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HQ Mystery Solved?Follow

#1 Aug 30 2004 at 3:20 PM Rating: Excellent
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First off a big thank you to most of the Allakahzam community for piquing my interest in looking into the HQ mystery. What follows is my research in the realm of HQ. My methodology was to explore as many of the different angles that have been brought up on this forum as I could.

I. Possible Contributing Factors Considered

Skill Level – It is rumored that the HQ chance is not linear, but is actually tiered. It is further rumored that there is a maximum chance that hovers somewhere around 50%.

Crystal/Day – The crystal I use is always Wind for the purposes of this experiment. The analysis will focus on the Days in relation to this one crystal.

Moon Phase – Only 3 moon phases will be considered, New Moon (0%), Full Moon (100%), and Quarter Moon (50%)

Direction Faced – I’m not even going to take this one into consideration, but will face the same direction for every synth……just in case.

II. Conditions

I am currently at level 61 Woodworking. The target synths will be wands. Wands were chosen because 1) They have only one HQ level, 2) They are cheap to synth, 3) They exist at regular intervals in the different skill levels, and 4) I can make money off of them. ^^

III. Results and Analysis

This experiment consisted of A LOT of synths, 2304 to be exact, not counting breaks. All of my data is in Excel format, and for the sake of space I will not post all of the raw data here. I will only be posting the relevant results. If people actually want the raw numbers, I can post them……if you really want them……I suppose…….-_-

Experiment 1: Maple Wands (Skill Cap 6)

The results from synthing Maple Wands were inconclusive. I consistently achieved HQs 40-50% of the time. I attribute these results to difference between my skill level and the skill cap being over 50, therefore reaching the cap on HQ chance. Because of this, I did not consider these results in the overall analysis.

Experiment 2 & 3: Willow Wands (Skill Cap 14) & Yew Wands (Skill Cap 23)
The Data:

Day          Moon Phase Synths   HQs HQ Percent 
Firesday     New Moon     48     21  43.75% 
Earthsday    New Moon     48     13  27.08% 
Watersday    New Moon     48     19  39.58% 
Windsday     New Moon     48     15  31.25% 
Iceday       New Moon     48     27  56.25% 
Lightningday New Moon     48     17  35.42% 
Lightsday    New Moon     48     12  25.00% 
Darksday     New Moon     48     28  58.33% 
Firesday     Full Moon    48     10  20.83% 
Earthsday    Full Moon    48      6  12.50% 
Watersday    Full Moon    48      8  16.67% 
Windsday     Full Moon    48      7  14.58% 
Iceday       Full Moon    48     13  27.08% 
Lightningday Full Moon    48      8  16.67% 
Lightsday    Full Moon    48      6  12.50% 
Darksday     Full Moon    48     13  27.08% 
Firesday     Quarter Moon 48     12  25.00% 
Earthsday    Quarter Moon 48      7  14.58% 
Watersday    Quarter Moon 48      8  16.67% 
Windsday     Quarter Moon 48      9  18.75% 
Iceday       Quarter Moon 48     17  35.42% 
Lightningday Quarter Moon 48     10  20.83% 
Lightsday    Quarter Moon 48      6  12.50% 
Darksday     Quarter Moon 48     15  31.25%




Analysis:

Crystal vs. Day:

If we average out all of the days, regardless of moon phase we get:
    Darksday          38.89% 
    Earthsday         18.06% 
    Firesday          29.86% 
    Iceday            39.58% 
    Lightningsday     24.31% 
    Lightsday         16.67% 
    Watersday         24.31% 
    Windsday          21.53%

From this we can conclude that Iceday and Darksday gave the highest results, and Earthsday and Lightsday gave the lowest. We notice Darksday and Lightsday are at the opposite ends of the spectrum. We must also note that Wind is weak against Ice, and is strong against Earth. The results reflect this relationship.

