Speculation Analysis (FFXIV)  

The Internet is serious business, and so is Final Fantasy XIV. We want to know everything there is to know about the game, and damn it, we want to know now! Sometimes, though, serious news gives way to rampant rumors and wild speculation. Deciding whether an ear-catching tidbit is fantastic or fantasy sometimes requires careful analysis. That's what this page is for. Each week we'll dissect the latest rumors and speculation surrounding Final Fantasy XIV. We'll tell you what we think, even if what you think is all that really matters. Remember -- if it's not real news, then you can read about it here!

This Week's Rumor: Public Beta this Fall?

The Rumor: Final Fantasy XIV public beta may begin in September 2009. Propagators of this rumor point to job postings on Square Enix's European Web site, which they see as grounds for the assumption that a Final Fantasy XI GM and game testers will be moved to provide staff for the Final Fantasy XIV beta.

Evidence

Analysis

Since the foundation for this rumor is based upon the assumption that a GM and game testers for Final Fantasy XI in London are being moved over to test Final Fantasy XIV, we will first look into another possible explanation for such a job posting. While one could argue that a replacement position typically doesn't state a starting date four months down the line, it's entirely possible the current GM is planning to relocate in a few months, thus advertising for the position is open now. As is true for any workplace, hiring can be a long and tedious process. There are also two game tester jobs for FFXI listed.

In addition to the these jobs is another interesting position advertised for a German Online QA Coordinator that states, "Co-ordination of the quality assurance (QA) process for a brand-new Square Enix online title" under the job description. This position is advertised with a start date of July 2009, which could indicate the need for a supervisor during alpha testing. Three months of alpha testing for a yet unreleased MMORPG seems carelessly optimistic.

Something else to ponder is why these positions are only posted on the European site and not for Square Enix's two other headquarters. Is the London office simply quicker in posting jobs? Is the hiring process longer in the UK? Does Square Enix hire through a staffing agency in the United States, thus explaining the absence of similar position listings? If this were for FFXIV, wouldn't all three offices be expanding their staff?

In reality, all companies have employee turnaround and they must recruit to replace these employees. While it's possible that the game testers are being moved on to assist with FFXIV, these FFXI jobs are listed to start June 2009, while the FFXIV QA Manager position starts July 2009. It's more likely that additional testers are needed to help test the upcoming mini expansion, A Moogle Kupo d'Etat, especially given the fact that the game tester jobs are project-based.

Another argument is that the game has been in development for years and is therefore close to being done. While FFXIV has reportedly been in development since 2005, Hiromichi Tanaka stated in an interview with Allakhazam.com at Fan Festival 2007[1] that the same team working on developing FFXI was developing FFXIV. This means that while FFXIV has been in development for four years, a team working on two MMO titles at the same time will likely greatly increase the development time of the new title and the existing one as well. This is already evident by the decreasing frequency of version updates in FFXI.

The Tokyo Game Show is set to take place from September 24-27, which will likely be the stage for Square Enix's next big reveal about the game. Having a beta take place before then would be like putting the cart before the horse. With no requests from Square Enix for PC specs from potential testers, it's safe to assume that a selection process based on newsletter subscribers is not feasible.

Since there are translations that can support either argument, the developer interview points cancel themselves out.

Verdict

The first announcement of the game came at E3 on June 2, 2009, a mere three weeks ago. Assuming that a public beta will be available four months after the announcement of the game is bordering on preposterous and assumes an exceptional degree of efficiency that is completely unheard of in the current MMO market.

The ZAM team feels that it's more likely that a beta announcement will be made at the Tokyo Game Show, which will hopefully include details such as PC requirements, beta signup details, and a tentative schedule for testing. If not, another trailer to obsess over surely wouldn't hurt.

Rumor Archives

Coming Soon!

Final Fantasy XIV Wikibase™