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Lucky/Unlucky on new rollsFollow

#1 Jun 25 2010 at 3:29 PM Rating: Good
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From testing on Wiki, looks like the lucky/unlucky numbers don't follow the formula of the previous 20 rolls, where the unlucky was always lucky+4.

Caster's is estimated to be:
1	2% (Lowest) 
2 	18% (Lucky) 
3	5% 
4	6% 
5	8% 
6	10% 
7 	5% (Unlucky) 
8	11% 
9	12% 
10	13% 
11	20%


Two interesting things...
1) The unlucky isn't lucky+4, meaning it's something we have to pay attention to instead of using common COR wisdom.

2) A roll of 1 is actually the lowest buff, which is unusual. Ones are usually bad rolls, but not as bad as the unlucky.

Bolter's is also possibly unusual. Wiki claims lucky/unlucky are 3/9, but I haven't seen much testing.
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#2 Jun 25 2010 at 3:55 PM Rating: Good
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Anza wrote:
Caster's is estimated to be:
1	2% (Lowest) 
2 	18% (Lucky) 
3	5% 
4	6% 
5	8% 
6	10% 
7 	5% (Unlucky) 
8	11% 
9	12% 
10	13% 
11	20%


And double posting to think about roll strategy implications here...

Obviously Double Up off 1,3,4,5.

6 is an interesting one. It's not bad odds 2/3 to get a better number (5/6 if you have Snake Eye ready to double-up off an unlucky 7). And there's that tempting XI +5min duration bonus now.

7 is also a really interesting one. Pretty garbage roll, and still 2/3 odds to get a better result. And again, the XI bonus makes the gambler in me WANT to gamble.

One thing I take from all of this is that Fold is looking stronger than it did a week ago, because the incentive to take a risk is higher with that bonus duration. I'm glad I was dragging my feet on Winning Streak merits vs. more than 1/5 into Fold. I've semi-retired my COR so finishing those merits isn't my highest priority... but now it's an easy choice for me to pair 5/5 Snake Eye and 1/5 Loaded Deck with 4/5 Fold. I was leaning toward going 4/5 Winning Streak before the update. Good thing I waited.

Edited, Jun 25th 2010 5:57pm by Anza
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#3 Jun 25 2010 at 5:11 PM Rating: Decent
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These rolls have nob job boost do they?
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#4 Jun 25 2010 at 5:40 PM Rating: Good
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Alobont wrote:
These rolls have nob job boost do they?


I guess you could say that COR is their job boost, and since you'll always have a COR in the party using them you would never NOT have the job boost.
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#5 Jun 25 2010 at 6:25 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
I guess you could say that COR is their job boost, and since you'll always have a COR in the party using them you would never NOT have the job boost.


OK if no job boost, then does AF2 hat have any effect?
And is there actually a speed boost with different rolls on bolters?
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#6 Jun 25 2010 at 7:25 PM Rating: Decent
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Are those numbers confirmed? Unlucky roll on everything else has been 4 over the lucky number. Not saying it hasn't happened, but it seems odd for SE to change the formula.
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#7 Jun 25 2010 at 8:29 PM Rating: Good
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Dartagnann wrote:

Quote:
I guess you could say that COR is their job boost, and since you'll always have a COR in the party using them you would never NOT have the job boost.


OK if no job boost, then does AF2 hat have any effect?
And is there actually a speed boost with different rolls on bolters?


1) AF2 hat doesn't have any effect on Corsair's Roll, so there is precedent in AF2 hat doing nothing for a particular roll. If we're assuming that COR is the associated job to the new rolls (I think this is probably a safe assumption), the Tricorne shouldn't have any affect.

2) Keep in mind I haven't personally tested either roll, but from people who are playing around with it they claim there are different speeds with different rolls on Bolter's. Bolter's is likely harder to test to get true numbers, but you could probably get a close enough baseline to at least tell worse/same/better than other players with either:
a) A different number Bolter's Roll
b) The 5 different levels of Quickening from the Swift Shoes super Kupower
c) Various movement speed gear (many 12% pieces, 8% ASA legs, 25% NIN AF feet)
d) Other movement buffs (Mazurkas, Spectral Jig)

The best thing about Bolter's is that it does seem from reports to stack with movement speed gear (including Quickening).

iniadelphinae wrote:
Are those numbers confirmed? Unlucky roll on everything else has been 4 over the lucky number. Not saying it hasn't happened, but it seems odd for SE to change the formula.


Again, I can't personally confirm anything. But the numbers on Wiki seem too specific to be just pulled from out of nowhere. It does seem odd, and that's what prompted me to make the topic to begin with. But doesn't seem completely unrealistic to think that SE would deviate from the standard with these new rolls, which are already a bit odd in that they don't neatly map to the 20 jobs.
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#8 Jun 25 2010 at 8:45 PM Rating: Default
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Anza wrote:
Anza wrote:
Caster's is estimated to be:
1	2% (Lowest) 
2 	18% (Lucky) 
3	5% 
4	6% 
5	8% 
6	10% 
7 	5% (Unlucky) 
8	11% 
9	12% 
10	13% 
11	20%


And double posting to think about roll strategy implications here...

Obviously Double Up off 1,3,4,5.

6 is an interesting one. It's not bad odds 2/3 to get a better number (5/6 if you have Snake Eye ready to double-up off an unlucky 7). And there's that tempting XI +5min duration bonus now.

7 is also a really interesting one. Pretty garbage roll, and still 2/3 odds to get a better result. And again, the XI bonus makes the gambler in me WANT to gamble.

One thing I take from all of this is that Fold is looking stronger than it did a week ago, because the incentive to take a risk is higher with that bonus duration. I'm glad I was dragging my feet on Winning Streak merits vs. more than 1/5 into Fold. I've semi-retired my COR so finishing those merits isn't my highest priority... but now it's an easy choice for me to pair 5/5 Snake Eye and 1/5 Loaded Deck with 4/5 Fold. I was leaning toward going 4/5 Winning Streak before the update. Good thing I waited.

Edited, Jun 25th 2010 5:57pm by Anza


6 and 7 are double ups, even without the 11 duration bonus and even if you lost the roll for 5 minutes on bust (which you don't, just 1 minute).
#9 Jun 25 2010 at 10:35 PM Rating: Decent
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By the numbers, you should only stay on II or VIII+.

Average expected result is Fast Cast+12.77%.
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#10 Jun 26 2010 at 12:39 AM Rating: Good
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By the way, confirmed Mazurka+Bolter's works.

Chocobo Mazurka + XI Bolter's + w.legs is like Flee with Dusk gear.
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#11 Jun 26 2010 at 3:11 AM Rating: Good
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iniadelphinae wrote:
Are those numbers confirmed? Unlucky roll on everything else has been 4 over the lucky number. Not saying it hasn't happened, but it seems odd for SE to change the formula.

No testing is needed, as the game gives us the lucky/unlucky numbers at the top of the screen when you highlight the ability in the phantom roll menu.

Edit: fail2quote

Edited, Jun 26th 2010 2:12am by AniRedMage
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#12 Jun 28 2010 at 7:34 PM Rating: Decent
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Do we know the methods that were used to test these rolls?
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