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Please tell me how to destroy your marketing niche.Follow

#1 Feb 28 2007 at 11:53 AM Rating: Excellent
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I'm sorry, but I keep seeing threads that start with:

"How can I make money crafting?"
"What makes good money in CraftX?"
"What can I farm for really good money?"
"etc, etc"

Let's assume, for a moment, that I've found a nice little niche market...say, some mob in some out of the way spot, who's unstackable drop can be synthed in the field to be some other item, which stacked 12 deep sells for 20-40 grand.

Costs you a bit of time and a small amount of money (-1/-2 k per stack generaly) to make, and sells 2-4 per day (unless someone's on a skillup kick, in which case you can go through a dozen stacks in a day), and nets anywhere from 40k to 160k (avg being about 60k) a day.

One day's farming/synthing gives you enough (skillup binges not withstanding) to sell for 3-4 days maintaining a steady income.

Given the kinds of foods certain high-level jobs use, 60k/day is enough to keep yourself fed for a few hours, and put a little in the "bank" for that "really neat epeen upgrade" you've been looking at.

Then, someone asks how they can make money, and you post that mob/synth/gil-per-day total on a crafting forum, and all of a sudden, a few hundred stacks of whatever it is show up on the AH.

Prices plumet, your steady income is gone, and eventually the stuff climbs back up from 500/stack (slightly below cost to make not counting time) to around 10k/stack.

Shortly there-after, those people are back on the trade forums, asking for another handout, and wondering why all these rude and meanie-weanie people won't help them.

People constantly ask on these forums "How do you make your money?" when really, what they are asking you to do is to destroy that market...even if they don't realize it.

Most markets, especially unregulated ones, are based on supply and demand...if there is more supply than demand, and quality is identical, then prices go down...if there is more demand than supply, and quality is identical, then prices will go up until prices reach a point where competician is attracted, where upon supply increases bringing prices down.

External control mechanisms include a government that "forces" certain prices, and monopolies that will prevent others from selling "thier" products.

Since in FFXI we can't go shoot someone on the streets of Jeuno, or toss a bomb into their Rent-a-Room to stop them from crafting in an area, to maintain a monopoly you have to either absolutely control a key component, or to put the finished goods up for a price -no- honest dealer can match, driving them out of business.

This is how RMT normally does it, but they aren't the only ones to "kill" a money-maker...in this game, far more important than a SH+1, is the gil to buy it.

For those who don't buy their gil, they -must- have some other way to get it...for many, that's BCNMs, but if you don't have "the right job/gear" don't bother, your seals are "worthless" because no one will go with you.

For those people, its farming and crafting...since that doesn't need 2-5 other people of the exactly correct setup and piles of seals normally only found on career soloists.

When you post on the trade forums, about how this "sells 2-3 per day" item (be it a single item dropped or something crafted) can bring in 50k/sale, you've just destroyed that market.

It only sells for 50k/each because only a few go up each day...if it's something anyone with a L30 job could concieveably get with an under60 craft, then the day after you post it, a hundred will be up on the AH.

What's more, the AH isn't "first listed, first sold" it's "cheapest list goes first"...so if you want -your- 2-3 to sell, you need to put them up for less than everyone else.

So, the more are up at any one time, the lower you ask to insure yours goes out first.

Since everyone knows this, people don't bid "history+1" blindly (unless there is a desperate need for "the last one on the shelf"), instead, they bid lower, and work their way up to the sale, lowering the history, and showing people what asking price -they- have to undercut the next time.

Now, if the item sells 10 every 2 hours (since the history only shows 10 items, that's all you can tell), having 100+ items up isn't a big deal, you know yours will go out soon enough, so you don't massively undercut.

But when there are only 2-3 sales/day, and 100+ items, knowing that its "cheapest in, first out", and further knowing that everyone -else- knows that, most people will start -massively- underbidding, causing prices to crash with a horrible shattering sound.

The only way to keep your money-makers intact, is to treat them like the old guilds used to treat thier secrets...as exactly that.

"Three people can keep a secret only when two of them are dead."

Trade secrets were passed down from Master to Apprentice, and no one "outside" was let in on those secrets...blabber-mouths wound up in a lot of trouble, or dead.

If you -really- want to make money, and not just "be given a handout" then go to the Auction House, and look for what sells quickly...then look to see which of those you can find/make reasonably.

Put small quantities of a -couple- of those items up (so as to not make the established crafters/farmers worried enough about you to force prices down to drive you out) and see how it goes.

When you have a few decent money makers, look into occasional "bonus" items for "extra" gil...or get in the habit of saving your money to build up to whatever item you are looking for.

