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The unfairness of mog bonanza towards PS2 playersFollow

#102 Jul 01 2008 at 11:26 AM Rating: Decent
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1,428 posts
Thayos wrote:
I'm sorry, I still don't see the huge foul here.

The moogles did their jobs. They gave you marbles with numbers on them. Because separate drawings were held for each category, your EOEOE number had the exact same chance to be picked as my OEOEE number.

The only way anyone could have possibly been "wronged" by this is if the moogle gave you DUPLICATE marbles.

Also, lets not forget... these were not secret numbers! Everyone had equal opportunity to look at their numbers, and decide whether to keep them.

Anyone who didn't like their EOEOE marbles could have dropped them to choose new marbles.


EDIT: If the winning numbers were not randomly generated, then yeah, that would be unfair, if some numbers never had a chance of winning to begin with. But, that's a separate issue.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 11:54am by Thayos


I did get some marbles that were duplicates. I did notice it at the time the marbles were given. I decided to keep the duplicates as I figured if it won, then I would have 2. I did not pay close enough attn at time of marbles given to notice the even odd pattern, In fact I was not looking for a pattern as I believed it to be as random as possible. I do know that a computer generated random is not truly random, but it should be programmed in a way that a user can not notice a pattern, thus I did not look for one.

edit: re-reading my list, I actually had 1 number 3 times "randomly" generated, was 65636

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 3:33pm by shibaaa
#103 Jul 01 2008 at 11:31 AM Rating: Decent
NEWS FLASH

no where, at all did it say the moogle's numbers were RANDOM. all it said was

Playonline.com wrote:
If you can't decide on a number, we moogles will be more than happy to pick one for you.


In all honesty I think this is more of a mistake than some bullsh*t conspiracy like some SE haters are claiming.

*edit* I have one duplicate marble set, but not on the same character. meh.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 1:32pm by Lienna
#104 Jul 01 2008 at 11:31 AM Rating: Decent
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1,428 posts
kappachan, Eater of Souls wrote:
I am curious. Of the PS2 players who used the randomly generated number, how many got 12121 or 43434, or in that kind of number order?


Of the 60 marbles i did I got a 61610 and a 41610 and a 61650 and a 65636 the 65636 is the one I got on 2 seperate characters.

oh wait, correction just looked more closely and the 65636 I have on 3 characters.
#105 Jul 01 2008 at 11:57 AM Rating: Excellent
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147 posts
To the person that asked about a lot of people seem to be only being one number off, that's simple math. There are roughly 45 numbers that are "1 digit off" of the grand prize (9 other chances in those 5 different positions). There is a lot higher chance of having one of those 45 combos then the 1 winning combo.
#106 Jul 01 2008 at 12:01 PM Rating: Default
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29,633 posts
Lienna the Sly wrote:
NEWS FLASH

no where, at all did it say the moogle's numbers were RANDOM.


Cop-out. Insta-fail.

Go join Theonehio and that other guy I forget the name of in the corner.


Quote:
In all honesty I think this is more of a mistake than some bullsh*t conspiracy like some SE haters are claiming.


In all honesty, I don't think you know SE very well.
#107 Jul 01 2008 at 12:06 PM Rating: Decent
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502 posts
I have a question, as I'm not even close to a programmer. Yet, why would the number generator have a formula? Why not just create random numbers regardless?

I mean, if I'm adjusting code (or w/e they needed to do) and I'm coming up with a way for the numbers to be picked by the moogle, it would seem completely obvious to make it as random as possible.

It seems to me that you'd try to get as far away as possible from any kind of pattern.

I'm sure there is a reason, but I can't think of one.


edit: I fail at english, typing and spelling.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 3:10pm by TrotterOfSylph
#108 Jul 01 2008 at 12:08 PM Rating: Good
Fynlar wrote:
Lienna the Sly wrote:
NEWS FLASH

no where, at all did it say the moogle's numbers were RANDOM.


Cop-out. Insta-fail.

Go join Theonehio and that other guy I forget the name of in the corner.


Quote:
In all honesty I think this is more of a mistake than some bullsh*t conspiracy like some SE haters are claiming.


