Jophiel wrote:
Things that don't hurt Trump:
Pope-fights
Previous support for abortion rights
Saying that Bush caused 9/11
Being a billionaire
Calling McCain a wuss
Calling to deport all the Muslims and Mexicans
Fighting with FOX and Megyn Kelly
Skipping debates
Um... Because his largest support comes from people outside the Republican party, for whom a candidate tweaking the noses of the GOP is actually a positive, not a negative. Where he's going to get into trouble is when we head into actual closed caucuses and primaries, where only registered Republicans can participate. Combine this with what is almost certainly going to be a wave of mainstream support flowing to Rubio, and I'm not sure that a mere 10 point lead in SC, where everything favored Trump, is going to cut it.
I do find it funny to watch the pundits trying to scratch their heads and figure out how Trump did so well in counties with such high evangelical voters. The whole time I'm watching them doing this, I'm practically screaming at the TV: "You're looking at a Republican county map. Go pull up the Democrat map of what voters exist in which counties, and it'll suddenly make sense". Once you realize that Trump is actively working to appeal to liberal voters, his victories in NH and SC make a lot more sense, as well as the apparent lack of negative impact his very non conservative statements and actions have had.
He's been shedding conservative support over the last couple weeks, but picking up liberal support as he does so. Which works for him in NH and SC, and if the normal math of "candidate who does that well in the first 3 races will pick up endorsements and momentum to carry him through to a landslide victory" that would seem to be a great tactic. But that past pattern assumes that everyone in the GOP pack are relatively close in terms of perceived ideological position, with only minor differences in voting record, experience, positions, etc, so there are a large number of voters who are willing to shift from one candidate to another as events in the primaries unfold. That's just not the case here. Trump doesn't get "momentum" from the right by these wins. He merely holds his numbers. Which can also work as long as the rest of the field remains divided. I think that Rubio's strong second place, well above polled expectations, is going to change things quite a bit though. There's a good chunk of Cruz voters who poll for him, not because they like him or agree with his positions, but because they perceive him as the best chance to beat Trump. It's likely at least some of those will shift to Rubio now that Bush is out of the race. And while a bit early for this to be a major effect, some of Trumps support may erode there as well. There's always a percent that jump onto a candidate purely because he's the one they've heard the most about, he's the one polling best, etc. Some folks just like to be on the winning side, but if they see someone else challenging that current leader, will switch if there are other factors involved (like say not really liking at all what Trump said in the last debate).
Trump's cap, especially among conservative voters, is relatively low. I'm pretty sure he's going to do far less well in Nevada than he (or most pundits) think. Never know for sure, of course. I honestly was very very happy with the results in SC on Saturday, and think this marks a turning point in the campaign. How fast and strongly things turn is still up for debate though.
Edited, Feb 22nd 2016 1:50pm by gbaji 
Pope-fights 
