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HQ Mystery Solved?Follow

#1 Aug 30 2004 at 3:20 PM Rating: Excellent
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First off a big thank you to most of the Allakahzam community for piquing my interest in looking into the HQ mystery. What follows is my research in the realm of HQ. My methodology was to explore as many of the different angles that have been brought up on this forum as I could.

I. Possible Contributing Factors Considered

Skill Level – It is rumored that the HQ chance is not linear, but is actually tiered. It is further rumored that there is a maximum chance that hovers somewhere around 50%.

Crystal/Day – The crystal I use is always Wind for the purposes of this experiment. The analysis will focus on the Days in relation to this one crystal.

Moon Phase – Only 3 moon phases will be considered, New Moon (0%), Full Moon (100%), and Quarter Moon (50%)

Direction Faced – I’m not even going to take this one into consideration, but will face the same direction for every synth……just in case.

II. Conditions

I am currently at level 61 Woodworking. The target synths will be wands. Wands were chosen because 1) They have only one HQ level, 2) They are cheap to synth, 3) They exist at regular intervals in the different skill levels, and 4) I can make money off of them. ^^

III. Results and Analysis

This experiment consisted of A LOT of synths, 2304 to be exact, not counting breaks. All of my data is in Excel format, and for the sake of space I will not post all of the raw data here. I will only be posting the relevant results. If people actually want the raw numbers, I can post them……if you really want them……I suppose…….-_-

Experiment 1: Maple Wands (Skill Cap 6)

The results from synthing Maple Wands were inconclusive. I consistently achieved HQs 40-50% of the time. I attribute these results to difference between my skill level and the skill cap being over 50, therefore reaching the cap on HQ chance. Because of this, I did not consider these results in the overall analysis.

Experiment 2 & 3: Willow Wands (Skill Cap 14) & Yew Wands (Skill Cap 23)
The Data:

Day          Moon Phase Synths   HQs HQ Percent 
Firesday     New Moon     48     21  43.75% 
Earthsday    New Moon     48     13  27.08% 
Watersday    New Moon     48     19  39.58% 
Windsday     New Moon     48     15  31.25% 
Iceday       New Moon     48     27  56.25% 
Lightningday New Moon     48     17  35.42% 
Lightsday    New Moon     48     12  25.00% 
Darksday     New Moon     48     28  58.33% 
Firesday     Full Moon    48     10  20.83% 
Earthsday    Full Moon    48      6  12.50% 
Watersday    Full Moon    48      8  16.67% 
Windsday     Full Moon    48      7  14.58% 
Iceday       Full Moon    48     13  27.08% 
Lightningday Full Moon    48      8  16.67% 
Lightsday    Full Moon    48      6  12.50% 
Darksday     Full Moon    48     13  27.08% 
Firesday     Quarter Moon 48     12  25.00% 
Earthsday    Quarter Moon 48      7  14.58% 
Watersday    Quarter Moon 48      8  16.67% 
Windsday     Quarter Moon 48      9  18.75% 
Iceday       Quarter Moon 48     17  35.42% 
Lightningday Quarter Moon 48     10  20.83% 
Lightsday    Quarter Moon 48      6  12.50% 
Darksday     Quarter Moon 48     15  31.25%




Analysis:

Crystal vs. Day:

If we average out all of the days, regardless of moon phase we get:
    Darksday          38.89% 
    Earthsday         18.06% 
    Firesday          29.86% 
    Iceday            39.58% 
    Lightningsday     24.31% 
    Lightsday         16.67% 
    Watersday         24.31% 
    Windsday          21.53%

From this we can conclude that Iceday and Darksday gave the highest results, and Earthsday and Lightsday gave the lowest. We notice Darksday and Lightsday are at the opposite ends of the spectrum. We must also note that Wind is weak against Ice, and is strong against Earth. The results reflect this relationship.

Moon Phase

If we average out all of the Moon Phases, regardless of days we get:
     Full Moon      18.49% 
     Quarter Moon   21.88% 
     New Moon       39.58%

From this we can conclude that New Moon gave the highest results, and Full Moon gave the lowest results.


So if we follow the indicators, our best results should be on Ice/Darksday on a New Moon, and our worst results should be on Light/Earthsday on a Full Moon. Pulling from the data above we get:
     Darksday    New Moon     58.33% 
     Iceday      New Moon     56.25% 
     Lightsday   Full Moon    12.50% 
     Earthsday   Full Moon    12.50%


For the sake of comparison:
     Darksday     New Moon    58.33% 
     Darksday     Full Moon   27.08% 
     Lightsday    New Moon    25.00% 
     Lightsday    Full Moon   12.50%


Experiment 4: Chestnut Wands (Skill Cap 32)

The results from synthing Chestnut Wands were inconclusive. I consistently achieved HQs 8-16% of the time regardless of moon phase or day of the week. Combining these results with my results from Experiment 1, leads me to believe that the HQ rate is indeed non-linear. Notice when I was 50+ above the skill cap, results became constant. With Experiment 4 I am less than 30 above the skill cap, however slightly, and my results again became constant.

While I do not have enough conclusive data to support it, I would speculate that the following tiers are in place:

Tier 1: at 51 above the skill cap Updated, see bottom
Tier 2: at 31 above the skill cap Updated, see bottom
Tier 3: around 10 above the skill cap
Tier 4: at or below the skill cap

With the following effects:

Tier 1: HQ capped at 50%
Tier 2: HQ greatly affected by moon phase and day
Tier 3: HQ minimally affected by moon phase and day
Tier 4: Minimal chance of HQ


IV. Conclusion

So what does all this mean? Is there a formula to HQ? Yes. But, it relies greatly upon the situation. I would have to say again, it appears that moon/day has the greatest effect on Tier 2 synths. However, regardless of which Tier your synth falls into, if you're going specifically for HQ items, my advice is as follows:

Craft during a new moon.
Craft on Darksday and/or the day your crystal is weak against.


Happy crafting to all, and may all your stuff sell after mine. ^^


Addendum

Each individual synth has no correlation to any other individual synth. Everyone has their philosophy (or should at least) when they go to synth HQ.