Moon Phase

If we average out all of the Moon Phases, regardless of days we get:
     Full Moon      18.49% 
     Quarter Moon   21.88% 
     New Moon       39.58%

From this we can conclude that New Moon gave the highest results, and Full Moon gave the lowest results.


So if we follow the indicators, our best results should be on Ice/Darksday on a New Moon, and our worst results should be on Light/Earthsday on a Full Moon. Pulling from the data above we get:
     Darksday    New Moon     58.33% 
     Iceday      New Moon     56.25% 
     Lightsday   Full Moon    12.50% 
     Earthsday   Full Moon    12.50%


For the sake of comparison:
     Darksday     New Moon    58.33% 
     Darksday     Full Moon   27.08% 
     Lightsday    New Moon    25.00% 
     Lightsday    Full Moon   12.50%


Experiment 4: Chestnut Wands (Skill Cap 32)

The results from synthing Chestnut Wands were inconclusive. I consistently achieved HQs 8-16% of the time regardless of moon phase or day of the week. Combining these results with my results from Experiment 1, leads me to believe that the HQ rate is indeed non-linear. Notice when I was 50+ above the skill cap, results became constant. With Experiment 4 I am less than 30 above the skill cap, however slightly, and my results again became constant.

While I do not have enough conclusive data to support it, I would speculate that the following tiers are in place:

Tier 1: at 51 above the skill cap Updated, see bottom
Tier 2: at 31 above the skill cap Updated, see bottom
Tier 3: around 10 above the skill cap
Tier 4: at or below the skill cap

With the following effects:

Tier 1: HQ capped at 50%
Tier 2: HQ greatly affected by moon phase and day
Tier 3: HQ minimally affected by moon phase and day
Tier 4: Minimal chance of HQ


IV. Conclusion

So what does all this mean? Is there a formula to HQ? Yes. But, it relies greatly upon the situation. I would have to say again, it appears that moon/day has the greatest effect on Tier 2 synths. However, regardless of which Tier your synth falls into, if you're going specifically for HQ items, my advice is as follows:

Craft during a new moon.
Craft on Darksday and/or the day your crystal is weak against.


Happy crafting to all, and may all your stuff sell after mine. ^^


Addendum

Each individual synth has no correlation to any other individual synth. Everyone has their philosophy (or should at least) when they go to synth HQ.

One synth is worthless when going for an HQ. I always synth a "stack" of materials, which generally ends up 12 total synths. It is these 12 synths that I use to determine my success each time. I've had times where I've gotten 1/12 when I was 50+ and I've had times when I've gone 8/12. I still say that 50% is the maximum CHANCE. I had X chance of synthing my HQs. If i get it, I had a good day, if I don't it was a bad day. I never do 48 synths in a sitting, except when I was tracking these numbers.

But, I would rather synth at a time that I have a 50% CHANCE of getting HQ, rather than 8%. I just decided to systematically track my results, rather than work with false assumptions (ex. getting 70% and saying OMG!!!! WAXING GIBBOUS IS THE BEST DAY!!!).

HQ is one way to make money in crafting. But, even with a formula, it is not a get rich quick way of making money. Making money in crafting relies on the fundamentals of any business, and the risks involved.



EDIT: Added 10/28/2004, edited again on 12/27/04
From my observations, it seems clear to me that the actual Tier break is 31. To satisfy the more inquisitive, this was determined with 108 total synths. The target synth was Chestnut Sabots, skill cap 32. 12 synths each day (total 36) were performed on 3 different New Moon/Icedays at skill level 61. This was repeated at skill level 62, and again at skill level 63.

The results were as follows:

Skill Level   # of Synths   # of HQ    PCT 
    61            36          4        11.1 
    62            36          5        13.9 
    63            36         15        41.7  

Whether or not this has any correlation to where the other tier breaks are, I have no idea.


EDIT: Added 11/1/2004
Here are the condtions:

Current Skill level 63

Target Synths were Holly Lumber (12) and Willow Lumber (13).

