I am a network engineer by profession, and have several certifications, etc. I feel this gives me a rather reasonable amount of knowledge on this subject - So no, I'm not just sitting here going "durr, it must be SE!!11"
To start, let's use Occam's Razor at it's best: Square-Enix is undergoing network congestion issues, and shortly after a large portion of the population has connection issues. It is quite logical to assume that the two are related.
It is not logical to assume that such a small update (sub100mb!) caused this issue, when such large updates as XP SP1 and SP2 were pushed out to a far greater amount of people without causing issues on the ISP end.
Now, for the more technical side:
Many people have had issues fixed by changing their IP address. Now, ISPs work by placing their customers behind a NAT (Network Adress Translation). There aren't enough IPv4 IPs out there for every single person to have their own, so you get assigned a private address, and at the ISP's border, they translate it into a public one.
ISPs take your MAC address, and use this to assign the private IP you use while still inside their network. Changing this can get you a different private IP, and thus put you in a different NAT pool.
This results in you getting a new public IP.
All of this takes place internally. You're still going to be going through the same routers to get to the internet.
But let's look at what goes on at SE's end: They have different server groups behind different routers. This can be verified by netstat and other networking tools.
They also just pushed out an update that caused them massive congestion issues.
Now, to make sure traffic flows as smoothly as possible, a thing called QoS, or Quality of Service, is used. It can allocate more bandwidth to certain protocols, or outright block traffic, and more. For those wanting to get the highest level of Cisco certification, QoS is a subject they have to learn well, and those in the industry deal with it quite often, especially in high traffic environments.
QoS is also something that can, when misconfigured, cause a networking nightmare of issues.
People getting the R0 error can still /tell other players, and people see them moving and talking, and so on. However, they are not getting NPC and other info from the servers. People are still able to send packets, which is why they can still zone (This is also reason that teleport and speed hacks work, because you report your location to the server).
Now, if QoS was adjusted to alleviate or prevent future congestion issues, then it could very well be being improperly applied to traffic. Changing your IP can get your out of a set of QoS rulings, which is why this solves the issue for quite a few people.
Now, for those that it doesn't, it is still quite simply explained: You are being placed under the same QoS rulings on this new IP address, or have been assigned another IP address under this rulings (More unlikely, due to the fact they do not appear to be handing out the QoS rules over IP ranges, as a new IP on the same class C range as my old IP worked fine for me, and the chance of being assigned the same IP as someone else under these rulings is rather slim).
As different zones are on different servers behind different routers, this explains why communication and certain still zones still work fine.
I could be wrong, as I'm certainly not positive this is the reason, and cannot be without access to SE's network, but from my experience and knowledge on the subject, this is what I believe to be the most reasonable explanation.
Edited, Mar 13th 2007 10:46pm by Exodus