One synth is worthless when going for an HQ. I always synth a "stack" of materials, which generally ends up 12 total synths. It is these 12 synths that I use to determine my success each time. I've had times where I've gotten 1/12 when I was 50+ and I've had times when I've gone 8/12. I still say that 50% is the maximum CHANCE. I had X chance of synthing my HQs. If i get it, I had a good day, if I don't it was a bad day. I never do 48 synths in a sitting, except when I was tracking these numbers.

But, I would rather synth at a time that I have a 50% CHANCE of getting HQ, rather than 8%. I just decided to systematically track my results, rather than work with false assumptions (ex. getting 70% and saying OMG!!!! WAXING GIBBOUS IS THE BEST DAY!!!).

HQ is one way to make money in crafting. But, even with a formula, it is not a get rich quick way of making money. Making money in crafting relies on the fundamentals of any business, and the risks involved.



EDIT: Added 10/28/2004, edited again on 12/27/04
From my observations, it seems clear to me that the actual Tier break is 31. To satisfy the more inquisitive, this was determined with 108 total synths. The target synth was Chestnut Sabots, skill cap 32. 12 synths each day (total 36) were performed on 3 different New Moon/Icedays at skill level 61. This was repeated at skill level 62, and again at skill level 63.

The results were as follows:

Skill Level   # of Synths   # of HQ    PCT 
    61            36          4        11.1 
    62            36          5        13.9 
    63            36         15        41.7  

Whether or not this has any correlation to where the other tier breaks are, I have no idea.


EDIT: Added 11/1/2004
Here are the condtions:

Current Skill level 63

Target Synths were Holly Lumber (12) and Willow Lumber (13).

All synths were done over the course of Firesday > Earthsday> Watersday and a Full Moon.

Majority of the synths were on Earthsday/Full Moon. Technically the worst possible day to HQ with a Wind Crystal.


Results:
 
Synth           Total       HQ      PCT 
Holly Lumber     36         25      69.4% 
Willow Lumber    36          2       5.6%



I think I was getting pretty lucky with my HQ "rolls" since I ended up well above 50%, as well I wouldn't have expected any HQ on the Willow, and yet I got 2, and both were on Earthsday. o.O






Edited, Tue Dec 7 17:54:21 2004 by Eruntalon

Edited, Mon Dec 27 12:38:14 2004 by Eruntalon
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#2 Aug 30 2004 at 3:27 PM Rating: Decent
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Good information. I appreciate all your hard work, keep it up!
#3 Aug 30 2004 at 3:28 PM Rating: Decent
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Wow, excellent guide, & with data to support it!

Kudos! *rate up*
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#4 Aug 30 2004 at 3:30 PM Rating: Decent
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Bump. Very nicely organized. I would like to see more experimented done by yourself in order to contine making sure these results remain consistent. However, it seems to me that what you say makes sense and has been reflected across the board subtlety. Now its in just one spot and thank you for that. ^^.

Edit: Spelling and oh yeah Rate WAY up.

Edited, Mon Aug 30 16:33:17 2004 by TheConnoisseur
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#5 Aug 30 2004 at 3:30 PM Rating: Good
Smiley: jawdropSmiley: jawdropSmiley: jawdropSmiley: jawdropSmiley: jawdrop

Just wow.

How long did that take you?

Oh anyway thank you for doing this me and my friend were wondering when he could start HQing Shihei so I can get them cheaper.
#6 Aug 30 2004 at 3:40 PM Rating: Excellent
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Thanks people. I definitely intend to continue to test my results. Like I said, this was all done with Wind Crystals. So, now that I have a formula, I'm going to test it with my other crafts and crystals.

I'm not sure how a Dark Crystal would be affected....then again I don't know of any Dark Crystal recipies you can actually HQ, but I also haven't looked.^^

Oh, and this is data gathered, in small part over the last month, but in large part over the last week, to complete my data sets.
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#7 Aug 30 2004 at 3:42 PM Rating: Decent
I have to commend Eruntalon for all of the hard work put into this experiment. A definite rate-up and I'll be marking this thread down for when I boost up my other crafts (besides fishing) a bit.

Excellent work!



[Over 2,300 synths? Holy cow!]
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#8 Aug 30 2004 at 3:43 PM Rating: Decent
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I believe your tier theory is correct because a JP friend in my LS once told me that if your skill is 30-49 lvs above the cap, you have about 1 in 12 chance of HQ and if your lv is 50+, you have about 1/3 to 1/2 chance of HQ.
#9 Aug 30 2004 at 3:43 PM Rating: Default
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This definatly is conjouring new Gil making ideas up in my head.

I really look forward to seeing your results using earth crystals (As this would be really benificial to us woodworkers).

Bump WAY up =)
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#10 Aug 30 2004 at 3:45 PM Rating: Decent
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Great work here and worthy of a rate up. Its nice to see raw data that seems to go along with some of the theorys floating around out there. I'm sure this took a long time to put together.

It would be interesting to see someone with another craft around the same skill level try and duplicate results with a different crystal type. Highest craft is only 49, so I can't do the tiers correctly or else I would give it a try >.<;
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#11 Aug 30 2004 at 4:00 PM Rating: Good
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very nice info, good job. however some of the data is a bit hard to read. if you put the 'code' headers around some of those tables they should keep thier formatting and thus, line-up corectly with the column names and so on.

But as for other things Im still not sure what this 1/12 for 30 lvls above a synth is. Since lvl 60 Ive gotten 1/4 consitently on lvl 27-33 synths? With the lower lvl synths being much higher tho I havent recorded them they are close to 50%
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#12 Aug 30 2004 at 4:03 PM Rating: Decent
That must have taken a ton of work bravo
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#13 Aug 30 2004 at 4:46 PM Rating: Excellent
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Hey, thanks for the formatting tips. I've got it fixed now.
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#14 Aug 30 2004 at 5:00 PM Rating: Decent
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ahhh much better! I can see it now! rate up >^_^<
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#15 Aug 30 2004 at 5:03 PM Rating: Excellent
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Lienna:

I agree, the 1/12 for 30 levels seems off, unless it is refering to the base chance, then you would add the moon/day effects on top of it.

Example, crafting on the worst day/moon combination I was getting around 12% which is close to 1/12. On the good crafting days I was getting above 50%.