All synths were done over the course of Firesday > Earthsday> Watersday and a Full Moon.

Majority of the synths were on Earthsday/Full Moon. Technically the worst possible day to HQ with a Wind Crystal.


Results:
 
Synth           Total       HQ      PCT 
Holly Lumber     36         25      69.4% 
Willow Lumber    36          2       5.6%



I think I was getting pretty lucky with my HQ "rolls" since I ended up well above 50%, as well I wouldn't have expected any HQ on the Willow, and yet I got 2, and both were on Earthsday. o.O






Edited, Tue Dec 7 17:54:21 2004 by Eruntalon

Edited, Mon Dec 27 12:38:14 2004 by Eruntalon
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#2 Aug 30 2004 at 3:27 PM Rating: Decent
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Good information. I appreciate all your hard work, keep it up!
#3 Aug 30 2004 at 3:28 PM Rating: Decent
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Wow, excellent guide, & with data to support it!

Kudos! *rate up*
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#4 Aug 30 2004 at 3:30 PM Rating: Decent
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Bump. Very nicely organized. I would like to see more experimented done by yourself in order to contine making sure these results remain consistent. However, it seems to me that what you say makes sense and has been reflected across the board subtlety. Now its in just one spot and thank you for that. ^^.

Edit: Spelling and oh yeah Rate WAY up.

Edited, Mon Aug 30 16:33:17 2004 by TheConnoisseur
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#5 Aug 30 2004 at 3:30 PM Rating: Good
Smiley: jawdropSmiley: jawdropSmiley: jawdropSmiley: jawdropSmiley: jawdrop

Just wow.

How long did that take you?

Oh anyway thank you for doing this me and my friend were wondering when he could start HQing Shihei so I can get them cheaper.
#6 Aug 30 2004 at 3:40 PM Rating: Excellent
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Thanks people. I definitely intend to continue to test my results. Like I said, this was all done with Wind Crystals. So, now that I have a formula, I'm going to test it with my other crafts and crystals.

I'm not sure how a Dark Crystal would be affected....then again I don't know of any Dark Crystal recipies you can actually HQ, but I also haven't looked.^^

Oh, and this is data gathered, in small part over the last month, but in large part over the last week, to complete my data sets.
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#7 Aug 30 2004 at 3:42 PM Rating: Decent
I have to commend Eruntalon for all of the hard work put into this experiment. A definite rate-up and I'll be marking this thread down for when I boost up my other crafts (besides fishing) a bit.

Excellent work!



[Over 2,300 synths? Holy cow!]
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#8 Aug 30 2004 at 3:43 PM Rating: Decent
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I believe your tier theory is correct because a JP friend in my LS once told me that if your skill is 30-49 lvs above the cap, you have about 1 in 12 chance of HQ and if your lv is 50+, you have about 1/3 to 1/2 chance of HQ.
#9 Aug 30 2004 at 3:43 PM Rating: Default
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This definatly is conjouring new Gil making ideas up in my head.

I really look forward to seeing your results using earth crystals (As this would be really benificial to us woodworkers).

Bump WAY up =)
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#10 Aug 30 2004 at 3:45 PM Rating: Decent
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Great work here and worthy of a rate up. Its nice to see raw data that seems to go along with some of the theorys floating around out there. I'm sure this took a long time to put together.

It would be interesting to see someone with another craft around the same skill level try and duplicate results with a different crystal type. Highest craft is only 49, so I can't do the tiers correctly or else I would give it a try >.<;
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#11 Aug 30 2004 at 4:00 PM Rating: Good
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very nice info, good job. however some of the data is a bit hard to read. if you put the 'code' headers around some of those tables they should keep thier formatting and thus, line-up corectly with the column names and so on.