In all honesty, I don't think you know SE very well.


oh excuse me, Fynlar, master of all that is SE and SE related thinking, please enlighten us using your great hoard of knowledge about what SE's dark intentions are and the secret to the universe.
#109 Jul 01 2008 at 12:10 PM Rating: Default
TrotterOfSylph wrote:
I have a question, as I'm not even close to a programmer. Yet, why would the number generator have a formula. Why not just creat random numbers regardless?

I mean, if I'm adjusting code (or w/e they needed to do) and I'm coming up with a way for the numbers to be picked by the moogle, it would seem completely obvious to make it as random as possible. It seems to me that the you'd try to get as far away as possible from any kind of pattern.

I'm sure there is a reason, but I can't think of one.


thats why I think it was jsut some bumbling mistake, they may have been doing something clever and didnt do it right, thus skewing the numbers the moogles handed out.
#110 Jul 01 2008 at 12:12 PM Rating: Default
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29,633 posts
Quote:
I have a question, as I'm not even close to a programmer. Yet, why would the number generator have a formula. Why not just creat random numbers regardless?

I mean, if I'm adjusting code (or w/e they needed to do) and I'm coming up with a way for the numbers to be picked by the moogle, it would seem completely obvious to make it as random as possible. It seems to me that the you'd try to get as far away as possible from any kind of pattern.

I'm sure there is a reason, but I can't think of one.


There isn't any reason, other than wanting to make a RNG that appears random but really is not. Which you would do if you were trying to cheat people.

And yes, it's not just something that slips into the "R"NG code somehow either, it was purposely designed as such, which just sets off the ******** alarms for me. I honestly don't see how it doesn't do the same for everyone else.
#111 Jul 01 2008 at 12:14 PM Rating: Default
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Quote:
oh excuse me, Fynlar, master of all that is SE and SE related thinking, please enlighten us using your great hoard of knowledge about what SE's dark intentions are and the secret to the universe.


Oh, give me a break. You act like it takes a ****** rocket scientist to see that there's obviously been foul play going on here.

Quote:
thats why I think it was jsut some bumbling mistake, they may have been doing something clever and didnt do it right, thus skewing the numbers the moogles handed out.


Yeah, something "clever". Uh-huh.

Kiss-***.
#112 Jul 01 2008 at 12:15 PM Rating: Good
ITT: We discover how many ratedowns it takes to get Fynlar into sub-scholar status. Smiley: lol
#113 Jul 01 2008 at 12:17 PM Rating: Decent
Fynlar wrote:
Quote:
I have a question, as I'm not even close to a programmer. Yet, why would the number generator have a formula. Why not just creat random numbers regardless?

I mean, if I'm adjusting code (or w/e they needed to do) and I'm coming up with a way for the numbers to be picked by the moogle, it would seem completely obvious to make it as random as possible. It seems to me that the you'd try to get as far away as possible from any kind of pattern.

I'm sure there is a reason, but I can't think of one.


There isn't any reason, other than wanting to make a RNG that appears random but really is not. Which you would do if you were trying to cheat people.

And yes, it's not just something that slips into the "R"NG code somehow either, it was purposely designed as such, which just sets off the bullsh*t alarms for me. I honestly don't see how it doesn't do the same for everyone else.


IMO I think they were trying to do something clever and ****** it up. Who cares about cheating people out of a few thousand gil? One thing I do know about SE thats true with any other MMO company and that is they want money. They liked the monthly fee they got from all those fresh content IDs whether it was from PS2 or PC subscribers. I would say that is the real reason for this bonanza with a side order of hoping to bolster the dwindling economy some by putting back some of the gil they have been removing.
#114 Jul 01 2008 at 12:18 PM Rating: Decent
Fynlar wrote:
Quote:
oh excuse me, Fynlar, master of all that is SE and SE related thinking, please enlighten us using your great hoard of knowledge about what SE's dark intentions are and the secret to the universe.


Oh, give me a break. You act like it takes a @#%^in rocket scientist to see that there's obviously been foul play going on here.

Quote:
thats why I think it was jsut some bumbling mistake, they may have been doing something clever and didnt do it right, thus skewing the numbers the moogles handed out.


Yeah, something "clever". Uh-huh.

Kiss-***.


yes a kiss-***, because SE rewards kiss-asses with winning mog bonanza numbers and free relics.. yarly.
#115 Jul 01 2008 at 12:23 PM Rating: Default
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29,633 posts
Quote:
IMO I think they were trying to do something clever and @#%^ed it up.