But averaging all of the synths in that level range gives 26.65% which coincides with your 1/4 results.
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#16 Aug 30 2004 at 5:12 PM Rating: Decent
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hmm I suppose thats true, Ive never really cared about different days due to all the conflitcting data and such, so Ive jsut crafted whenever and each time I do it its been about 3/12 with a ~30 lvl difference. Took a recent break from teh game but when I return I will continue my desynthing notes and such to see what the pattern is there.
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#17 Aug 30 2004 at 5:35 PM Rating: Excellent
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Added to sticky.
#18 Aug 30 2004 at 7:13 PM Rating: Good
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I make shihei (29) and my woodworking is at 66 so I am 37 lvs above the cap. I don't make them with guild support because I only make them while partying. From my experience, I rarely get HQ on shihei.

Anyway, I don't have a lot of data but I'll share what I have:

Beeswax uses firecrystal and it caps at 5. My alchemy is at 68 and I always use advance synth support. I always do 36 synths per Vana'diel day.

Day	Moon	#Fail	#NQ	#HQ1	#HQ2	#HQ3	%Fail	%NQ	%HQ1	%HQ2	%HQ3	%HQTotal	BeeswaxTotal 

Fire	NM 0%	1	16	17	2	0	2.78 	44.44 	47.22 	5.56 	0.00 	52.78 	56 

Fire	WXC 10%	4	12	18	2	0	11.11 	33.33 	50.00 	5.56 	0.00 	55.56 	54		 

Fire	WXC 38%	3	16	12	4	1	8.33 	44.44 	33.33 	11.11 	2.78 	47.22 	56		 

Earth	NM 2%	0	21	7	6	2	0.00 	58.33 	19.44 	16.67 	5.56 	41.67 	61		 

Earth	WXC 12%	5	18	6	5	2	13.89 	50.00 	16.67 	13.89 	5.56 	36.11 	53 


Water	WNC 33%	1	16	15	3	1	2.78 	44.44 	41.67 	8.33 	2.78 	52.78 	59		 

Water	FM 90%	0	16	14	6	0	0.00 	44.44 	38.89 	16.67 	0.00 	55.56 	62		 

Wind	WXC 36%	4	17	12	2	1	11.11 	47.22 	33.33 	5.56 	2.78 	41.67 	51		 

Wind	WXC 36%	0	15	16	5	0	0.00 	41.67 	44.44 	13.89 	0.00 	58.33 	62		 

Wind	LQM 48%	1	20	12	2	1	2.78 	55.56 	33.33 	5.56 	2.78 	41.67 	54		 

Wind	WNG 88%	1	12	18	3	2	2.78 	33.33 	50.00 	8.33 	5.56 	63.89 	65		 

Wind	FM 93%	1	15	14	4	2	2.78 	41.67 	38.89 	11.11 	5.56 	55.56 	63		 

Ice	LQM 57%	3	21	9	1	2	8.33 	58.33 	25.00 	2.78 	5.56 	33.33 	50 

Ice	WXG 86%	4	15	13	3	1	11.11 	41.67 	36.11 	8.33 	2.78 	47.22 	54		 

Lightning	FQM 50%	3	16	9	6	2	8.33 	44.44 	25.00 	16.67 	5.56 	47.22 	60		 

Lightning	WXG 88%	1	13	16	3	3	2.78 	36.11 	44.44 	8.33 	8.33 	61.11 	66		 

Lightning	WNG 93%	1	17	12	6	0	2.78 	47.22 	33.33 	16.67 	0.00 	50.00 	59		 

Light	WNC 14%	3	17	10	3	3	8.33 	47.22 	27.78 	8.33 	8.33 	44.44 	58		 

Light	WNC 14%	2	14	16	3	1	5.56 	38.89 	44.44 	8.33 	2.78 	55.56 	59		 

Light	WXG 71%	2	15	17	1	1	5.56 	41.67 	47.22 	2.78 	2.78 	52.78 	56		 

Dark	WNC 12%	2	20	10	4	0	5.56 	55.56 	27.78 	11.11 	0.00 	38.89 	52		 

Dark	WXG 64%	2	11	16	6	1	5.56 	30.56 	44.44 	16.67 	2.78 	63.89 	65		 

Dark	WNG 79%	0	20	10	3	1	0.00 	55.56 	27.78 	8.33 	2.78 	38.89 	53		 

Dark	FM 93%	3	16	8	8	1	8.33 	44.44 	22.22 	22.22 	2.78 	47.22 	60		 




I've done 864 synths and I don't think that's enough to prove anything so just use it as reference.
#19 Aug 30 2004 at 11:14 PM Rating: Excellent
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Squeegee,

Just at a quick glance of your data for beeswax, it falls into my theory on Tier 1 synths. You are well above the 50+ mark, so your synths will not be affected by day/moon.

Again, glancing quickly if we take your HQ percentages and average them it looks as though you';; end up right around 50%.

Thanks for the additional data to help support my findings.
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#20 Aug 31 2004 at 12:10 AM Rating: Decent
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I've actually noticed the exact opposite in my cooking.

I am 96.2 skill cooking and have noticed that i have the best luck with HQ1-3 on full moon on lightsday.

My main recipie is Fish Oil Broth which is a Lv37 cap, but I make noticably more HQ on lightsday, and even more-so on full moon.

It actually seems that new moon kills my HQ rate greatly. I'm not sure if the 2 crafts are thatmuch different... just my observastions^^

Good luck to all reaguardless^^
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#21 Aug 31 2004 at 12:29 AM Rating: Decent
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Quote:

Again, glancing quickly if we take your HQ percentages and average them it looks as though you';; end up right around 50%.



Yup, the average for me is 49.31%. I forgot to mention it.
#22 Aug 31 2004 at 12:48 AM Rating: Good
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That. was. excellent. Superb experimental method.

I may be able to supplement your data at some point in time, but for now, my commendations must suffice. Very nice work, Eruntalon!