But as for other things Im still not sure what this 1/12 for 30 lvls above a synth is. Since lvl 60 Ive gotten 1/4 consitently on lvl 27-33 synths? With the lower lvl synths being much higher tho I havent recorded them they are close to 50%
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#12 Aug 30 2004 at 4:03 PM Rating: Decent
That must have taken a ton of work bravo
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#13 Aug 30 2004 at 4:46 PM Rating: Excellent
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Hey, thanks for the formatting tips. I've got it fixed now.
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#14 Aug 30 2004 at 5:00 PM Rating: Decent
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ahhh much better! I can see it now! rate up >^_^<
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Wow, that subligar is like a Rajas ring for your shlong.

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#15 Aug 30 2004 at 5:03 PM Rating: Excellent
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Lienna:

I agree, the 1/12 for 30 levels seems off, unless it is refering to the base chance, then you would add the moon/day effects on top of it.

Example, crafting on the worst day/moon combination I was getting around 12% which is close to 1/12. On the good crafting days I was getting above 50%.

But averaging all of the synths in that level range gives 26.65% which coincides with your 1/4 results.
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#16 Aug 30 2004 at 5:12 PM Rating: Decent
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hmm I suppose thats true, Ive never really cared about different days due to all the conflitcting data and such, so Ive jsut crafted whenever and each time I do it its been about 3/12 with a ~30 lvl difference. Took a recent break from teh game but when I return I will continue my desynthing notes and such to see what the pattern is there.
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Wow, that subligar is like a Rajas ring for your shlong.

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#17 Aug 30 2004 at 5:35 PM Rating: Excellent
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Added to sticky.
#18 Aug 30 2004 at 7:13 PM Rating: Good
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I make shihei (29) and my woodworking is at 66 so I am 37 lvs above the cap. I don't make them with guild support because I only make them while partying. From my experience, I rarely get HQ on shihei.

Anyway, I don't have a lot of data but I'll share what I have:

Beeswax uses firecrystal and it caps at 5. My alchemy is at 68 and I always use advance synth support. I always do 36 synths per Vana'diel day.

