it was so wide spread, that the majority of people playing the lottery were given numbers from this flawed machine.

Such a discrepancy would completely undermine the lottery system, and there would be hell to pay, all the way up the ladder, and more law suits than you can shake a stick at. I guarantee everyone of the people who were given the flawed numbers would win the suit. It wouldn't matter if their odds were any different from anyone else to win in the end, the system still broke down.
#192 Jul 02 2008 at 10:39 AM Rating: Default
**
828 posts
Mistress Melphina wrote:
Quote:
What I would like to know is: What are the odds that 30 randomly generated numbers would follow these patterns?


The odds of any one marble following this pattern are 50%, so half of the possible potential numbers would follow EOEOE and OEOEO pattern. Therefore 0.5 (50%) to the power of 30 is your answer

0.5 ^ 30 == 0.0000000009313

You're looking at approximately a one in 1,000,000,000 chance, thats one in one billion. Now consider that the odds of winning the grand prize in the real life powerball itself are one in about 164 something million, and you would have the probability of winning the real life powerball six times before you got the sequences you did over those 30 marbles in game. So either the moogle wasn't as random as we thought, or it's time to start playing the powerball for real >.>.

I wish the answer was the latter, I could live with retiring from my job at my young age ; ;. *thinks of that and dreams*........ /big sigh

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 9:44pm by Melphina


this also is totally wrong.

going with just the 3:2 ratio of odd even or v.v ya options are this
oooee ooeoe oeooe eoooe ooeeo OEOEO eooeo oeeoo eoeoo eeooo
eeeoo eeoeo eoeeo oeeeo eeooe EOEOE oeeoe eooee oeoee ooeee

resulting in 2/20 combinations for the particular 3:2 ratio resulting in a 10% chance of either eoeoe or oeoeo.
#193 Jul 02 2008 at 10:41 AM Rating: Good
Jack of All Trades
******
29,633 posts
All the people who think this topic and anyone supporting it are solely just whining about not winning are pretty funny. Way to miss the point.

Again, I didn't even get my numbers "randomly" picked. That doesn't mean I still can't view the whole flawed RNG thing as ********* In this day and age, there is no excuse for that kind of thing.
#194 Jul 02 2008 at 10:43 AM Rating: Decent
SKSmokes wrote:

Conspiracy theorists don't need proof--they need sketchy half-assed motives....and to have the outcome be something they WANT to see happen.

Notice you'll almost never see a conspiracy theorist create a theory on something they don't want to be true. For whatever reason Fynlar has an agenda that SE hates PS2 players (and that maybe true, I'm not disputing that) and then uses it as proof that SE deliberately screwed over PS2 players in the mog bonanza.

There is a mystery with why all PS2 patterns were that way, but there's no mystery on why Fynlar would cry SE foul. :P


I'm not a conspiracy theorist - I actually don't think this WAS a conspiracy. I think it was poor programming or just poor copy and pasting, in a looooong history of poor programming and poor copy and pasting by a top tier company.

One of the things I hate hearing is Ps2 Limitations when we are talking about things that I know could very easily be implemented if they had the inclination to add them. The Ps2 Limitations card is played far too much, and it's really time they stepped up to the plate and told the truth. I don't think they are trying to push the Ps2 playerbase out (because let's face it, people are still going to play on the Ps3 regardless of whether or not they redesign to take advantage of it), but they aren't paying as much attention to the programming for it in certain instances.

What I believe is that they reused a block of code that generated a number fitting a pattern for a previous event or some such thing, that they INTENDED that functionality for. Since the programming is different for 360/pc versus Ps2, it stands to reason that when they reused previously made blocks of code, they copied one without realizing that it wasn't going to work the way they expected.

If this is the case, I would expect that they at least speak up and say yes, we reused some code in error. But I in no way suggest that they intended this to happen from the start.

Edited, Jul 2nd 2008 2:46pm by TerrainFFXI
#195 Jul 02 2008 at 10:56 AM Rating: Excellent
****
7,451 posts
Dzian wrote:
i know 2 different ps2 users one US and one Japan and both won rank 2 prizes. 1s taking black belt other wants rdm hat.


I'm a PS2 player who won two rank 4 and one rank 3 prizes.

HOWEVER, the numbers that ended up winning were numbers I picked, NOT numbers the moogle picked for me.

Chances are your two friends will tell you the same thing.