Edited, Tue Aug 31 01:54:48 2004 by Arctyc
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#23 Aug 31 2004 at 3:10 AM Rating: Decent
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Absolutely wonderful!! RATE UP! RATE UP! RATE UP!
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#24 Aug 31 2004 at 3:43 AM Rating: Excellent
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This is great information. I want to bookmark this for future reference. I pressed the bookmark button. So the question is, how do I find this bookmark in the future? Lol, I have never done this before and I can't seem to find it. Any suggestions?
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#25 Aug 31 2004 at 4:44 AM Rating: Decent
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From a statistical point of view, this is an awesome post. Good work man. BTW, how much gil did you make fromt this? Have your wants even sold yet? What the heck did you do with them?
#26 Aug 31 2004 at 4:46 AM Rating: Decent
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HQ, Material Loss, Lvl Gain chart



#27 Aug 31 2004 at 9:04 AM Rating: Decent
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Very good post, one of the more thorough explainations and analysis of High Quality synths that I have seen thus far. Good job Eruntalon. I look foward to any future posts you may have.
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#28 Aug 31 2004 at 10:56 AM Rating: Excellent
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In response to the link that was posted above:

I looked at the graphic table and I don't agree with the information on that table. There doesn't seem to be any reasoning that I can follow.

Where did the graphic come from? I'm assuming that it is just a tracking chart of someone's personal experience. But it fails to take into account the moon phase.

Although I think I'll put together a chart or a graphic as a quick reference for my OP. So, thanks for the link, it's at least spurred some more thought. ^^
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#29 Aug 31 2004 at 12:57 PM Rating: Decent
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While at work and bored... I ran some numbers, and yes, what has been posted here has Statistical Significance (Great Analysis by the way). Here is the results..

General Linear Model

Analysis of Variance for Yield, using Adjusted SS for Tests

Source-----DF----SeqSS-------AdjSS-------AdjMS------F-------P
Day---------7----0.161434----0.161434---0.023062----16.56--0.000
Moon--------2----0.205325----0.205325---0.102662----73.73--0.000
Error------14----0.019493----0.019493---0.001392
Total------23----0.386252

This only proves that there is indeed a difference between the Day and the Moon Phase you are crafting with. Though, it would take a tremendous ammount of effort to pitch in the factor of how many levels above the cap, since you would have to do the same experiment... at different craft levels, to really determine an equation.

Oh, and the data does not follow a normal distribution. Meaning is not a common known behaviour bases on the probabilitie tables.

Have a good day

EDIT: Trying to fix the table.... ><

Edited, Tue Aug 31 14:01:08 2004 by ArcorTaru
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#30 Aug 31 2004 at 1:32 PM Rating: Decent
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There was a day when I was synthing caps into padded caps. I have level 55 smithing and caps max out at 34 so the difference in levels is about 21. I have this combination written in bold letters on my desk, b/c I got about 40% HQ strong caps. Guess what the combination said? NEW MOON - LIGHTNINGS DAY.

I had never synth'd so many HQ caps in my life. I mean I would get 4-5 in a row. Then 3 normals, then 3 HQ's. 5 normals, 1 HQ, 2 nomal, 2 HQ, over and over. Usually I get only about 2-3 out of 40 or so. This pretty much just confirms what you've done. So according to you theory, If I get to level 84 smithing, I can synth strong caps all day long no matter what the moon/day is. Well too bad b/c thats not happening for a while, hehe.
#31 Aug 31 2004 at 2:21 PM Rating: Excellent
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Hmmmm, I'm going to rerun some synths for the Tier 3 synths, that is 10 above the skill cap but less than 30. I'll run it on a different craft with a different crystal.

This way I can get more synths in for my gil, and I can also test my theories on another crystal/day combination.

It just seems to me that there should be more of an effect during Tier 3 synths. This part has been bugging me ever since I put together my first results.

I'll try to have an update by this weekend.
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#32 Aug 31 2004 at 2:24 PM Rating: Decent
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Awesome work my friend! However, I question what you were wearing at the time. I mean if you were waring alot of gear corrisponding to your results, maybe that could have been a result. For an example, having 2 Drone Earrings on is +12 Wind If I believe, or if you had Chrysoberyl Rings, thats +12 Earth also. Have an Ice Staff on? Hmmm.

Just another variable im throwing out at you. I dont believe in the direction variable, as its just too random. This is an RPG game, and they are statistic based, and these stats could easily be pulled from the crafting formula (Elemental defense I mean).

If this was done naked, then I would conclude that ELemental defense doesnt have anything to do with your crafting..

Also, what about your moghouse?
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#33 Aug 31 2004 at 2:42 PM Rating: Excellent
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Kailkun,

Another interesting possible variable that has been mentioned before. I did most if not all my crafting as a Paladin. I had my two Stamina Rings on, giving me +8 Earth, and my Pixie Mace, +3 to Light and Dark, also 2 Onyx Earring which are +2 Dark each, and my Turtle Shield which is +6 to Water.

So, my ancillary elemental influences were:

+8 Earth
+3 Light
+7 Dark
+6 Water
Moghancement: Gardening with faint Earth energy.

So I could say it didn't have any effect. Or, I could say it had a great effect as follows:

+8 Earth and faint earth energy => WInd is strong to Earth => easier to synth = Less HQ chance

+7 Dark => more difficult to craft => Higher HQ chance

So I may have effectively canceled myself out. ><

This will be something I may experiment with in the future, when I get some really high elemental effects, or eventually get an overwhelming energy in my moghouse.
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#34 Aug 31 2004 at 5:41 PM Rating: Excellent
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Very informative post, and many thanks for taking the time to do this. I would, however, like to reinterpret some of the data, and how it's presented.


First, some extra data that I think would be useful (which I expect you probably have in your original data spreadsheets) would be number of failures in each set. Also, while perhaps somewhat inconclusive, I'd like to see the data for your fourth experiment. Even if slight, it should be possible to see if there's a positive correlation among those numbers, and it would help in analyzing the overall trend. It would also be nice if you could separate out the willow from the yew wand experiments. (heck, might as well just ask for the whole data set that you offered... )

In general it seems that there are two different ways to look at how HQ synths can be achieved.

First: Take your skill versus the difficulty of the synth, add in environmental factors (moon phase, day, etc), add random roll, and if you get high enough you reach the cutoff for a +1 or higher HQ.

Second: Make an initial behind-the-scenes roll based on your skill level vs. the difficulty of the synth to determine what level of NQ/HQ you will attempt to make, then make the standard check to see if you succeed in the crafting. An HQ may or may not have a higher difficulty level, and thereby higher failure rate at a given skill level.