Day	Moon	#Fail	#NQ	#HQ1	#HQ2	#HQ3	%Fail	%NQ	%HQ1	%HQ2	%HQ3	%HQTotal	BeeswaxTotal 

Fire	NM 0%	1	16	17	2	0	2.78 	44.44 	47.22 	5.56 	0.00 	52.78 	56 

Fire	WXC 10%	4	12	18	2	0	11.11 	33.33 	50.00 	5.56 	0.00 	55.56 	54		 

Fire	WXC 38%	3	16	12	4	1	8.33 	44.44 	33.33 	11.11 	2.78 	47.22 	56		 

Earth	NM 2%	0	21	7	6	2	0.00 	58.33 	19.44 	16.67 	5.56 	41.67 	61		 

Earth	WXC 12%	5	18	6	5	2	13.89 	50.00 	16.67 	13.89 	5.56 	36.11 	53 


Water	WNC 33%	1	16	15	3	1	2.78 	44.44 	41.67 	8.33 	2.78 	52.78 	59		 

Water	FM 90%	0	16	14	6	0	0.00 	44.44 	38.89 	16.67 	0.00 	55.56 	62		 

Wind	WXC 36%	4	17	12	2	1	11.11 	47.22 	33.33 	5.56 	2.78 	41.67 	51		 

Wind	WXC 36%	0	15	16	5	0	0.00 	41.67 	44.44 	13.89 	0.00 	58.33 	62		 

Wind	LQM 48%	1	20	12	2	1	2.78 	55.56 	33.33 	5.56 	2.78 	41.67 	54		 

Wind	WNG 88%	1	12	18	3	2	2.78 	33.33 	50.00 	8.33 	5.56 	63.89 	65		 

Wind	FM 93%	1	15	14	4	2	2.78 	41.67 	38.89 	11.11 	5.56 	55.56 	63		 

Ice	LQM 57%	3	21	9	1	2	8.33 	58.33 	25.00 	2.78 	5.56 	33.33 	50 

Ice	WXG 86%	4	15	13	3	1	11.11 	41.67 	36.11 	8.33 	2.78 	47.22 	54		 

Lightning	FQM 50%	3	16	9	6	2	8.33 	44.44 	25.00 	16.67 	5.56 	47.22 	60		 

Lightning	WXG 88%	1	13	16	3	3	2.78 	36.11 	44.44 	8.33 	8.33 	61.11 	66		 

Lightning	WNG 93%	1	17	12	6	0	2.78 	47.22 	33.33 	16.67 	0.00 	50.00 	59		 

Light	WNC 14%	3	17	10	3	3	8.33 	47.22 	27.78 	8.33 	8.33 	44.44 	58		 

Light	WNC 14%	2	14	16	3	1	5.56 	38.89 	44.44 	8.33 	2.78 	55.56 	59		 

Light	WXG 71%	2	15	17	1	1	5.56 	41.67 	47.22 	2.78 	2.78 	52.78 	56		 

Dark	WNC 12%	2	20	10	4	0	5.56 	55.56 	27.78 	11.11 	0.00 	38.89 	52		 

Dark	WXG 64%	2	11	16	6	1	5.56 	30.56 	44.44 	16.67 	2.78 	63.89 	65		 

Dark	WNG 79%	0	20	10	3	1	0.00 	55.56 	27.78 	8.33 	2.78 	38.89 	53		 

Dark	FM 93%	3	16	8	8	1	8.33 	44.44 	22.22 	22.22 	2.78 	47.22 	60		 




I've done 864 synths and I don't think that's enough to prove anything so just use it as reference.
#19 Aug 30 2004 at 11:14 PM Rating: Excellent
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Squeegee,

Just at a quick glance of your data for beeswax, it falls into my theory on Tier 1 synths. You are well above the 50+ mark, so your synths will not be affected by day/moon.

Again, glancing quickly if we take your HQ percentages and average them it looks as though you';; end up right around 50%.

Thanks for the additional data to help support my findings.
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#20 Aug 31 2004 at 12:10 AM Rating: Decent
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I've actually noticed the exact opposite in my cooking.

I am 96.2 skill cooking and have noticed that i have the best luck with HQ1-3 on full moon on lightsday.

My main recipie is Fish Oil Broth which is a Lv37 cap, but I make noticably more HQ on lightsday, and even more-so on full moon.

It actually seems that new moon kills my HQ rate greatly. I'm not sure if the 2 crafts are thatmuch different... just my observastions^^

Good luck to all reaguardless^^
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#21 Aug 31 2004 at 12:29 AM Rating: Decent
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Quote:

Again, glancing quickly if we take your HQ percentages and average them it looks as though you';; end up right around 50%.



Yup, the average for me is 49.31%. I forgot to mention it.
#22 Aug 31 2004 at 12:48 AM Rating: Good
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That. was. excellent. Superb experimental method.

I may be able to supplement your data at some point in time, but for now, my commendations must suffice. Very nice work, Eruntalon!

Edited, Tue Aug 31 01:54:48 2004 by Arctyc
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#23 Aug 31 2004 at 3:10 AM Rating: Decent
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Absolutely wonderful!! RATE UP! RATE UP! RATE UP!
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#24 Aug 31 2004 at 3:43 AM Rating: Excellent
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This is great information. I want to bookmark this for future reference. I pressed the bookmark button. So the question is, how do I find this bookmark in the future? Lol, I have never done this before and I can't seem to find it. Any suggestions?
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#25 Aug 31 2004 at 4:44 AM Rating: Decent
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From a statistical point of view, this is an awesome post. Good work man. BTW, how much gil did you make fromt this? Have your wants even sold yet? What the heck did you do with them?
#26 Aug 31 2004 at 4:46 AM Rating: Decent
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HQ, Material Loss, Lvl Gain chart



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