A lot of people still see high levels of crafting as a way to make millions of gil per synth, and expect to make a dozen such synths each day...it doesn't work like that anymore.

The reason people paid millions of gil per synth was, plain and simply put, there were so few people synthing that item that they could charge whatever they wanted.

Some cases, the items -in- those synths were really hard to get (Venomous Claw, Damascus Ingot, etc) and while the synth itself wasn't that hard, the ingredients went for millions.

In this "Barely acceptable means 99.999% of the Best Possible" world, HQ items (requiring massive luck, super high skill, or both) still cost millions...but the NQ items are tossed on the trash pile, price wise, because so many people are making them trying for that mega-cash result, that the "failures" are glutting the market.

Thus, power-crafting (often with bought gil, but in many cases a lucky BCNM or NM drop also supplies the money) to get CraftX up to where you can start (hopefully) HQ'ing "Money-Making Synth Y" achieves nothing but throwing the market on skillup goods into a tizzy.

If you -really- want to make steady income, check the AH's (even the smaller ones are good, if you stick to what the guilds in those areas require) and find markets of things the higher level crafters don't want to waste time making for themselves.

(or in some cases, -can't- make for themselves, because they can't us an "Iron Ingot +1" which they get half the time because the synth -they- want to do only accepts a normal ingot...and yes, I know there's no such synth as a +1 ingot, I'm making an example)

Take -that- synth, and find a way to make it cost-effectively, and put a -few- up at a time.

The key to making money in FFXI is (buying gil or getting stupidly lucky aside) =PATIENCE=.

This isn't WoW, the game isn't structured for and has in fact evolved for much of it's life away from "casual gaming"...if you play FFXI, you play for a "long haul" or you play one of the solo jobs (the later of which is becoming something of a trend, actually).

Find a few sources of money, spread your investements (of time, gil, etc) out, and pull in steady, reliable income...if you need 100k/half-hour for food, and also want gear costing 10M gil/piece, then you need to get into one of the big, money making linkshells that only does billion-gil items and serve your "slave labor" time until you can start getting a slice of the pie.

Otherwise, either buy gil, or do your <expletive removed> homework and find your own money makers...if you must have a billion gil by noon tomorrow or you will never see your moogle again...well, report the moogle-nappers to the STFU and hope they can help.

But please stop coming here and saying "Please, they said they would kill my moogle if I couldn't come up with a billion gil...please, please, tell me your crafting secrets so I too can make the obscene fortunes needed to look like all the other epeens on the /seacom list."

Honestly, it's not -that- hard to look for what is selling, heck, there's even a really cool site that shows the main auction house for each server, that you can use to do your research.

Final Fantasy XI Auction House Online

Combine that with some reading of various crafting guides, monster databases, and a bit of brain-sweat, and you can find all the money sources you need...hopefully w/o killing everyone elses money sources.


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#2 Feb 28 2007 at 12:03 PM Rating: Good
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I think ffxiah.com makes things too easy for people.
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#3 Feb 28 2007 at 12:12 PM Rating: Good
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Quote:
I think ffxiah.com makes things too easy for people.


Agreed.
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#4 Feb 28 2007 at 12:45 PM Rating: Good
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I agree that ffxiah.com takes all the calculation work out of deciding what is profitable or not.

I wouldn't be surprised if the ffxiah.com website made you pay for this service eventually.
#6 Feb 28 2007 at 2:04 PM Rating: Decent
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Very good post, rate up.

Bookmarked for all those stupid XYZ questions =)
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#7 Feb 28 2007 at 2:29 PM Rating: Decent
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well, on the other side, i dont think many people expect to need to become real life entrepreneurs to succeed in crafting in a video game. Market research, break-even and profit rate, price positioning..these are all rl business skills, and not everyone has the entreprenurial mindset. That's why you get those posts.

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#8 Feb 28 2007 at 4:13 PM Rating: Good
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/clap

Unfortunately, the people the OP is talking about will most likely over look this and skip to the threads that look like they give info on easy money.

The internet has always been a source for all kinds of information. Unfortunately, the people who are too stupid/lazy to find a way to make gil
are smart enough to look it up on the internet.

Oh the irony...
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#9 Feb 28 2007 at 4:55 PM Rating: Decent
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I kind of hate the ffxiah.com recipe feature. People are lazy - and putting all the facts in front of them has made it easier for lazy people to find all the niche markets.
#10 Feb 28 2007 at 4:57 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
Unfortunately, the people the OP is talking about will most likely over look this and skip to the threads that look like they give info on easy money.