There isn't anything "clever" about a RNG. At least not anymore. At least there isn't supposed to be.

Maybe a few decades ago, it would be some pretty high-tech stuff.


Quote:
ITT: We discover how many ratedowns it takes to get Fynlar into sub-scholar status.


ITT: You'll discover that I stopped caring about karma about 16k posts ago.

I'm not afraid to speak the truth, even if I know people don't like to hear it.
#116 Jul 01 2008 at 12:27 PM Rating: Excellent
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1,519 posts
My numbers:
92163
21816
67274
09230
36547
36361
67458
72129
16905
25472

And finally, 12147 x10 on my mule.

All the numbers follow the pattern described.

Now, I'm not accusing SE of rigging the winning numbers; there's no proof. But the specific pattern that seems to permeate PS2 users and not the other platforms? Goof or not, that doesn't seem right.

And before you bring up the "Moogle only picks the numbers, never said random" idea... why isn't the pattern on the PC or 360 numbers chosen like this, then?

I could care less about winning. I just want this topic to be addressed by SE.

Hell, if only so we don't see more of these threads. >:D
#117 Jul 01 2008 at 12:27 PM Rating: Default
Fynlar wrote:
I'm not afraid to speak the truth, even if I know people don't like to hear it.
If only it really was.
#118 Jul 01 2008 at 12:27 PM Rating: Good
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3,492 posts
Duke Ikkian wrote:
kappachan, Eater of Souls wrote:
I am curious. Of the PS2 players who used the randomly generated number, how many got 12121 or 43434, or in that kind of number order?
Probably next to none, but let's see nonetheless.

That's the kind of combination I got.
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#119 Jul 01 2008 at 12:29 PM Rating: Default
kappachan, Eater of Souls wrote:
Duke Ikkian wrote:
kappachan, Eater of Souls wrote:
I am curious. Of the PS2 players who used the randomly generated number, how many got 12121 or 43434, or in that kind of number order?
Probably next to none, but let's see nonetheless.

That's the kind of combination I got.
Interesting. Anyone else got that?
#120REDACTED, Posted: Jul 01 2008 at 12:31 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) If you think it cost nothing to generate and give out gil/items in this event, you don't understand the cost of running a business. How many meetings do you think they had to have over this event? All of which invloved hundereds on man hours with FFXI executives who make more than most do. It will more than likely cost SE/PO several hundred thousand(if not more) in CSR to listen to and respond to calls/emails/etc of people crying that they were somehow wronged in this event and demand retribution etc... not to mention the cost to create & impliment the event.
#121 Jul 01 2008 at 12:31 PM Rating: Default
Donomni wrote:
My numbers:
92163
21816
67274
09230
36547
36361
67458
72129
16905
25472

And finally, 12147 x10 on my mule.

All the numbers follow the pattern described.

Now, I'm not accusing SE of rigging the winning numbers; there's no proof. But the specific pattern that seems to permeate PS2 users and not the other platforms? Goof or not, that doesn't seem right.

And before you bring up the "Moogle only picks the numbers, never said random" idea... why isn't the pattern on the PC or 360 numbers chosen like this, then?
I could care less about winning. I just want this topic to be addressed by SE.

Hell, if only so we don't see more of these threads. >:D


This is what I cant figure out...they are all on the same servers as the rest of us. Perhaps it has to do with the PS2 itself? something somehwat common in creating a program that will generate a random number is using the CPU clock cycles, could there be something with how the PS2 works that is messing up the numbers? Too bad someone can't test that with a modded Ps2 or something heh that would certainly make for a good answer.
#122 Jul 01 2008 at 12:32 PM Rating: Decent
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142 posts
Quote:
I could care less about winning. I just want this topic to be addressed by SE.

Hell, if only so we don't see more of these threads. >:D


i'd like to see less topics about this as well.

i'm baffled that people actually went through all this trouble to sit down and figure out that there was a pattern to the mog's choices.

if you didnt win, you didnt win, SE isnt going to scale back the event or hand out more freebies so i dont know what people are expecting out of threads like these
#123 Jul 01 2008 at 12:32 PM Rating: Decent
spcwill wrote:
Quote:
Except that it costs SE nothing to pay out to the winners. It's hard to "make out like Vegas" when the money you "save" is cash that you can create out of thin air any time you like.

