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#1502 Aug 05 2015 at 9:27 AM Rating: Good
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Samira wrote:
Timelordwho wrote:
You know, we could probably get a forum regular to the RNC debates if a poll were published that included them but not trump in the top 10. Would be pretty easy with the margin of error being what it is.

You sure you don't want to run, Samira?



I'd rather run as a Democrat, out-crazying the likes of Trump and hopefully drawing the full ire of the pack. Kavekkk, want to be my campaign manager? We can make a big scandal out of your non-citizen status.


Crazy isn't a feature for the Dem nomination.

Manic cult of personality will give you a shot at the R, esp. If you can promise some kind of libertarian dictatorship.
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#1503 Aug 05 2015 at 9:29 AM Rating: Excellent
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But that's why it works! They'll never see it coming. /maniacal laughter
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#1504 Aug 05 2015 at 9:36 AM Rating: Good
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Best I can do is a cabinet office, Kissinger.
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#1505 Aug 05 2015 at 9:54 AM Rating: Excellent
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I pledge that in my administration, "Cabinet position" will actually mean something kinky.
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#1506 Aug 05 2015 at 10:15 AM Rating: Good
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Instead of that, you should have actual cabinets. A trusty armoire for secretary of defense.
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#1507 Aug 05 2015 at 10:15 AM Rating: Excellent
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I'll donate 15 minutes of my time to get delegates in Canada. Doesn't seem helpful, but you know.
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#1508 Aug 05 2015 at 10:55 AM Rating: Excellent
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lolgaxe wrote:
Instead of that, you should have actual cabinets. A trusty armoire for secretary of defense.



The Surgeon General post will henceforth be known as the Medicine Cabinet.

*pause for applause*

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#1509 Aug 05 2015 at 11:03 AM Rating: Excellent
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I have a China cabinet for State.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#1510 Aug 05 2015 at 11:56 AM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
Are there four remaining candidates? I only know of Sanders and O"Malley and O'Malley is polling at something like 1%. Oh, wait, what's his face from Virginia is running. Webb. So Webb with 1% and O'Malley with 1%.

Yes, if Clinton was to be eaten by a tiger in January, Sanders would have a huge advantage given that he's been ramping up his campaign with all the (unexpected) support he's been seeing since entering.
Sanders (specifically) having that advantage doesn't translate into victory. HRC supporters would have to go somewhere and there is absolutely no evidence that they would go to Sanders, especially the Obama minority coalition.

Jophiel wrote:
That's like asking if you can race your Geo Metro across country faster if the Ferrari crashes and your only competition left is a Mustang. Driving against the Mustang doesn't make your Metro move any faster, the problem is that you need an upgraded, better car.
Sanders isn't a Mustang. His support isn't unexpected, because it's all hype in an essentially 2 person race. If you don't like HRC, then the only other person is Sanders. As mentioned, most if not all of his support are Warren supporters. It's not a coincidence that when her "run Warren run" group quit, Sanders support went up.

If HRC were replaced by Warren, Sanders would be in a distant second. To believe otherwise is just denial. Biden might not be able to pull that off, but Warren could.
#1511 Aug 05 2015 at 12:28 PM Rating: Excellent
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Sanders is a Mustang compared to any other Democratic campaign operation right now besides Clinton's. You keep confusing general polling with campaign mechanics.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#1512 Aug 05 2015 at 12:44 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
Sanders is a Mustang
That's being generous, even if you meant a type of horse.
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#1513 Aug 05 2015 at 12:55 PM Rating: Excellent
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Dude is HUNG
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#1514 Aug 05 2015 at 1:03 PM Rating: Good
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That didn't help Carlos Danger.
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#1515 Aug 05 2015 at 2:34 PM Rating: Good
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Samira wrote:
I pledge that in my administration, "Cabinet position" will actually mean something kinky.


I claim Minister of Internal Affairs or Foreign Affairs.

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#1517 Aug 05 2015 at 2:52 PM Rating: Excellent
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Foreign affairs, eh? I knew you had a thing for Putin.
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#1518 Aug 05 2015 at 2:56 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
Sanders is a Mustang compared to any other Democratic campaign operation right now besides Clinton's. You keep confusing general polling with campaign mechanics.
I understand the difference. You're living in a fantasy world where the status of Sanders's Democratic campaign will deter a single Warren supporter if she were to run. Doubly as fictional if you think the DEM party wouldn't jump ship and support a candidate who stands a better chance of winning the general election. "But. but.. but.. what about all of that money Sanders spent, all $20k (which came from small donations)".
#1519 Aug 05 2015 at 3:18 PM Rating: Excellent
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What joph is saying is that the support of the people don't matter if you don't have the campaign infrastructure set up so those votes actually count.
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#1520 Aug 05 2015 at 3:39 PM Rating: Default
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That was close. Almost responded to an Admin..
#1521 Aug 05 2015 at 3:41 PM Rating: Excellent
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I'm not an admin, and we've already been over this, you can respond to me. Last time you said, ok you'd make an exception.
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#1522 Aug 05 2015 at 3:43 PM Rating: Excellent
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Almalieque wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
Sanders is a Mustang compared to any other Democratic campaign operation right now besides Clinton's. You keep confusing general polling with campaign mechanics.
I understand the difference.