No worries there, next time a thread like that appears, we'll make sure they see this post.
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#11 Feb 28 2007 at 6:12 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
I agree that ffxiah.com takes all the calculation work out of deciding what is profitable or not.

I wouldn't be surprised if the ffxiah.com website made you pay for this service eventually.


originally they were going to charge for this, not sure why they changed their minds
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#12 Mar 01 2007 at 1:51 PM Rating: Good
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I have a couple of niche synths that I don't really tell anyone about. They're the kind of thing that a lot of people can't do because they require not only mid-high level main craft skill, but 'above average' subcraft skill. Nevertheless, there are a few people on my server who are notorious for glomming on to good niche synths and driving them into the ground simply because they can. I used to share my crafting tips; I don't anymore.

The nice thing about leveling a 'lowbie' job (42 BST atm) is that I'm spending next to nothing in the leveling process (low consumable cost, gear flipped to AH once it's outdated). I'm used to leveling jobs like RNG and NIN, where gil doesn't sit in your coffers for very long. As a result of my current trend towards, "Spend little because it hurts to earn it back," my gil reserves are slowly on the rise.

Very slowly.

If I had to fund a job that was leveling quickly and had some pricey items to make it the way I want it, I'd be screwed. I'd be spending more time than I want to just trying to keep up with the cost of leveling my job, and that tends to ruin the game.

As a result, when I come across an under-acknowledged niche synth that gives me an occasional boost from time to time without having to spend hours/week making it happen, I'm all over it (and I'm doing my best to keep my mouth shut about it).

It's nothing personal; I don't withold information to be a jerk. I wish everyone who plays success and enjoyment, but they won't do it at my expense if I can help it.
#13 Mar 02 2007 at 2:27 AM Rating: Decent
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Why not use these questions to your advantage? Point them in the direction of the farm-ables/consumables that you yourself buy... with any luck they'll crash those markets and cut your costs in half. Or (if you're too nice to do that to your fellow AH sharks) just point them in the direction of any items you would buy, except that they're rarely available.
#14 Mar 02 2007 at 3:21 AM Rating: Good
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I too used to be concerned about other non-RMT crafters flooding the markets with the same things I am making, or farming the same things I am farming. But after watching those same people in Jeuno being spoon fed information on what to farm or how to synth, and then seeing them complain about that taking up too much time or being too tedious, I stopped being concerned about it.

It is my opinion, based on watching reactions of people who ask for easy ways to make gil, that those whose who ask how to make gil will in most cases not follow through with suggestions given to them. If I had to guess, I'd think they are more likely to go out and buy gil instead of earning it in-game. The ffxiah.com site gives you easy access to recipes and predicted revenue, but it stil requires crafting which *a lot* of players don't want to bother with. They'd rather buy gil or beg friends for it instead of work in-game for it.

And when they buy gil, they contribute to a messed up economy, just as they would if they invaded your special niche and forced you to stop selling due to their low prices. It seems like a no-win situation. :-)

Edited, Mar 2nd 2007 6:24am by goobysmootcher
#15 Mar 02 2007 at 8:04 AM Rating: Excellent
Gonzi wrote:
Quote:
I think ffxiah.com makes things too easy for people.

Agreed.

Honestly, if you really are serious about making money with crafting, you don't trust the calculated results of FFXIAH for one dime, do you? While the calculated possible 'profit' is a nice feature of the site, more often than not it is using the wrong data to start with, rendering the whole idea virtually worthless.

Lets just take an extreme example (for Hades server): Tsurara. Simple synth, only requirsg Ice Crystals, Rock Salt and Distilled Water. NQ synth is listed as a huge loss (517 gil needed to make, 404 gil selling price on Jeuno AH: calculated loss 113 gil or 22%). However, the calculation is based upon the selling price of rock salt and distilled water on Jeuno AH (because some ******* put a stack of distilled water up for 2K and another ******* actually bought it for that price). Anyone can get the same products in virtually every town for a fraction of the price (about 10 gil each). So, reality: cost to make the Tsurara is not 517 gil, but 199 gil, turning it into a 103% profit synth.

Now I admit you won't get rich from making tsurara, but the very same thing is happening for high(er) ticket items. FFXIAH never uses NPC vendor prices, but always uses its own internal database of AH selling history (technically it would be too difficult to take NPC vendor prices into account, so I understand why the programmers of that app did it the way they do).

