DaVinci, how did you manage to read in Moon Phases for the synths where he didn't mention the moon phase? o.O
The Moon Phases happen in a chronological order starting from New Moon, Waxing Crescent, First Quarter, Waxing Gibbous, Full Moon, Waning Gibbous, Last Quarter, Waning Crescent, then back to New Moon again. At Level 30 he noted it was Full Moon, hence the only possible Moon Phase before Full Moon was Waxing Gibbous.
Also, since the moon phase (specifically full moon) plays such a huge role in success and skilling up in comparison to direction I don't think it's possible to compare the effects of the two factors without some form of analysis to separate them out. We don't even know what days he did this on.
I was aware that Eruntalon did not list the Days that he crafted on. Have you read Eruntalon's experiment on HQ Mystery Thread Solved?
. I'm quite sure one of the factor not mentioned was crafting on what day with what crystal/Moon Phase. The Day/Crystal was rather a passive knowledge to my reply (sorry)
Regarding the form of analysis to separate success and skill ups, the Succes Rate is mentioned in Eruntalon's HQ Thread. The Skill up rate is in the process in this thread.
As for your conclusion that the effect of direction results in an average chance for skill up disproving the theory, I would almost say it does the opposite, because if you look carefully he's getting this average skill up when he's 2 levels away from the cap. I think the general consensus is that when you're closer to the level cap your skill ups drop off. Although, this is also a hypothesis.
I did not state anything regarding the effect of direction that results in an average chance for skill up. But I did disagree with the Direction Facing Theory, until 100 % proven otherwise.
The Tradeskill's skill up system somehow follows within the equation path of a parabola. In the parabola when x = 0 is the lowest/highest peak. One or two, or five tradeskill levels more or less than the skill cap follows the path of skill rate increase/decrease.
As for the moon phase theory, I had wondered if something like that was possible, but then I noticed that the number of days duration of the moon phases were unequal, which lead me to discard that idea.The crescent and gibbous moons are 13-14 days long compared to the 7 days for full / new / quarter moons. It just doesn't feel right that they'd make it unequal if it was more than just a % factor.
I was not aware of the time/days for each Moon Phase cycle. Perhaps the reason to this inequality is to create a balance towards crafting and any other events regarding elements. However, it would be nice to see Full Moon/New moon lasting for 17 full days. Edited, Fri Dec 3 19:43:44 2004 by DaVinci