Good to know.
Quote:
You're living in a fantasy world where the status of Sanders's Democratic campaign will deter a single Warren supporter if she were to run.

Oh. guess not.
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Belkira wrote:
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#1523 Aug 05 2015 at 3:47 PM Rating: Excellent
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Besides I thought we were talking about Biden, not Warren
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#1524 Aug 05 2015 at 4:01 PM Rating: Excellent
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Yeah, I didn't feel like editing but I was wondering about the insistance on making it Warren vs Sanders as well when the original point was that Biden needs to decide soon.

That said, Jesus Christ, Lamb of God could descend from Heaven at a certain point and not be able to successfully run the ballot. Also, he'd get arrested for being an illegal immigrant drug rapist.
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Belkira wrote:
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#1525 Aug 05 2015 at 4:12 PM Rating: Good
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Sir Xsarus wrote:
What joph is saying is that the support of the people don't matter if you don't have the campaign infrastructure set up so those votes actually count.


Yeah, this. As Joph very clearly pointed out earlier, even campaigns that don't wait until the last minute can have issues getting sufficient signatures to qualify for ballots in some state primaries. Each state is a little bit different and you have to account for that. You have to have people on the ground in every single state drumming up support. I think Alma believes that there's some central place a candidate goes and just puts his name on a list and that magically puts him on the ballot everywhere. It doesn't work that way. The federal stuff is necessary because there are legal restrictions placed on people running for office at the federal level. But the big time and money expense is the states. We don't technically have federal elections in this country. We call them that, they are for folks serving at the federal level, but all elections are held in each state. The citizens of each state elect their representatives to congress, and their representatives (delegates) in the electoral college (which goes on to actually elect a president, arguably the only actual "federal election" in our system).

For primaries (typically, again each state is a bit different), you don't just collect popular votes, with the person with the most "winning" (are there states with winner take all rules? No clue). There are appointed delegates for each campaign among people from that state who basically represent the share of support for said candidate in that state. The voting determines how many of that candidates delegates are then seated in the convention (again, representing that state on behalf of that candidate). Then, at the convention, the delegates determine who the nominee is by voting. The reason for this system is that candidates can drop out of the race, at which point the delegates they won earlier in various states don't just disappear. They can shift their support to another candidate (and can change their minds about this at any point). This allows for flexibility in the primary process, and can result in some interesting wheeling and dealing at the convention, but the main upshot is that if you don't take the time to build a campaign infrastructure in a state, you wont have delegates no matter how well you poll or how much the people want to support you (or, in Alma's scenario, how badly someone else's campaign implodes).

I mean, I suppose we could imagine some bizarre scenario where Clinton runs unopposed for awhile, then something happens that totally crashes her campaign, forcing her to withdraw (the only way this works), and in that case, any random person who qualifies as a candidate in the convention could potentially scoop up her delegates. But... Um... I don't think that's ever happened and it seems pretty massively unlikely. Clinton has issues, but her issues are pretty well known. Seems unlikely that there could be some skeleton in her closet so massive that it could cause something like this. But that's about the only scenario where "wait for the other guy to implode" could possibly work for someone who waits much past the time point we're at right now.
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#1526 Aug 05 2015 at 5:05 PM Rating: Default
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Sir Xsarus wrote:
Besides I thought we were talking about Biden, not Warren
My apologies. I vaguely remember that conversation, so I'll take your word for it.

To address your concern, I know that's what he's saying. I'm saying that in this particular case, he is blatantly wrong. He's not using drop dead deadlines and mathematics for his argument, but conceptually arguing that it is statistically impossible for a candidate to do a late bid and win against someone with such a lead in the campaign. In that case, it doesn't matter if we're talking about Biden, Warren or Michelle Obama.

While what he is saying is probably true most of the time, it isn't with Sanders in this particular field. All of his support is either "pro Warren" or "anti-Hillary". Not many people are actually supporting Sanders because of Sanders. With that being said, a strong candidate can indeed jump in the race at the last moment where s/he is on the ballot and win.
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