The reason the second comes to mind is because of the additional data provided by Squeegee, where the number of failures seems to increase in conjunction with the number of HQ2 and HQ3 results he achieved. In other words, not just your chance of successfully crafting an HQ, but your chance of even trying for an HQ is influenced by these factors.

Now, how could moon/day influence be nominal at low tiers but significant at the mid tiers? In a manner that's familiar to a number of different jobs (using, say, berserk, or mithkabobs): the influence is a percentage, not a flat value. Also note, the overall averages given in the OP mix in multiple influences, and thus dilute some of the data. I'll try to break some of that out below.

So, if I were to look for 'base chance' numbers among the values you've presented, I'd want neutral days and mid-period moons. The crystal is wind, so we want to avoid ice, wind, earth, light and dark days. That leaves fire, water and lightning. Your data on those three days on a quarter moon varies a fair bit: 25% on fire, 21% on lightning, 17% on water. Lightning day comes closest to the overall average of 22%, and lightning and water are the most consistantly close to the overall average, with fire tending towards slightly to noticeably higher.

(Edit: After some thought, I've reworked the baseline to use on these. Instead of 'neutral days', I'm using the day of the crystal as the baseline. The original is left in below, since the neutral days do in fact seem to be working with the same modifier.)

We thus see multiple tiered influences among the days. These can be categorized as:
Day of the crystal (DC)
Strong to the crystal (SC)
Strong to the day strong to the crystal (SSC)
Weak to the crystal (WC)
Weak to the day Weak to the crystal (WWC)
Opposite day (OD)
Lightday (LD)
Darkday (DD)


The influence each day seems to have on HQ rates, assuming the crystal day is 100%:

Day   Newmoon         Quartermoon       Fullmoon          Average 
DC     31.25%          18.75%            14.58%            100% 
SC     56.25% (180%)   35.42% (189%)     27.08% (185%)     185% 
SSC    43.75% (140%)   25.00% (133%)     20.83% (143%)     139% 
WC     27.08% (87%)    14.58% (78%)      12.50% (86%)       84% 
WWC    35.42% (113%)   20.83% (111%)     16.67% (114%)     113% 
OD     39.58% (127%)   16.67% (89%)      16.67% (114%)     110% 
LD     25.00% (80%)    12.50% (67%)      12.50% (86%)       78% 
DD     58.33% (187%)   31.25% (167%)     27.08% (186%)     180%



(original version with baseline of 'neutral days')
Day   Newmoon         Quartermoon       Fullmoon          Average 
ND     37.50%          18.75%            16.67%              0% 
DC     31.25% (83%)    18.75% (100%)     14.58% (88%)       90% 
SC     56.25% (150%)   35.42% (189%)     27.08% (162%)     167% 
WC     27.08% (72%)    14.58% (78%)      12.50% (75%)       75% 
SSC    43.75% (117%)   25.00% (133%)     20.83% (125%)     125% 
LD     25.00% (67%)    12.50% (67%)      12.50% (75%)       70% 
DD     58.33% (155%)   31.25% (167%)     27.08% (162%)     161%


We see very regular patterns emerge here. Let's try the same thing using the moon phase (Fullmoon being neutral; note: I originally ran the numbers using Quartermoon as the basline, but they really look like it's better to consider them with Fullmoon as baseline.)

(Edit: fixed a mistake that was left from the change in baselines)

Moon    FD    FD%  ED    ED%  WD    WD%  WiD   WiD% ID    ID%  LiD   LiD% LD    LD%  DD    DD%  Avg 
Full    20.83      12.50      16.67      14.58      27.08      16.67      12.50      27.08 
Quarter 25.00 120  14.58 117  16.67 100  18.75 129  35.42 131  20.83 125  12.50 100  31.25 115  124 
New     43.75 210  27.08 217  39.58 237  31.25 214  56.25 208  35.42 212  25.00 200  58.33 215  214



Here we see a slight boost on Quartermoon, with a significant boost on Newmoon. Again, the outcomes are very consistant. I won't go into the actual statistics, but it's all very well correlated, and can be assumed to be correct to within 5 or 10% (95% confidence it's within 10%).

Addition note: crafting on (for example) Darkday on a New moon gives a 311% increase in HQ in the experiment. If the percent influences are additive, the theoretical would be a 246% increase, whereas if they compound it would give a 297% increase. Other quick checks indicate that the two factors do indeed compound. So the overall percentage chance is Base * Day * Moon, not Base * (Day + Moon).

So, given these percentage factors based on environment condition, what sort of effect does skill have? Well, this is where I need more of the original data, especially at the low margins, since the high margins seem to be capped. A few guesstimates I've tried to put together don't give reliable results.

Edited, Tue Aug 31 18:48:57 2004 by Kinematics

Edited, Tue Aug 31 20:13:57 2004 by Kinematics

Edited, Tue Aug 31 20:16:05 2004 by Kinematics
#35 Aug 31 2004 at 8:44 PM Rating: Decent
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Additional thought regarding the moon percentage adjustments:

The fact that the new moon value is 214% to me implies an additional factor beyond the two under consideration. First because 2.14 is a peculiar adjustment factor, and second because SE has always been very conservative with bonus adjustments. I can't see a single bonus being given that would be higher than a factor of 2, and this one is about 10% higher than that.

The two other possible factors to consider (that I know of) are elemental influences (Mog home, elemental resistances), and direction facing. In the case of the direction, the experiment was always performed facing north, which corresponds to dark. Since we already see that synthing on Darkday significantly improves HQ odds, an additional 10% due to direction does seem within the bounds of possibility. As always, further testing is needed.
#36 Aug 31 2004 at 9:11 PM Rating: Decent
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I hope soemone hasn't already said this because I tried to read most of the posts but I notices that some crafts people say that they find the opposite to be true. As a non crafter I'm wondering if the HQ rate corrolates with Day and Moonphase based on the crystal you're using... What crystals are all these recipes and how does that relate to the days taht you find high success rates?
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#37 Aug 31 2004 at 10:04 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
While at work and bored... I ran some numbers, and yes, what has been posted here has Statistical Significance (Great Analysis by the way). Here is the results..