Another mistake FFXIAH has is to use the price of singles from stackable products in their calculations instead of 1/12 or 1/99 of a stack. For instance, if you look at the calculation for Brain Stew (again, this is for Hades server), you find out that FFXIAH calculates this as a profit synth (20% profit selling for 16K with cost to make about 13K). However this calculation is based on the selling price of singles of the most expensive ingredient (King Truffle at about 10K a piece if bought single). Unfortunately, singles are almost never available but stacks of King Truffle are, only they sell for 170K (14K a piece, making the entire synth a loss instead of a profit).

A final (terrible) mistake FFXIAH has, is to not take into account the price of items that have no selling history on Jeuno AH. Example: the high mana wand is listed on FFXIAH (Hades) as a high profit synth (2600% profit!!!) simply because the main ingredient (Magicked Chessnut Lumber) has never been sold on AH and is put at a value of 0 gil for the calculation.

Don't get me wrong, I love FFXIAH and admire the effort the makers have put into it. But personally I only use it to see (from work) if my Jeuno mule has sold anything and to check on AH availability, selling price and selling frequency. Using FFXIAH as a trusted source to calculate your profit synths to me seems the best way to go bankrupt in a very short time.
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#16 Mar 02 2007 at 11:42 AM Rating: Good
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I use FFXIAH so that when someone asks one of these 'how do I make money' questions I search for someone I hate and tell them to make what they're selling.

More seriously though, with whatever flaws it has FFXIAH has made it much harder to get a big profit synth and protect it. Crafting is becoming a lot like various other forms of raising gil in that time in = money out, with the amount you get out mostly dependant on how much time you're putting in.
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#17 Mar 02 2007 at 12:03 PM Rating: Good
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tordall wrote:
More seriously though, with whatever flaws it has FFXIAH has made it much harder to get a big profit synth and protect it. Crafting is becoming a lot like various other forms of raising gil in that time in = money out, with the amount you get out mostly dependant on how much time you're putting in.
That's a good point. Before ffxiah, it was much more difficult to see what your competitors were doing. Now? I just look up their names and I can pretty much see everything they're doing. I can see what they're selling, what ingredients they're buying and everything. Of course, they can do the same to me, so it really is difficult to protect one synth. Rather, it's more important than ever to diversify.
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#18 Mar 02 2007 at 7:07 PM Rating: Decent
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FFXIAH is the reason I use multiple mules to sell things. You can be a tricky little thing with it: most people will only know one of your aliases, instead of all of them.
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#19 Mar 03 2007 at 9:19 PM Rating: Good
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Demetres the charming I agree fully. And I have three more things to add.

FFXI.com does list ratios in their synths but there are three more drawbacks that I find amusing that people partake in. These are mainly personal mistakes and not the fault of ffxiah but are there nonetheless.

First: Crafting can be variable. The website only shows what averages will hold out to. Over time they will be met but if it says "150% profit" and you have a bad streak of luck you may be at -300% loss.

Second: the prices on ffxiah.com go by overall hisstory. If the total hisstory of the average price is 550k it may look like profit. But if the item hasnt sold much lately it may noww be worth only 150k and be 100k loss per.

Finally, and this builds on the second point: People see XYZ Item on ffxi ah and see "heeeey that's 1,000% profit Imma go make some. Then they go and buy the materials and finally get that oh so prized item and take it to the auction house. Then theey realise... oh sh*t this item doesn't sell. There's no demand for it and the last 10 of them have taken 9 months to sell.

Yes folks I have noticed this lately. Items that have no value are being made. The history of sales is skewered because the last sales were three months ago. The actual price today is much much lower. People don't want these things yet ffxi.ah.com shows "profit profit profit" so they get made then never sell.

It's actually funny when I see 4 of something on sale at once that there were none of for two or three full monthss suddenly pop up. Every time I see it I know why its there, and what the culprit is.

And I chuckle to myself knowing that I do my homework. I refuse to use ffxiah.com not because I don't want to, but because I don't trust it. I have always done my own research, and it has worked for me. That has always held true and always will.

And just to prove my last point check this out on the asura server. Royal bed has a total sales history of 14 sold in the entire server hisstory in 3 or more years. There were probably never any up reliably because they have no demand..... not really. Now today there are nort one but TWO up. The profit margin on the item is listed at 4 mil plus on thee respective crafting list.

Notice how the history uses the average of all the sales. Now notice that the price started way high and has since crashed.... inaccurate. WAAAAY inaccurate. Yet two are up.


One mor eexample. Check out the cursed haidate -1 a little down on this page. The crafters section puts thiss piece at a hefty 63 million profit per. But there were only 3 ever sold. One for 150 mil at the absolute peak of inflation, one for 65 mil, and the recent one at 500k. If you went by the crafter page only you couldd crank these out hoping for a quick 50 mil profit only to find its not worth NEARLY that.

