If you only get skill up on falures when within 5 levels of the cap, smithing can't be higher than 7. I just got 2 skill up's on failures @ smithing level 2.
Skill-ups from fails can only be gained within five levels of the synth's cap. Based on your fail, the smith cap is 11 at the highest. 10 seems like a fair estimate.
I was synthing this for carpenter's guild GP. I'm level 62 wood and 24 smith. I got 11 NQs and 1 HQ with 0 breaks and 0 smithing skill ups. So, I think the smithing cap on this is much lower. I think its most likely somewhere between 20 and 24.