General Linear Model

Analysis of Variance for Yield, using Adjusted SS for Tests

Source-----DF----SeqSS-------AdjSS-------AdjMS------F-------P
Day---------7----0.161434----0.161434---0.023062----16.56--0.000
Moon--------2----0.205325----0.205325---0.102662----73.73--0.000
Error------14----0.019493----0.019493---0.001392
Total------23----0.386252

This only proves that there is indeed a difference between the Day and the Moon Phase you are crafting with. Though, it would take a tremendous ammount of effort to pitch in the factor of how many levels above the cap, since you would have to do the same experiment... at different craft levels, to really determine an equation.

Oh, and the data does not follow a normal distribution. Meaning is not a common known behaviour bases on the probabilitie tables.

Have a good day

EDIT: Trying to fix the table.... ><



you can use [ pre ] [ /pre ] tag for the table if you want
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#38 Aug 31 2004 at 10:46 PM Rating: Default
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Alright I set out today test this stuff, not prove anything, just test it in order to improve my HQ rate.

I am 59 woodworking and 49.3 smithing, so I decided tonight being the new moon to try some moderate HQ's

My two synths that I decided on were Bronze Spear and Light Crossbow.

Light Crossbow caps at 12 woodworking and 9 smithing.(Earth)
Bronze Spear caps at 18 woodworking and 9 smithing. (Wind)

So being full moon and that I cannot wait for Darksday, I chose the latter of synthing on the day that the crystal is weak against. I was only going to do 12 synths and I did not expect close to the 50% HQ rate that was expressed here. I would have been happy with 3 out of 12.

So I sat down and began Light Crossbows on Windsday about 5 mins ago. When I had finished 12 synths I ended up with.....
9 Light Crossbows, 1 Light Crossbows+1, and 2 broken synths where I lost all of the materials.
That is a horrible showing, while I did not expect picture perfect results, I expected a little better than that which was well....plain awful.

I am going to wait the 2 hours and try on Iceday Bronze Spears, but I can only expect the results to be worse as it is a higher cap.

Did I do something wrong or am I just plain unlucky?? I thought I would at least break even with the materials if this experiment failed but at this rate I'll lose 2k overall ;/.

Edit: Two Hours later I sat to do Bronze Spears only to realize that I was an idiot and Iceday came after Windsday and that it was currently Lightning Day. /Sigh. Might as well synth anyway.

My Results were 1 Hq and 11 Regular synths. Dunno what I'm doing wrong. One horribly failed experiment.

Edited, Tue Aug 31 23:47:19 2004 by TheConnoisseur

Edited, Wed Sep 1 01:37:06 2004 by TheConnoisseur
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#39 Sep 01 2004 at 2:06 AM Rating: Decent
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I thought this was already solved... Poor people not doing their own tests now everyone knows... I just LMAO at the person who posted that "day doesn't matter, moon doesn't matter". Obviously this person doesn't take into account all the variables. A summary for those that dont know:

1.) You craft with a crystal that has an element for example "wind" duh.

2.) The higher you are above the cap of the item the more chance you get for HQ; from my experience it usually is divided into 3 sections. 1-10 above cap very rare HQ, 10-20 1/10-1/8 HQ, 20-30 1/8-1/6 HQ, 40-50 1/6-1/4, 50-xx 1/4-1/2. I dont see much more than half HQ rate on items that I am synthing that are 60 below the level i am currently and more.

3.) The day you are crafting matters just like it does when you are casting an elemental spell. For better HQ you synth on lightday 100%, new moon 0% (this basically is lights day 100% btw).

I really dont think people realize what moon takes out or puts into a day. Consider a spectrum of elements and the moon the position you are in the spectrum. If you are at 100% then obviously this is the strongest point that element will reach. So if you craft a wind synth on ice day at 100% since wind is weak to ice wind will be weakest, if you craft wind on ice day 0% wind is not weakened (as much) and tightens the bell curve for HQ rate.

Light and dark are special cases as dark 100% makes things extremly hard to craft if you are not passed the level cap of the item, even if you are you will get more breaks but more HQ's as well. Dark 0% is just like light 100% w/ all the benefits of lightday (HQ rate up) but also the HQ rate up because the item is somewhat more difficult for the crafter above the cap of the item.

I think people need to take a step back and realize the fundamental mechanics of the game.

Also for those that want to know darksday 0% (new moon) is THE BEST day to craft for skillups hands down. Provided you are not using light crystals.

Venom Bolt Heads x6 in alchemy on any other day resulted in .1-.2 skillup in 12, on darksday new moon .5-.8 skillups ( i kid you not ).

When you get to a high level skill in anything you will beg for more skillups and more HQ's and the above is what I will always believe to be true... because thats exactly what it is... TRUE

Thanks for the post EurnTalon you helped a lot of people understand things through some numbers, but still I dont think people understand the spectrum of elements and more importantly how the moon effects the day and the resulting HQ rate.

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#40 Sep 01 2004 at 11:11 AM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
When I had finished 12 synths I ended up with.....
9 Light Crossbows, 1 Light Crossbows+1, and 2 broken synths where I lost all of the materials.


1 in 12. (47 lvs above cap)

Quote:
Two Hours later I sat to do Bronze Spears only to realize that I was an idiot and Iceday came after Windsday and that it was currently Lightning Day. /Sigh. Might as well synth anyway.

My Results were 1 Hq and 11 Regular synths. Dunno what I'm doing wrong. One horribly failed experiment.


Again, 1 in 12. (37 lvs above cap)


Edited, Wed Sep 1 12:17:18 2004 by Squeegee
#41 Sep 01 2004 at 11:32 AM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
thought this was already solved... Poor people not doing their own tests now everyone knows... I just LMAO at the person who posted that "day doesn't matter, moon doesn't matter". Obviously this person doesn't take into account all the variables. A summary for those that dont know:


From my data, you'll notice that Darksday could yield great (in yellow) and poor (in red) results. Windsday (WNG) and Lightning (WXG) gave great results and they are not directly realated to fire. This is why I craft whenever I want when my level is 50+ above the cap since HQ rate at this level is usually around 50%.

But after looking at Eruntalon's data, I am gonna try to HQ during new moon on darksday.


