I. Possible Contributing Factors Considered
Skill Level – It is rumored that the HQ chance is not linear, but is actually tiered. It is further rumored that there is a maximum chance that hovers somewhere around 50%.
Crystal/Day – The crystal I use is always Wind for the purposes of this experiment. The analysis will focus on the Days in relation to this one crystal.
Moon Phase – Only 3 moon phases will be considered, New Moon (0%), Full Moon (100%), and Quarter Moon (50%)
Direction Faced – I’m not even going to take this one into consideration, but will face the same direction for every synth……just in case.
I am currently at level 61 Woodworking. The target synths will be wands. Wands were chosen because 1) They have only one HQ level, 2) They are cheap to synth, 3) They exist at regular intervals in the different skill levels, and 4) I can make money off of them. ^^
III. Results and Analysis
This experiment consisted of A LOT of synths, 2304 to be exact, not counting breaks. All of my data is in Excel format, and for the sake of space I will not post all of the raw data here. I will only be posting the relevant results. If people actually want the raw numbers, I can post them……if you really want them……I suppose…….-_-
Experiment 1: Maple Wands (Skill Cap 6)
The results from synthing Maple Wands were inconclusive. I consistently achieved HQs 40-50% of the time. I attribute these results to difference between my skill level and the skill cap being over 50, therefore reaching the cap on HQ chance. Because of this, I did not consider these results in the overall analysis.
Experiment 2 & 3: Willow Wands (Skill Cap 14) & Yew Wands (Skill Cap 23)
Day Moon Phase Synths HQs HQ Percent Firesday New Moon 48 21 43.75% Earthsday New Moon 48 13 27.08% Watersday New Moon 48 19 39.58% Windsday New Moon 48 15 31.25% Iceday New Moon 48 27 56.25% Lightningday New Moon 48 17 35.42% Lightsday New Moon 48 12 25.00% Darksday New Moon 48 28 58.33% Firesday Full Moon 48 10 20.83% Earthsday Full Moon 48 6 12.50% Watersday Full Moon 48 8 16.67% Windsday Full Moon 48 7 14.58% Iceday Full Moon 48 13 27.08% Lightningday Full Moon 48 8 16.67% Lightsday Full Moon 48 6 12.50% Darksday Full Moon 48 13 27.08% Firesday Quarter Moon 48 12 25.00% Earthsday Quarter Moon 48 7 14.58% Watersday Quarter Moon 48 8 16.67% Windsday Quarter Moon 48 9 18.75% Iceday Quarter Moon 48 17 35.42% Lightningday Quarter Moon 48 10 20.83% Lightsday Quarter Moon 48 6 12.50% Darksday Quarter Moon 48 15 31.25%
Crystal vs. Day:
If we average out all of the days, regardless of moon phase we get:
Darksday 38.89% Earthsday 18.06% Firesday 29.86% Iceday 39.58% Lightningsday 24.31% Lightsday 16.67% Watersday 24.31% Windsday 21.53%
From this we can conclude that Iceday and Darksday gave the highest results, and Earthsday and Lightsday gave the lowest. We notice Darksday and Lightsday are at the opposite ends of the spectrum. We must also note that Wind is weak against Ice, and is strong against Earth. The results reflect this relationship.
If we average out all of the Moon Phases, regardless of days we get:
Full Moon 18.49% Quarter Moon 21.88% New Moon 39.58%
From this we can conclude that New Moon gave the highest results, and Full Moon gave the lowest results.
So if we follow the indicators, our best results should be on Ice/Darksday on a New Moon, and our worst results should be on Light/Earthsday on a Full Moon. Pulling from the data above we get:
Darksday New Moon 58.33% Iceday New Moon 56.25% Lightsday Full Moon 12.50% Earthsday Full Moon 12.50%
For the sake of comparison:
Darksday New Moon 58.33% Darksday Full Moon 27.08% Lightsday New Moon 25.00% Lightsday Full Moon 12.50%
Experiment 4: Chestnut Wands (Skill Cap 32)
The results from synthing Chestnut Wands were inconclusive. I consistently achieved HQs 8-16% of the time regardless of moon phase or day of the week. Combining these results with my results from Experiment 1, leads me to believe that the HQ rate is indeed non-linear. Notice when I was 50+ above the skill cap, results became constant. With Experiment 4 I am less than 30 above the skill cap, however slightly, and my results again became constant.
While I do not have enough conclusive data to support it, I would speculate that the following tiers are in place:
Tier 1: at 51 above the skill cap Updated, see bottom
Tier 2: at 31 above the skill cap Updated, see bottom
Tier 3: around 10 above the skill cap
Tier 4: at or below the skill cap
With the following effects:
Tier 1: HQ capped at 50%
Tier 2: HQ greatly affected by moon phase and day
Tier 3: HQ minimally affected by moon phase and day
Tier 4: Minimal chance of HQ
So what does all this mean? Is there a formula to HQ? Yes. But, it relies greatly upon the situation. I would have to say again, it appears that moon/day has the greatest effect on Tier 2 synths. However, regardless of which Tier your synth falls into, if you're going specifically for HQ items, my advice is as follows:
Craft during a new moon.
Craft on Darksday and/or the day your crystal is weak against.
Happy crafting to all, and may all your stuff sell after mine. ^^
Each individual synth has no correlation to any other individual synth. Everyone has their philosophy (or should at least) when they go to synth HQ.
One synth is worthless when going for an HQ. I always synth a "stack" of materials, which generally ends up 12 total synths. It is these 12 synths that I use to determine my success each time. I've had times where I've gotten 1/12 when I was 50+ and I've had times when I've gone 8/12. I still say that 50% is the maximum CHANCE. I had X chance of synthing my HQs. If i get it, I had a good day, if I don't it was a bad day. I never do 48 synths in a sitting, except when I was tracking these numbers.
But, I would rather synth at a time that I have a 50% CHANCE of getting HQ, rather than 8%. I just decided to systematically track my results, rather than work with false assumptions (ex. getting 70% and saying OMG!!!! WAXING GIBBOUS IS THE BEST DAY!!!).
HQ is one way to make money in crafting. But, even with a formula, it is not a get rich quick way of making money. Making money in crafting relies on the fundamentals of any business, and the risks involved.
EDIT: Added 10/28/2004, edited again on 12/27/04
From my observations, it seems clear to me that the actual Tier break is 31. To satisfy the more inquisitive, this was determined with 108 total synths. The target synth was Chestnut Sabots, skill cap 32. 12 synths each day (total 36) were performed on 3 different New Moon/Icedays at skill level 61. This was repeated at skill level 62, and again at skill level 63.
The results were as follows:
Skill Level # of Synths # of HQ PCT 61 36 4 11.1 62 36 5 13.9 63 36 15 41.7
Whether or not this has any correlation to where the other tier breaks are, I have no idea.
EDIT: Added 11/1/2004
Here are the condtions:
Current Skill level 63
Target Synths were Holly Lumber (12) and Willow Lumber (13).
All synths were done over the course of Firesday > Earthsday> Watersday and a Full Moon.
Majority of the synths were on Earthsday/Full Moon. Technically the worst possible day to HQ with a Wind Crystal.
Synth Total HQ PCT Holly Lumber 36 25 69.4% Willow Lumber 36 2 5.6%
I think I was getting pretty lucky with my HQ "rolls" since I ended up well above 50%, as well I wouldn't have expected any HQ on the Willow, and yet I got 2, and both were on Earthsday. o.O
Edited, Tue Dec 7 17:54:21 2004 by Eruntalon
Edited, Mon Dec 27 12:38:14 2004 by Eruntalon