And, beyond that, a quick look at the odds -- which are significantly in the player's favour -- makes it fairly obvious that SE wants to add gil to the game with this event. Not only is there no profit in holding on to an item that you can create as you please, but there is also no advantage in holding on to cash when your goal was to distribute it.


If you think it cost nothing to generate and give out gil/items in this event, you don't understand the cost of running a business. How many meetings do you think they had to have over this event? All of which invloved hundereds on man hours with FFXI executives who make more than most do. It will more than likely cost SE/PO several hundred thousand(if not more) in CSR to listen to and respond to calls/emails/etc of people crying that they were somehow wronged in this event and demand retribution etc... not to mention the cost to create & impliment the event.

As for myself, I don't think it was done in malice, more then likely it was just an error in programming...a decimal in the wrong spot or some such thing.

I find it hard to beleive that the dev team thought all this up with the intent of ******** over PS2 players. It sucks to be one of those affected but to be honest, if you expect something to come of this you are diluding yourself.

The lottery has a "Play for entertainment, not investment purposes" disclaimer, that is the most you will ever see from SE.

Bottom line if you want a challenging game with a poor customer support, play FFXI. If you want a easy game with fairly good customer support, play WoW.


Executives and programmers get paid whether they are in meetings or not.
#124 Jul 01 2008 at 12:36 PM Rating: Good
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858 posts
Fynlar wrote:
There isn't any reason, other than wanting to make a RNG that appears random but really is not. Which you would do if you were trying to cheat people.


Do you really think they specifically targeted the PS2 players to keep them from winning the lottery? Really?

Three reasons that makes it clear to me they didn't do it deliberately:

1) SE has nothing to gain from rigging this contest. There's no question they screwed up; I just don't see what they have to gain from doing it deliberately. What possible reason would SE have to rig this contest? From their (real world) business model, the amount of gil injected/removed from the FFXI economy has little direct impact. In fact, if they were going to rig the contest, it would make more sense to me if they maximized the number of winners, so as to make that many more players happy they won something, thereby prolonging their FFXI subscriptions.

2) There are enough people posting shots of losing marbles, and enough people who play this game with entirely too much time on their hands, that they had to know that something as simple as this EOEOE/OEOEO would be discovered.

3) If they were going to rig the game by reviewing the numbers later and picking a number with a very low frequency, they wouldn't have bothered mucking up the RNG in the first place.

For those reasons, I would believe incompetence over malfeasance in this instance.

Fynlar wrote:
I'm not afraid to speak the truth, even if I know people don't like to hear it.


You really need to loosen the screws on your tinfoil hat.
#125 Jul 01 2008 at 12:44 PM Rating: Decent
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361 posts
TrotterOfSylph wrote:
I have a question, as I'm not even close to a programmer. Yet, why would the number generator have a formula? Why not just create random numbers regardless?


Everything in software is a formula or algorithm of some sort. The reason for this is that everything in a computer has to be finite. Everything that happens is controlled by tiny details that’s must be explicitly defined by a programmer at some point. That’s why random number generators aren't really random at all. (Sometimes those tiny details add up to create a software program that works as intended. Sometimes they add up and do nothing even close to what was expected.)

For random number generators, most are constructed using mathematical formulas which actually don't change in structure at all from calculation to calculation. However, some of the variables within are changed 'randomly'. Confused? Hehe.

The randomness of the variables is usually taken from the system clock or something similar that can almost be guaranteed to be different from the last time you looked at it (something that changes naturally, like time). Because some of the variables are random, the formula spits out a number that is usually wildly different each time (within limits of course), then that number is usually modded (in other words, the remainder is taken by dividing that number by the maximum number acceptable). This guarantees a number between zero and the max number you want.

As far as why SE coded in some sort of pattern, I have no idea. It was either intentional, or the little pieces came together to produce an unexpected result, in which case, one would hope they would catch it, but maybe not.

Edited, Jul 1st 2008 2:49pm by sodenke
#126REDACTED, Posted: Jul 01 2008 at 12:44 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Note to self, never ask Lienna to be the CFO of any future company you may create.
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