Edited, Wed Sep 1 12:38:52 2004 by Squeegee
#42 Sep 01 2004 at 11:44 AM Rating: Good
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Sorry to hear about your poor showing on HQs on what should have been some very favorable conditions.

Ultimately each individual synth has nothing to do with any onther synth. Even is you max out your chance at 50%, you still only have a 50% chance. My orginal numbers above are the result of 48 synths each day.

I had a similar run of bad luck yesterday when I went logging. Acheived about 50% HQ rate on all my Ash Logs, and ended up blowing up about 50% of my Arrowwod Logs. Go figure.


Kinematics:

Thanks for the excellent reanalysis of my original numbers. I will work on getting the rest of my numbers up here for you to dissect. Once that is done I would like to edit your information into my OP, with your permission and full credit of course. This helps me have a greater insight to results.


Pahadron:

Thanks for the additional information. While some of your information contradicts some of my results, I agree with a majority of your points. However I must point out that Lightsday has been absolutely horrible for my HQ.




Again, this is still a work in progress IMO, but the fundamentals are there. I am going to continue to test my results and post updates.

Please take my information for what it's worth. I don't guarantee that you will get X HQs on Y day/moon at Z level. These are just my results, on the first run, and my interpretaion of what they mean.
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#43 Sep 01 2004 at 12:36 PM Rating: Decent
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Eruntalon - No problem, feel free. :)

TheConnoisseur - You only did 12 synths each, so these numbers are extremely rough, but consider:

Light crossbow - 47/40 above cap. Influence of skill unknown, but close to the set used by Eruntalon, so we'll assume a baseline of 16.67% (2/12, using neutral day baseline). On a day strong to the crystal (x1.67) and on the new moon (x2), I'd estimate an average 5 HQ attempts out of 12. I suspect random adjustments can swing that up and down 50%. If you were on the low end of that, you'd be trying for perhaps 3.

What you got was 1 HQ, but also 2 failures. If you'll note my original hypothesis regarding how selection of HQ attempts are determined, it's possible that those were all three HQ attempts (maybe HQ2/3), but that you failed 2 of them. In general it would seem that there would be no particular reason for you to fail 2/12 on a synth where your skill is so far above the trivial unless the underlying difficulty had been adjusted.

Bronze spear - 41/40 above cap. Again baseline at 16.67%. Synth on a neutral day (x1), possibly during the new moon (not sure if new moon was still active at that point, will assume it was), for x2. Theoretical is 4/12. This one is sufficiently far from the theoretical that either you just got very unlucky (entirely possible with this small a sample size), there are additional, unconsidered factors (direction faced, moghouse element, etc), the new moon had passed, or a flaw in the calculated methodology.
#44 Sep 01 2004 at 12:50 PM Rating: Default
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All were facing north like the original poster.

This is my feeling on it though. I set out with reasonable higher craft skill than the skill cap in order to make a profit. Now, I could be wrong, but when you synth for HQ to sell, who wants to do 48 synths or more, I mean I did 24 and considered that was a lot. Only did that many because the materials were cheap. However, had I tried an iron synth and recieved the results I did, than I would have loss multiple thousands of gil. Either HQing is reserved for the extremely high or you not expect money from it. Could be that I was just unlucky...will post back when I decide to blow 14k more on a night of HQing........
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#45 Sep 01 2004 at 1:06 PM Rating: Decent
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I still suggest crafting/HQ is just like mostly anything in this game. Its a roll of the dice. The only time things are 100% are either yes or no situations, or a or b...or...right or left. What i mean is..

Thinking about Damage taken. As a Paladin, its something that im always looking at. Anyone will tell you that the more Defense you have, the less damage you take. This is because I believe the damage you taken is a random number generated. Ever notice you going from 305 defense to 560 defense, your still getting hit for about the same a few lower numbers, but very few spikes. Well this is because I feel that Your stats effects the highs and lows you get. It effects your rares, and your averages, like a percentile chart.

Looking at Agility, and evasion. Its different, but somewhat the same. Every time you evade, certain conditions have to be made. Its like a number is being generated by the mobs attack, and if its lower than your agility stat, you evade. Now i know there are parrys, evasions, shields...ect, but i think you know what i mean. In this situation, its a comparing thing. Its like a gamble, you both have numbers, lets see who gets the highest. Again, stats will alter its highs and lows, and how often your gonna get higher numbers, or how high your numbers are. Theres always that chance your gonna be beaten (Hit), no matter how low the mobs level.

So those are my point of views on that. So what does this have to do with crafting? Well...I believe Crafting is kind of like Agility and the defense example above.

When you go to craft, your level vs the Craft level is taken into consideration. The closer you are, the better chance you have to beat the synths "roll number", so to speak. its like when you craft, its a game. Your rolling, trying to top a certain point. The higher your craft skill, the better chance you'll have at making the high roll. You always have the chance at being 2 levels behind, getting a HQ, but its VERY unlikely.

Say your crafting silk cloth at 45(Trivials at 53), you can make a silk cloth at 45 rarely. Say the number you need to craft it is 53. Your average roll is gonna be within say...10. That means half the time, your gonna fail, half the time your gonna succeed. But the more skill you have, the more your average rolls are gonna adjust. Where your average rolls were usually 45-55, it might go to 46-56.

Thats how I look at it. HQ is like that also. You need to roll a high enough point to get an HQ. Say your making Green Ribbons. If you need to roll a 63 or higher to get the synth, and you need to roll an 80 to HQ it, then you know your gonna have to have alot of thigns go in your favor, or a higher level. In a simplier example, you have a 6 sided die to start off with. To synth something, you need a 3 or higher, 6 is to HQ. Now to go with this example, and to change the odds. Lets say your average is a 2. Because your average is a 2, lets say there are 5 more sides added to this die, all 5 are 2's. So now you have a better chance at getting a 2 over everything else, BUT, you can still hit any of these numbers at anytime. The more times you get a 3 or higher, the more 3's you get a 3 (the next highest number) instead of a 2. Soon your average number roll is a 3. You can still get a 2 or lower, or a 4 or higher...but...chances are it will be a 3. Soon, with the better chances you get, your gonna have alot more 6's than the rest. YOu can still get a 1..but chances are rare

Now I know all these numbers are abstract, and hard to follow, but you get my point. To Summarize:

The higher level you are, the better chance you will get an HQ. In "Rolling" terms, there are more chances you will get a higher number than the set synth number. As you level, your average number of a roll changes. The higher the level, the bigger number you roll. The harder the synth (level), the bigger number you must roll. This explains why you can sometimes fail a level 1 synth at lvl 60.