I'm surprised more people aren't getting what the "problem" is...

Well, it's ONLY a problem if you believe the conspiracy that SE handpicked the numbers (which is plausible given the fact that fewer people won than statistics expected).

But, mathmaticians and statisticians will both agree that IF the numbers were handpicked in order to come up with a specific quantity of winners, then the fact that having one of the gaming engines automatically limit the numbers into EOEOE or OEOEO (jungle love) formats would help create numbers that SE would NOT choose when they went through handpicking the "winners".

That is a very big -if- though, so it must be taken with a grain of salt.

At the end of the day though, it was a pretty dumb move to let the people in charge of the lotto choose your numbers for you. Common sense would dictate that you play numbers of your own choosing so as to keep as much of the "game" in your hands as possible.

What absolutely sucks is that there is no recourse for this. SE would not admit to handpicking anything, and unless there is some sort of proof, even EOEOE or OEOEO (jungle love) numbers could have potentially been winning numbers (although it certainly lends credability to the conspiracy that none of the winning numbers were EOEOE or OEOEO (jungle love), doesn't it).

/shrug

#196 Jul 02 2008 at 11:02 AM Rating: Decent
**
512 posts
Quote:
1. I said almost assuredly. I did not say definately, but anyone with reasonable intelligence would consider that, in an MMORPG that has historically been plagued by RMT in every way imaginable, the winning numbers would be closely examined in order to ensure that valid players were winning prizes.

2. Does anyone have an account of one of their mules winning a top tier prize? I have heard of none, and while I realize that this is arguing by anecdote, I think it's safe to say that there are no level 1 mules running around with black belts or 100mil gil

3. The very way the numbers were chosen indicates that they never intended to take the first pick. If they had, the results would have been immediate, they would have just /random and given us the numbers. There would be no waiting period.

So take that with a grain of salt, but don't be so naive as to think that they just /random and took that initial number.


Proof please.
#197 Jul 02 2008 at 11:07 AM Rating: Default
Scholar
Avatar
*****
12,820 posts
For #2 I'm quite a sure a Japanese mule had a rank 1 marble unless it was shopped. Smiley: sly
____________________________

#198 Jul 02 2008 at 11:08 AM Rating: Decent
Jack of All Trades
******
29,633 posts
Quote:
At the end of the day though, it was a pretty dumb move to let the people in charge of the lotto choose your numbers for you. Common sense would dictate that you play numbers of your own choosing so as to keep as much of the "game" in your hands as possible.


That is true and is mostly why I picked my own numbers, but in all honesty, most of the time we can trust things like RL lottery numbers, Keno ticket numbers, and whatnot to actually be picked randomly, and fairly, should the player request it.

Whether this whole incident was really foul play or not, SE has proven to us that they cannot be given the same sort of trust.
#199 Jul 02 2008 at 11:12 AM Rating: Good
Dlot wrote:
Without even getting into why it's not bullsh*t for the PS2ers, I still don't understand why anyone would let the moogle pick their numbers. If you do XXXX0 XXXX1 XXXX2, etc. you can at least guarantee yourself an exp scroll.


And by doing that, you would have been guaranteed at not getting two or more exp scrolls. What's your point?
#200 Jul 02 2008 at 11:18 AM Rating: Decent
***
2,418 posts
We all had the option to pick our own numbers. Those of us who didn't can't complain that the system did a bad job of it, we gave up the responsibility for an easier solution.

Think of it this way: if your wife asked you to pick 10 colors to repaint the house and then complained at the choice you made, what would you do? I know I'd say "stfu, go get the colors you wanted and repaint it yourself".
#201 Jul 02 2008 at 11:21 AM Rating: Decent
**
336 posts
TerrainFFXI wrote:
shanecf wrote:

Proof please.


2. Does anyone have an account of one of their mules winning a top tier prize? I have heard of none, and while I realize that this is arguing by anecdote, I think it's safe to say that there are no level 1 mules running around with black belts or 100mil gil

Edited, Jul 2nd 2008 2:32pm by TerrainFFXI


Assassinator of Ramuh won on his mule...

http://www.bluegartrls.com/forum/showthread.php?t=59863&page=10
Reply To Thread

Colors Smileys Quote OriginalQuote Checked Help

 

Recent Visitors: 305 All times are in CST
Anonymous Guests (305)