With a curssed -1 piece you would be lucky because it would sell. Something like a royal bed or the other trash I see popping up you won't be so lucky.

People can have their fun with ffxiah.com. I'll do it my way. Always have, always will. I know it works. Thats good enough for me.

Edited, Mar 4th 2007 12:30am by Melphina
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#20 Mar 05 2007 at 5:51 AM Rating: Good
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Now I understand why I saw coin cookies on ah...hehe.

I really oughta visit forums more, I didn't even know ffxiah had the crafters page thingy up. I agree that it's fairly useless, but whatever works.

Good luck selling them coin cookies :D
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#21 Mar 05 2007 at 6:46 AM Rating: Decent
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This should be re-titled to something misleading to attract people interested in fast gil and stickied. Rate up!

Wow, holy ****. FFXIah.com now shows Vendor prices. Be afraid!

Edited, Mar 5th 2007 10:05am by SFChakan
#22 Mar 05 2007 at 2:20 PM Rating: Decent
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Vendor prices have been available here and at other FFXI-related sites for quite some time. Chances are if someone knows about and uses ffxiah.com, they also use other FFXI sites for information. I don't see adding the vendor prices to ffxi's pages as being harmful in anyway. It just saves people the extra step of looking elsewhere for the vendor prices. There will always be a lot of people who pay top dollar at the AH for things they can get cheaply at a vendor. Those folks just don't mind wasting their gil.
#23 Mar 05 2007 at 2:35 PM Rating: Default
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No sorry your wrong.
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#24 Mar 09 2007 at 2:12 AM Rating: Decent
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no no No No NO.

If they do that. Then the market will surely CRASH.

Part of the market is being able to outsmart it and the competitors.

You can get the information online through the sites doing some research, its not hard. But if you put up all the keys in box showing the EXACT Profit margins, then everyone flocks to it and start unravelling the foundations of the Economy.

Its already happening even if some us notice the FFAH site is sometimes off.

It is he purpose of this site that has made things both easier and harder because people have things just handed to them with info which has been the reason for the decay of the Server Economy.

The Website still is proving a hinderince to legit and smart marketers but granted, we still got some advantage being that the website doesn't take note of other factors to what IS IT that makes a PROFIT.

I'm not going to list them because some of it was already talked about. But I hope to god they dont make it any MORE EASIER. Otherwise every player will be stuck trying to sell the sames for the very same value.
#25 Mar 09 2007 at 12:26 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
It is he purpose of this site that has made things both easier and harder because people have things just handed to them with info which has been the reason for the decay of the Server Economy.


But the profit margin info that is handed to them is fairly bogus (I can't think of a better word). As was previously mentioned in this thread, the prices they use for recipe ingredients are for single items, not stacks, and they don't take into consideration when the item last sold or how often it sells for.

If a lazy player wants to take the "misleading" info, not do any actual research, and try to synth and sell things based on the financial information provided by ffxiah.com, more power to them. I think it will be a great learning experience for them since most likely they will be losing gil due to not doing enough research. Sometimes just for kicks I will look at what ffxiah says I will make from doing whatever current synth I am working on, and every single time they have been so incredibly far off in their calculations. I'm not saying that to "bad mouth" their site... it's just the way they do their math.

Now if there is a low-level synth (around level 20 or under) that has a high consumption rate, has ingredients that can be purchased at any npc, and that brings in a lot of gil even after expenses are deducted, then putting that information out there in simplied format *might* encourage the lazy players to actually do some synthing work. But there really isn't any reason whatsoever to be concerned about that happening. If there is a synth out there that has a decent profit, sells quickly, and can be synthed easily, RMT already controls it.

Quote:
The Website still is proving a hinderince to legit and smart marketers but granted, we still got some advantage being that the website doesn't take note of other factors to what IS IT that makes a PROFIT.


I think it is providing a benefit to smart marketers. If I am a player who doesn't want to think, I am going to go to ffxiah.com, look at the recipe info they give me, buy the ingredients, sell them, and wonder why I am losing gil. The smart synthers know the info at ffxiah is not really representative of the gil you might make from synthing, and thus they won't rely on it. Smart synthers also know how to farm or grow many of their needed ingredients. It's the smart synthers that give you competition, not the lazy ones who don't do the necessary research before trying to synth and sell.
#26 Mar 10 2007 at 3:54 PM Rating: Decent
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Of course, the other thing FFXIAH doesn't take into account is AH's other than Jueno. If you're doing smithing & GS work, there's really no need to sell any where but Bastok for a lot of it (except for HQ weapons and the like), and the prices on a lot of that are much different.
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