Things like days, moghancement, and gear effect your average the same way.

I know that was a long, drawn out...confusing post, but thats how i look at crafting. I think your data will back up my theory. Plus, when you think about the fact that this is an RPG, and all RPG's are based upon statistics, numbers, and chance "Dice Rolls", I think this game is no different

Thanks for your time. HOpefully you can see my point of view. Even if my theory is off, i think it holds SOME truth.
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#46 Sep 01 2004 at 1:41 PM Rating: Excellent
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Kailkun is very correct, it all ultimately boils down to a "dice roll." And the other influencing factors only alter the target number.

As I stated earlier each individual synth has no correlation to any other individual synth. Everyone has their philosophy (or should at least) when they go to synth HQ.

One synth is worthless when going for an HQ. I always synth a "stack" of materials, which generally ends up 12 total synths. It is these 12 synths that I use to determine my success each time. I've had times where I've gotten 1/12 when I was 50+ and I've had times when I've gone 8/12. I still say that 50% is the maximum CHANCE. I had X chance of synthing my HQs. If i get it, I had a good day, if I don't it was a bad day. I never do 48 synths in a sitting, except when I was tracking these numbers.

But, I would rather synth at a time that I have a 50% CHANCE of getting HQ, rather than 8%. I just decided to systematically track my results, rather than work with false assumptions (ex. getting 70% and saying OMG!!!! WAXING GIBBOUS IS THE BEST DAY!!!).

On another note, I don't remember ever mentioning that I was facing North, but rather I said I was facing the same direction every time. Now that I think about though, I was always facing the Ronfaure Vendor in South San d'Oria. Why? Because this is the closest vendor to the Delivery Box and AH, if San d'Oria isn't in first. And yes, I dumped all my NQs to an NPC. (EDIT: This turns out to be north, btw^^)

HQ is one way to make money in crafting. But, even with a formula, it is not a get rich quick way of making money. Making money in crafting relies on the fundamentals of any business, and the risks involved.

Edited, Wed Sep 1 14:45:44 2004 by Eruntalon
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#47 Sep 01 2004 at 1:51 PM Rating: Decent
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Eruntalon, first let me say tahnk you very much for doing this test. I'm part of a crafting LS on my server and we have been dissecting your results since seeing it. I was hoping to ask you for a copy of your original spread sheet so that we can also figure out the break percentages when going for the HQ's. My email is averno[at]gmail.com, please email me it if you can. Again, thanks for the hard work. :)
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#48 Sep 01 2004 at 2:59 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
HQ is one way to make money in crafting. But, even with a formula, it is not a get rich quick way of making money. Making money in crafting relies on the fundamentals of any business, and the risks involved.


Excellent point that I think many people miss. HQing can earn you money. The thing is though, HQ's arent usually a huge difference form the regular item. Everyone is looking for something they can buy the items, and make profit. The problem is though, most of the time its very small profit, slow selling, or just too risky or high level. Instead, I suggest this.

Use your Level craft for your farming. For an example, Im a level 60 Clothcrafter. I can go through Giddeus and take the necklaces and in an hour i can get about 15-20 Stacks of grass thread from HQ's. On my server, grass thread is about 1.2k a stack. So 15 stacks is 18k. The problem is...have fun trying to sell that ^_^.

So I suggest something else. Many epople do this for Wool cloth. They farm the Sheep to make wool cloth. A Nice profit can be made, although it takes a while. Things like this will help. Farming Crawlers, and Making it into cloths will net you a better Profit. 3 stacks of silk thread go for 33k on my server, a stack of silk cloth goes for 40k. See the difference? It aids my farming.

If you can HQ something that is bought farely decently, then farm the items for the HQ, and start crafting. Even if you dont get the HQ, your gonna profit. Dont listen to anyone who says "yea, but you could have taken that time to farm something else and made more, blah blah blah". If your a crafter at heart, you wanna make your money off crafting, and thats it. The end.

Think about this, an alchemist can probally HQ silent oil later levels, and if they can farm the items and HQ, they can almost double their usual profits. The same could be said for almost any craft.

Thats my 2 cents on the matter. People should stop trying to HQ desynth's, and find the right recepie to HQ for profit, because usually it doesnt exist, its hard to sell the stuff, or as word gets out, the prices drop. ::nods:: Get to farming and use your craft as a support.
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#49 Sep 01 2004 at 3:06 PM Rating: Good
/cheer

Someone finally posts proof instead of just stating their gut instincts! Having taken lots of time to organize my own guid and ensure that the things said in it are in fact true and pointing out the things that noone can prove and stating that they are theory... I must say nice work!

Now I think I might just go back tomy synthing with soem new plans to maximize efficency in my HQ :)
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#50 Sep 01 2004 at 3:50 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
On another note, I don't remember ever mentioning that I was facing North, but rather I said I was facing the same direction every time.


I'm sorry, for some reason I got it in my head that you said you always faced your mog in your mog house, and that that was north. Might have confused it with another of the posts. Serendipity that it was north anyway, though :)

Kailkun - What you describe is pretty much my first hypothesis on how HQs are determined. I still lean more towards my second hypothesis, but don't have enough data to really validate it.



A comment on my earlier further analysis regarding the 200%+ value: Rethinking the math behind it, this doesn't actually matter. The influence factor is relative to the other moon phases and thus any outside factors would cancel out. Thus it's entirely possible that there is no third factor outside of skill level. Still needs testing, though :)
#51 Sep 01 2004 at 6:16 PM Rating: Decent
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Summing up:
Higher HQs on New Moons, Darkday, Day your crystal is weak too.
Especially if you are above the Cap Level


Ok now this is based on nothing at all, but:
Since you get better skill ups if you are below the cap then it would logically follow that Skill Up is the opposite of HQ. Thus getting better skill ups on Full Moons, Lightday, Day your crystal is string too.

However this is very hard to test as well as the HQs because you only stay at one skill level for about 10-15 synths. Oh well, nice work.
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